812
FXUS62 KRAH 061756
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
155 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
MILD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF NEW ENGLAND AND NOSING SW
THROUGH NC IS TOPPED BY A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER E NC. A SUBTLE INVERTED TROUGH SITS JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ACCORDING TO RAP-BASED MACHINE ANALYSIS, CONFIRMED BY VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LONG-FETCH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO OUR
SOUTH AND A CORRESPONDING STREAM OF HIGHER PW SWEEPING ONSHORE OVER
SC AND INTO SW NC IS HELPING TO ENHANCE CLOUDS IN OUR S, WHERE
CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY BKN-OVC, WHILE ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NC,
MOSTLY SCATTERED FLAT DAYTIME CU IS OBSERVED. THESE CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH A GRADUAL DISSIPATION
TOWARD EVENING, INCLUDING IN OUR S AS THE BETTER PW IS EXPECTED TO
ADVECT FURTHER W OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
OFF NEW ENGLAND DRIFTS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT WHILE STILL NOSING INTO OUR
AREA, THE LONG-FETCH ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST, AND THIS LOW LEVEL E-
ESE FLOW UP AND OVER A WEAK STABLE POOL OVER THE PIEDMONT SHOULD
RESULT IN SHALLOW MOIST UPGLIDE AROUND 295K-300K FOCUSED FROM OUR N
SECTIONS INTO THE SANDHILLS, AND THIS SHOULD CULMINATE IN AREAS OF
FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK, MAINLY ALONG AND E OF HWY 1. THIS SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS (AND THEIR TRENDS)
AND THE REFS WHICH SHOWS A MORE THAN 60% PROBABILITY OF LESS THAN A
HALF MILE VSBY EARLY TUE MORNING OVER THE N AND CENTRAL COASTAL
PLAIN, SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF FOG MAINLY IN THE E LATE
TONIGHT. AFTER WARM HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, EXPECT
TEMPS TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING, IN THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S. -GIH
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 155 PM MONDAY...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE FURTHER OFFSHORE, STEADY
VEERING AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BOOST WAA
INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOO
LOCKS THROUGH SE IA TO CENTRAL KS AND N TX, AND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE E GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, AND CENTRAL MISS VALLEY
DURING THE DAY TUE. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG AND SHALLOW STRATUS LIFT
AND BREAK UP, WE SHOULD HAVE A PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES,
PERHAPS MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON IN OUR SE BENEATH THE
LINGERING MID LEVEL RIDGE WHERE PW WILL BE LOWER. FURTHER W AND NW,
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A PLUME OF ABOVE-
NORMAL PW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SPREAD INTO
THE W AND N PIEDMONT LATE TUE BUT PARTICULARLY TUE NIGHT. MODELS
GENERALLY FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING INTO OUR NW AFTER
NIGHTFALL, WITH THE BEST CHANCES (RISING TO 35-50%) ARRIVING IN THE
TRIAD OVERNIGHT. THE LOSS OF HEATING COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL MID
LEVEL WARMTH THIS FAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT ANY
CAPE TUE NIGHT, SO WILL CARRY PRECIP CHARACTER AS JUST SHOWERS.
HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, FOLLOWED BY
MILDER LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, WITH SKIES TRENDING TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST. -GIH
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 146 PM MONDAY...
* RAIN CHANCES STILL FAVORED WED INTO WED NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT,
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK
* UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING A WEEKEND COASTAL LOW AND HOW FAR
WEST PRECIPITATION MAY SET UP
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH WED NIGHT AS A TROUGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA THE MID-ATLANTIC DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER, SPC DOES HIGHLIGHT THE POOR LAPSE RATES THAT SHOULD
INHIBIT ANY SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. TIMING-WISE, MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO FALL DURING THE DAY INTO THE MID EVENING
HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO VARY AMONGST THE GUIDANCE, BUT ANYWHERE
FROM A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE
TEMPERED BY CLOUDS, WITH LOW TO MID 70S N TO LOW 80S IN THE SOUTH.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A CHILLY AND DRY 1034 MB HIGH NOSES DOWN FROM THE
NORTH, RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRI IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL STALL OUT SOMEWHERE
ALONG OFF THE SE US COAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS STILL VARY ON THE OVERALL OUTCOME, BUT THERE IS
AGREEMENT THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP EITHER JUST ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS OR FURTHER EAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE SAT TO MON PERIOD. THIS APPEARS IN RESPONSE TO A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE SE US AND PERHAPS BECOMING ENHANCED
WITH A LATER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IN THE OH VALLEY. THE AI-GFS, ECMWF
AI, AND OPERATIONAL GFS ALL SHOW THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHICH
WOULD FAVOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER MOST AREAS BUT ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAIN TIED TO THE DEFORMATION BAND. THE CANADIAN IS
FURTHER EAST AND WOULD FAVOR A DRIER SOLUTION. TOO EARLY TO TELL
WHAT WILL HAPPEN BUT BEARS WATCHING. EITHER WAY, HIGHS WILL STAY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 146 PM MONDAY...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY: VFR FLT CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT E TO SE WIND ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE DURING A
3-HOUR PERIOD FROM 10-12Z TUESDAY WHEN MVFR CRITERIA FOG (LOCALLY
IFR) IS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KRWI, KFAY, AND KRDU.
OUTLOOK: LIGHT RAIN WITH LOCALLY AND TEMPORARY REDUCED FLT
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KREN
AVIATION...NP
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