949
FXUS62 KRAH 071753
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
153 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
MILD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT, THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 125 PM TUESDAY...
* INCREASING CLOUDS OVERALL, WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FAR NW OVERNIGHT.
THE OFFSHORE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON NC AS IT
SLIDES SLOWLY FURTHER OUT TO SEA, WHILE IN THE MID LEVELS, OUR
HEIGHTS ARE GRADUALLY FALLING AS THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
SLIPS FURTHER SW WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE INCOMING
COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH SW MI AND CNTRL IN TO
CNTRL TX, WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH FROM A LOW IN FAR W KY DOWN
THROUGH MS. WE'RE FIRMLY IN THE PREFRONTAL WAA FIELD WITH SLOWLY
RISING THETA-E, ESP ACROSS OUR S AND W, ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST THETA-
E REMAINS ACROSS SC/GA INTO CNTRL TN. DEEPER PREFRONTAL MOISTURE
WILL STEADILY STREAM ACROSS W NC THIS EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL WED, AS THE MID-UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE TO OUR
NW OVERNIGHT, WITH WARM MID LEVELS/POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND LOW
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL
LATE, BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT AT 295-300K FOR CHANCE POPS WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS IN THE NW OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FROM THE TRIANGLE TO THE N
AND W. INCREASING CLOUDS TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH
RISING DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT WARM LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. -GIH
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 125 AM TUESDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REACH THE COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN
BETWEEN, THERE IS A 50-80% CHANCE OF SHOWERS, LOWEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THE RAINFALL WILL BE WELCOME, BUT WILL DO LITTLE AGAINST
THE DROUGHT, WITH TOTALS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
PRESENT. THE MORNING WILL SEE THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS WEST OF I-95,
WHILE THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS EAST OF US-1.
WHILE A SHOWER COULD PERSIST SOUTH OF US-64 IN THE EVENING,
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES - HIGHS WILL DROP SEVERAL
DEGREES WITH PRECIPITATION, RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S.
THE DROP IN LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WITH MOST LOCATIONS 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE NIGHT
BEFORE - THE FORECAST CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO THE
MID 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 125 AM TUESDAY...
* A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH MAINLY
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
* UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING A WEEKEND COASTAL LOW AND HOW FAR
WEST PRECIPITATION MAY STRETCH.
ALOFT, IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH, A S/W WILL MOVE ESEWD FROM THE TN
VALLEY TO OVER THE SOUTHEAST US THU/THU NIGHT, WHILE THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NWD OVER THE PLAINS/FRONT RANGE. ANOTHER S/W
SHOULD TRACK ACROSS SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC FRI/FRI NIGHT, WITH SOME S/W
ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND TRACKING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. AS THE NRN
S/W CONTINUES EWD ACROSS QUEBEC/THE NORTHEAST US SAT/SAT NIGHT, THE
SRN S/W SHOULD STRENGTHEN, BECOMING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
OR MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE, THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD,
EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MON. THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WRT THE LOCATION, STRENGTH, AND
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW FROM SAT NIGHT ONWARD. AT THE SURFACE, AS THE
~1034 MB HIGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/SRN ONTARIO AND
THE NORTHEAST US, IT WILL RIDGE SWD INTO THE AREA THU/FRI. HOW LONG
AND WHERE THE RIDGE LINGERS WILL DEPEND ON THE THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF A COASTAL LOW, BUT FOR NOW, IT APPEARS THE COOL, NLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, EVEN IF
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WWD TO ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. THE COASTAL
LOW, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST ON SAT,
SHOULD RAPIDLY DEEPEN SAT NIGHT/SUN AS IT LIFTS NWD TO NEAR THE NC
COAST BY SUN. THE PROGRESSION THEREAFTER REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WITH THE
GFS EVENTUALLY TAKING THE LOW NEWD AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE EC
BRINGING IT INLAND OVER THE CAROLINAS, EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION: THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN WILL BE OVER THE
WEEKEND, HIGHEST EAST, BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THE COASTAL LOW.
TEMPERATURES: BELOW NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 153 PM TUESDAY...
VFR CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS TO INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS ANOMALOUS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS CENTRAL
NC AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WRT TO HOW
LOW STRATUS MIGHT GET TONIGHT, BUT BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS NEAR SUNRISE. PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT KFAY. PRE-FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AS EARLY
AS SUNRISE AT KINT/KGSO AND PERHAPS KRDU. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE
MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS, PRECIPITATION MAY BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE ESPECIALLY AT KFAY WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD BE
POSSIBLE.
BEYOND 18Z WEDNESDAY: ANY LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LARGELY
LIFT TO VFR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
(PRIMARILY AT KFAY/KRWI). THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT,
THERE MAY BE CONCERN FOR FOG/STRATUS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE
FRONT SWEEPS DRIER AIR INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER, SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS, RAIN, AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH
A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...GREEN
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...LUCHETTI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page