990
FXUS62 KRAH 071805
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
MILD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT, THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 125 PM TUESDAY...
* INCREASING CLOUDS OVERALL, WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FAR NW OVERNIGHT.
THE OFFSHORE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON NC AS IT
SLIDES SLOWLY FURTHER OUT TO SEA, WHILE IN THE MID LEVELS, OUR
HEIGHTS ARE GRADUALLY FALLING AS THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
SLIPS FURTHER SW WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE INCOMING
COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH SW MI AND CNTRL IN TO
CNTRL TX, WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH FROM A LOW IN FAR W KY DOWN
THROUGH MS. WE'RE FIRMLY IN THE PREFRONTAL WAA FIELD WITH SLOWLY
RISING THETA-E, ESP ACROSS OUR S AND W, ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST THETA-
E REMAINS ACROSS SC/GA INTO CNTRL TN. DEEPER PREFRONTAL MOISTURE
WILL STEADILY STREAM ACROSS W NC THIS EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL WED, AS THE MID-UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE TO OUR
NW OVERNIGHT, WITH WARM MID LEVELS/POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND LOW
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL
LATE, BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT AT 295-300K FOR CHANCE POPS WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS IN THE NW OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FROM THE TRIANGLE TO THE N
AND W. INCREASING CLOUDS TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH
RISING DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT WARM LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. -GIH
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 125 AM TUESDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REACH THE COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN
BETWEEN, THERE IS A 50-80% CHANCE OF SHOWERS, LOWEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THE RAINFALL WILL BE WELCOME, BUT WILL DO LITTLE AGAINST
THE DROUGHT, WITH TOTALS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
PRESENT. THE MORNING WILL SEE THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS WEST OF I-95,
WHILE THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS EAST OF US-1.
WHILE A SHOWER COULD PERSIST SOUTH OF US-64 IN THE EVENING,
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES - HIGHS WILL DROP SEVERAL
DEGREES WITH PRECIPITATION, RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S.
THE DROP IN LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WITH MOST LOCATIONS 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE NIGHT
BEFORE - THE FORECAST CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO THE
MID 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 205 PM TUESDAY...
* BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BEHIND WEDNESDAY'S FRONT.
* A COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK.
BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD IN. THIS WILL DRY OUT THE
FORECAST AND COOL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY LOOK
TO BE UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OR IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S,
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY, INTO
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.
THIS WEEKEND, THE REGION SHOULD RETURN TO A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER AS A COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE STALLED
FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE SHOWING A CLOSER LOW
AND A WETTER SOLUTION OVER CENTRAL NC, WHILE THE ECMWF AND ITS
ENSEMBLE SHOW A FURTHER LOW THAT IS DRIER OVER THE REGION. MODELS
ALSO DIVERGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAKING THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW, THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN IS IN THE EAST AND LOOKS TO START SATURDAY NIGHT AND LAST
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODEL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS TO GET A BETTER INSIGHT ON POTENTIAL
IMPACTS TO CENTRAL NC.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 153 PM TUESDAY...
VFR CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS TO INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS ANOMALOUS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS CENTRAL
NC AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WRT TO HOW
LOW STRATUS MIGHT GET TONIGHT, BUT BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS NEAR SUNRISE. PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT KFAY. PRE-FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AS EARLY
AS SUNRISE AT KINT/KGSO AND PERHAPS KRDU. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE
MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS, PRECIPITATION MAY BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE ESPECIALLY AT KFAY WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD BE
POSSIBLE.
BEYOND 18Z WEDNESDAY: ANY LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LARGELY
LIFT TO VFR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
(PRIMARILY AT KFAY/KRWI). THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT,
THERE MAY BE CONCERN FOR FOG/STRATUS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE
FRONT SWEEPS DRIER AIR INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER, SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS, RAIN, AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH
A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...GREEN
LONG TERM...LH
AVIATION...LUCHETTI
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