614
FXUS62 KRAH 061804
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
104 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH NC THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW AND BUILD ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY, WITH FOLLOWING UNSEASONABLY MILD, SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
* FROSTY ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND NRN AND CNTL COASTAL
PLAIN TONIGHT
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDDLE ATLANTIC THIS PERIOD, BETWEEN A DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL
PROGRESS FROM THE NRN AND CNTL ROCKIES THIS MORNING TO THE MID AND
UPR MS VALLEY BY 12Z FRI. DEEP LAYER DRYNESS, CHARACTERIZED BY PWS
OF A QUARTER TO THIRD INCH THIS MORNING TO NEAR HALF AN INCH
TONIGHT, WILL RESULT OVER CNTL NC.
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHING ACROSS S-CNTL VA WILL
MOVE SOUTH AND ACROSS CNTL NC THIS MORNING. A ~1026 MB
PACIFIC HIGH NOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL FOLLOW AND BUILD ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY TODAY AND ACROSS AND QUICKLY OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC,
WHILE CONTINUING TO EXTEND WWD INTO NC, TONIGHT.
POST-FRONTAL COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION TODAY, INCLUDING A
SHORT PERIOD OF NNELY GUSTINESS WITH DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH
MIDDAY, WILL YIELD COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WED BUT STILL
SEASONABLE ONES IN THE 60S, ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 20S-30S F AND RELATED AFTERNOON RH IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30%.
TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND MOSTLY CALM, WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF THE BRIEFLY ESTABLISHED DRY AIRMASS AND LOW TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE LWR-MID 30S, EXCEPT UPR 30S TO AROUND 40 F OVER
THE URBAN TRIAD AND TRIANGLE AND ALSO THE SRN SANDHILLS AND SRN
COASTAL PLAIN. THOSE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE BEST REFLECTED BY MOS
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY THAT OF THE ECMWF AND NAM
(MET)), AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE IN RADIATIONAL COOLING REGIMES.
AREAS OF FROST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN
PIEDMONT AND NRN AND CNTL COASTAL PLAIN, WHERE A FROST ADVISORY
WILL PROBABLY BE WARRANTED.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...
WITHIN A STRONG JET FROM THE NERN PACIFIC, A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIG SEWD
INTO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS ON FRI, THEN PIVOT NEWD ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC FRI NIGHT. DOWNSTREAM OF THOSE FEATURES, MODESTLY
FALLING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS (~20-40) WILL RESULT ACROSS CNTL NC
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BUT WITH STRONGEST AND DEEPEST ASCENT FORECAST
FRI NIGHT, WHEN A BAND OF 150-175% OF NORMAL PWS WILL ALSO TRAVERSE
THE REGION.
AT THE SURFACE, THE FRONT THAT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS CNTL NC THIS
MORNING WILL RETREAT NWD ACROSS NC AS A WARM FRONT ON FRI, WITH
FOLLOWING WARMING AND MOISTENING AND THE LATTER CHARACTERIZED BY AN
INCREASE IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S, TO AROUND 60 F OR SO IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN.
STRATOCUMULUS AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS (ON AVERAGE) WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT NWD ACROSS NC ON FRI, WITH SOME DEEPER
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE REGIME OF
RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND UP TO A COUPLE OF HUNDRED J/KG
OF INSTABILITY, THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MILDER, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S NW TO LWR-MID
70S SE.
ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE OVER
CNTL NC FRI NIGHT, INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING; AND UPSTREAM
CONVECTION (MOSTLY WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS) WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME
AND SEWD EXTENT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH, MOSTLY
REMNANT AND STRATIFORM RAIN FROM MID-LEVEL CEILINGS AND EARLIER
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WHILE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, WITH
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN ONE TENTH INCH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD AND IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1100 PM WEDNESDAY...
* SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT AND AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT. A FEW
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY
* MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SAT AND SUN, THEN TURNING ABRUPTLY
COLDER MON/TUE BEHIND A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT. A HARD FREEZE MON
NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S
WARM AND ANOMALOUS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NC
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP AND
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH THAT WILL DIG INTO THE OH VALLEY, MID-
ATLANTIC AND CAROLINA REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
TROUGH WILL EXIT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SOMETIME TUESDAY AS WSW
FLOW RETURNS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT ON SAT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT JUST TO OUR NORTH
OVER VA. THE AIRMASS WARMS FROM FRI SUCH THAT WE START THE WEEKEND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S NW TO MID/UPPER 70S SE. AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE MID MS VALLEY EARLY SUN AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.
AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION AND FAVOR SOME SHOWERS LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN TIED TO SOME
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT
AND AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT, THOUGH THE ECMWF SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
WHERE GUIDANCE DOES AGREE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IS THAT THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
INTO THE NE US. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, IT WILL REMAIN WARM IN THE LOW
TO MID/UPPER 70S. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY US-1 AND EAST. WE MAY ALSO NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE ON STORMS AS A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS,
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, AND SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING DEWPOINTS
POSSIBLE REACHING THE 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MON AND TUE IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS, REACHING NEAR-MINIMUM VALUES FOR NOVEMBER. FOR CONTEXT,
THE H850 AND H700 TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE 10TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS ARE PROJECTED TO ONLY BE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S MON/TUE, SOME 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A
HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE, WITH THICKNESSES
SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 20S IN MOST AREAS TO NEAR 30 IN THE SE. THE NBM
INDICATES A NEAR 90-100 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW FREEZING VALUES.
A WARMUP MAY QUICKLY RETURN BY MIDWEEK WED UNDER A WARMER WSW FLOW,
SUPPORTING HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH TONIGHT. N/NE WINDS CURRENTLY AROUND 5-10 KTS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON, TURNING MOSTLY CALM TONIGHT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE NC/VA COAST TOMORROW
MORNING, THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN S/SE, BRINGING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. ASSOCIATED LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD
SPREAD IN SOME STRATOCUMULUS AT 2-5 KFT FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST, SO
ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT RWI WHERE CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING BEFORE 18Z IS LOWEST.
OUTLOOK: ADDITIONAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT (MAINLY NW).
THERE WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS SUNDAY
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF RAIN AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AHEAD
OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, STRONG AND GUSTY SW SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT AHEAD OF
THAT COLD FRONT ON SUN, FOLLOWED BY SIMILARLY STRONG AND GUSTY W/NW
ONES SUN NIGHT AND MON, PERHAPS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...KREN
AVIATION...DANCO/MWS
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