497
FXUS62 KRAH 061841
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
141 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WITH
FOLLOWING UNSEASONABLY MILD, SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
* FROSTY ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND NRN AND CNTL COASTAL
PLAIN TONIGHT
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDDLE ATLANTIC THIS PERIOD, BETWEEN A DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL
PROGRESS FROM THE NRN AND CNTL ROCKIES THIS MORNING TO THE MID AND
UPR MS VALLEY BY 12Z FRI. DEEP LAYER DRYNESS, CHARACTERIZED BY PWS
OF A QUARTER TO THIRD INCH THIS MORNING TO NEAR HALF AN INCH
TONIGHT, WILL RESULT OVER CNTL NC.
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHING ACROSS S-CNTL VA WILL
MOVE SOUTH AND ACROSS CNTL NC THIS MORNING. A ~1026 MB
PACIFIC HIGH NOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL FOLLOW AND BUILD ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY TODAY AND ACROSS AND QUICKLY OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC,
WHILE CONTINUING TO EXTEND WWD INTO NC, TONIGHT.
POST-FRONTAL COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION TODAY, INCLUDING A
SHORT PERIOD OF NNELY GUSTINESS WITH DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH
MIDDAY, WILL YIELD COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WED BUT STILL
SEASONABLE ONES IN THE 60S, ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 20S-30S F AND RELATED AFTERNOON RH IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30%.
TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND MOSTLY CALM, WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF THE BRIEFLY ESTABLISHED DRY AIRMASS AND LOW TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE LWR-MID 30S, EXCEPT UPR 30S TO AROUND 40 F OVER
THE URBAN TRIAD AND TRIANGLE AND ALSO THE SRN SANDHILLS AND SRN
COASTAL PLAIN. THOSE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE BEST REFLECTED BY MOS
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY THAT OF THE ECMWF AND NAM
(MET)), AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE IN RADIATIONAL COOLING REGIMES.
AREAS OF FROST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN
PIEDMONT AND NRN AND CNTL COASTAL PLAIN, WHERE A FROST ADVISORY
WILL PROBABLY BE WARRANTED.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 115 PM THURSDAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC FRIDAY, USHERING IN A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY, INCREASING DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60
DEGREES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING AND VARY IN
COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CAMS ARE SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
BUT KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP
BRING WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 65-
70 ACROSS THE NORTH AND 70-74 ACROSS THE SOUTH.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA, THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THIS
WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF LIGHT, MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW
AVERAGE, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT TO
MODERATE OUT OF THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...
* A FEW COLD FRONTS WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN GENERALLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE.
* MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DROPS TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON MONDAY NIGHT, WITH A HARD
FREEZE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
SATURDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL PASS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE INTO THE LOW-TO-MID
70S. THIS COULD ALSO FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOOKS TO BE IN THE 70S WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THIS MEANS THAT A
FEW EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING
MEAN TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.3 INCHES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
AFTER THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL DROP TO ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON SO FAR, WITH LOWS BELOW FREEZING EXPECTED EVERYWHERE IN THE
REGION. A HARD FREEZE ALSO LOOKS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. HIGHS ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS LOOK TO
ONLY REACH THE MID 40S TO THE LOW 50S. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND RETURNS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH TONIGHT. N/NE WINDS CURRENTLY AROUND 5-10 KTS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON, TURNING MOSTLY CALM TONIGHT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE NC/VA COAST TOMORROW
MORNING, THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN S/SE, BRINGING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. ASSOCIATED LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD
SPREAD IN SOME STRATOCUMULUS AT 2-5 KFT FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST, SO
ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT RWI WHERE CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING BEFORE 18Z IS LOWEST.
OUTLOOK: ADDITIONAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT (MAINLY NW).
THERE WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS SUNDAY
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF RAIN AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AHEAD
OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, STRONG AND GUSTY SW SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT AHEAD OF
THAT COLD FRONT ON SUN, FOLLOWED BY SIMILARLY STRONG AND GUSTY W/NW
ONES SUN NIGHT AND MON, PERHAPS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...LH
AVIATION...DANCO/MWS
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