981
FXUS62 KRAH 062018
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
318 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WITH
FOLLOWING UNSEASONABLY MILD, SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...
* A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM TONIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT, NORTHERN SANDHILLS, AND NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING ARE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THIS IS RESULTING IN A SUNNY AND
DRY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. POST-FRONTAL GUSTINESS FROM EARLIER
TODAY HAS DIMINISHED AS THE COLD FRONT IS NOW ANALYZED WELL TO
OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL GA. HAD TO INCREASE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS AMPLE SUNSHINE IS COUNTERACTING THE
COOL NORTHERLY FLOW, HELPING HIGHS STAY AT OR WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL, RANGING FROM LOWER-60S NEAR THE VA BORDER TO
AROUND 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH. VERY DRY AIR HAS BEEN ADVECTED INTO
THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S, AND THIS
DRYNESS IS EVIDENT THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH PW VALUES ONLY IN
THE 0.2-0.5" RANGE.
WINDS WILL TURN CALM TONIGHT AS THE HIGH DRIFTS ESE TO THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH, BUT
OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP TONIGHT'S LOWS DROP INTO THE
MID-TO-UPPER-30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, PERHAPS 40 IN THE FAR
SOUTH. THE FORECAST HEAVILY RELIES ON COOLER STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THUS
ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC OUTSIDE OF THE
FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FROST IS ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS, WITH THE URBAN TRIAD AND
TRIANGLE LIKELY TO STAY IN THE UPPER-30S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 115 PM THURSDAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC FRIDAY, USHERING IN A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY, INCREASING DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60
DEGREES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING AND VARY IN
COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CAMS ARE SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
BUT KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP
BRING WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 65-
70 ACROSS THE NORTH AND 70-74 ACROSS THE SOUTH.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA, THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THIS
WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF LIGHT, MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW
AVERAGE, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT TO
MODERATE OUT OF THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...
* A FEW COLD FRONTS WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN GENERALLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE.
* MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DROPS TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON MONDAY NIGHT, WITH A HARD
FREEZE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
SATURDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL PASS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE INTO THE LOW-TO-MID
70S. THIS COULD ALSO FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOOKS TO BE IN THE 70S WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THIS MEANS THAT A
FEW EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING
MEAN TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.3 INCHES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
AFTER THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL DROP TO ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON SO FAR, WITH LOWS BELOW FREEZING EXPECTED EVERYWHERE IN THE
REGION. A HARD FREEZE ALSO LOOKS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. HIGHS ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS LOOK TO
ONLY REACH THE MID 40S TO THE LOW 50S. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND RETURNS.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH TONIGHT. N/NE WINDS CURRENTLY AROUND 5-10 KTS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON, TURNING MOSTLY CALM TONIGHT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE NC/VA COAST TOMORROW
MORNING, THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN S/SE, BRINGING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. ASSOCIATED LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD
SPREAD IN SOME STRATOCUMULUS AT 2-5 KFT FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST, SO
ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT RWI WHERE CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING BEFORE 18Z IS LOWEST.
OUTLOOK: ADDITIONAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT (MAINLY NW).
THERE WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS SUNDAY
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF RAIN AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AHEAD
OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, STRONG AND GUSTY SW SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT AHEAD OF
THAT COLD FRONT ON SUN, FOLLOWED BY SIMILARLY STRONG AND GUSTY W/NW
ONES SUN NIGHT AND MON, PERHAPS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-075>078.
SYNOPSIS...MWS/CA
NEAR TERM...DANCO
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...HELOCK
AVIATION...MWS/DANCO
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