899
FXUS62 KRAH 070623
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
122 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING
AND ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO RETREAT NORTHWARD AND ACROSS NC LATER
TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY
AND STALL THERE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MUCH STRONGER, ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...
* A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM TONIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT, NORTHERN SANDHILLS, AND NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING ARE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THIS IS RESULTING IN A SUNNY AND
DRY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. POST-FRONTAL GUSTINESS FROM EARLIER
TODAY HAS DIMINISHED AS THE COLD FRONT IS NOW ANALYZED WELL TO
OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL GA. HAD TO INCREASE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS AMPLE SUNSHINE IS COUNTERACTING THE
COOL NORTHERLY FLOW, HELPING HIGHS STAY AT OR WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL, RANGING FROM LOWER-60S NEAR THE VA BORDER TO
AROUND 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH. VERY DRY AIR HAS BEEN ADVECTED INTO
THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S, AND THIS
DRYNESS IS EVIDENT THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH PW VALUES ONLY IN
THE 0.2-0.5" RANGE.
WINDS WILL TURN CALM TONIGHT AS THE HIGH DRIFTS ESE TO THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH, BUT
OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP TONIGHT'S LOWS DROP INTO THE
MID-TO-UPPER-30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, PERHAPS 40 IN THE FAR
SOUTH. THE FORECAST HEAVILY RELIES ON COOLER STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THUS
ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC OUTSIDE OF THE
FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FROST IS ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS, WITH THE URBAN TRIAD AND
TRIANGLE LIKELY TO STAY IN THE UPPER-30S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 115 PM THURSDAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC FRIDAY, USHERING IN A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY, INCREASING DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60
DEGREES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING AND VARY IN
COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CAMS ARE SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
BUT KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP
BRING WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 65-
70 ACROSS THE NORTH AND 70-74 ACROSS THE SOUTH.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA, THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THIS
WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF LIGHT, MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW
AVERAGE, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT TO
MODERATE OUT OF THE SOUTH.
SATURDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL PASS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE INTO THE LOW-TO-MID
70S. THIS COULD ALSO FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOOKS TO BE IN THE 70S WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THIS MEANS THAT A
FEW EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING
MEAN TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.3 INCHES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1100 PM THURSDAY...
* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND BEHIND A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO START THE NEXT WEEK. A HARD FREEZE MONDAY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
* DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT,
PROPELLED BY A STRONG HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA BY MID WEEK, WITH WSW LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK.
LOW TEMPERATURE MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE BIG STORY DURING THIS
PERIOD, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER
20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER IS GENERALLY EXPECTED WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS TO START THE WEEK, WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID/LATE
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40 TO GENERALLY
LOWER 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE WARNING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S
BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND, WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 40 FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 120 AM FRIDAY...
AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS BASED AROUND 4000-4500 FT NOW OVER BOTH THE
WRN CAROLINAS AND SERN NC ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND
LOWER ACROSS CNTL NC THIS MORNING, AS A WARM FRONT AND RELATED LIFT
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT RETREAT NWD ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE AN
ASSOCIATED MVFR CEILING MAY RESULT THROUGHOUT CNTL NC THROUGH MIDDAY-
EARLY AFTERNOON, THAT PROBABILITY WILL BE GREATEST AT INT AND GSO,
WHERE SEVERAL HOURS OF PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST. PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN OR A LIGHT SHOWER MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT,
PARTICULARLY NEAR AND EAST OF FAY AND RWI THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT AS
IT CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVES ACROSS CNTL NC TONIGHT, SUCH
THAT BAND OF MIXED CHARACTER RAIN (IE. WEAKENING SHOWERS/CONVECTION
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURROUNDING BAND OF MID-LEVEL CEILINGS AND
STRATIFORM RAIN) WILL OVERSPREAD CNTL NC OVERNIGHT. A FLEETING
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AND/OR CEILING MAY BRIEFLY RESULT. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR, AS A 35-40 KT, SWLY LOW-
LEVEL JET TRAVERSES THE REGION ATOP A RELATIVELY STABLE NEAR SURFACE
LAYER AND INVERSION.
THERE WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNING, FOLLOWED BY
YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AHEAD OF AND
ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY,
STRONG AND GUSTY SWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT AHEAD OF THAT COLD
FRONT ON SUN, FOLLOWED BY SIMILARLY STRONG AND GUSTY NWLY ONES
BEHIND IT SUN NIGHT AND MON.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-075>078.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...DANCO
SHORT TERM...CA/HELOCK
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...MWS
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