014
FXUS62 KRAH 070652
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
150 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING
AND ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO RETREAT NORTHWARD AND ACROSS NC LATER
TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY
AND STALL THERE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MUCH STRONGER, ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...
* A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM TONIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT, NORTHERN SANDHILLS, AND NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING ARE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THIS IS RESULTING IN A SUNNY AND
DRY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. POST-FRONTAL GUSTINESS FROM EARLIER
TODAY HAS DIMINISHED AS THE COLD FRONT IS NOW ANALYZED WELL TO
OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL GA. HAD TO INCREASE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS AMPLE SUNSHINE IS COUNTERACTING THE
COOL NORTHERLY FLOW, HELPING HIGHS STAY AT OR WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL, RANGING FROM LOWER-60S NEAR THE VA BORDER TO
AROUND 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH. VERY DRY AIR HAS BEEN ADVECTED INTO
THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S, AND THIS
DRYNESS IS EVIDENT THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH PW VALUES ONLY IN
THE 0.2-0.5" RANGE.
WINDS WILL TURN CALM TONIGHT AS THE HIGH DRIFTS ESE TO THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH, BUT
OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP TONIGHT'S LOWS DROP INTO THE
MID-TO-UPPER-30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, PERHAPS 40 IN THE FAR
SOUTH. THE FORECAST HEAVILY RELIES ON COOLER STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THUS
ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC OUTSIDE OF THE
FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FROST IS ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS, WITH THE URBAN TRIAD AND
TRIANGLE LIKELY TO STAY IN THE UPPER-30S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CUTTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, A LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT ANY RAIN FROM FALLING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY,
THEN TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT -
THE FIRST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND THE SECOND SUNDAY
EVENING. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL,
INTO THE 70S IN NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
50S SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ON
SUNDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE HIGHS ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO. HOWEVER, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN A DRAMATIC TRANSITION FOR
TEMPERATURES. AS THE WIND TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST, COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION, WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1100 PM THURSDAY...
* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND BEHIND A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO START THE NEXT WEEK. A HARD FREEZE MONDAY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
* DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT,
PROPELLED BY A STRONG HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA BY MID WEEK, WITH WSW LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK.
LOW TEMPERATURE MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE BIG STORY DURING THIS
PERIOD, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER
20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER IS GENERALLY EXPECTED WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS TO START THE WEEK, WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID/LATE
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40 TO GENERALLY
LOWER 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE WARNING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S
BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND, WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 40 FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 120 AM FRIDAY...
AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS BASED AROUND 4000-4500 FT NOW OVER BOTH THE
WRN CAROLINAS AND SERN NC ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND
LOWER ACROSS CNTL NC THIS MORNING, AS A WARM FRONT AND RELATED LIFT
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT RETREAT NWD ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE AN
ASSOCIATED MVFR CEILING MAY RESULT THROUGHOUT CNTL NC THROUGH MIDDAY-
EARLY AFTERNOON, THAT PROBABILITY WILL BE GREATEST AT INT AND GSO,
WHERE SEVERAL HOURS OF PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST. PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN OR A LIGHT SHOWER MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT,
PARTICULARLY NEAR AND EAST OF FAY AND RWI THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT AS
IT CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVES ACROSS CNTL NC TONIGHT, SUCH
THAT BAND OF MIXED CHARACTER RAIN (IE. WEAKENING SHOWERS/CONVECTION
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURROUNDING BAND OF MID-LEVEL CEILINGS AND
STRATIFORM RAIN) WILL OVERSPREAD CNTL NC OVERNIGHT. A FLEETING
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AND/OR CEILING MAY BRIEFLY RESULT. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR, AS A 35-40 KT, SWLY LOW-
LEVEL JET TRAVERSES THE REGION ATOP A RELATIVELY STABLE NEAR SURFACE
LAYER AND INVERSION.
THERE WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNING, FOLLOWED BY
YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AHEAD OF AND
ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY,
STRONG AND GUSTY SWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT AHEAD OF THAT COLD
FRONT ON SUN, FOLLOWED BY SIMILARLY STRONG AND GUSTY NWLY ONES
BEHIND IT SUN NIGHT AND MON.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-075>078.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...DANCO
SHORT TERM...GREEN
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...MWS
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