454
FXUS62 KRAH 071810
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
110 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT AWAY FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND
ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO RETREAT NORTHWARD AND ACROSS NC LATER TODAY.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY AND
STALL THERE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MUCH STRONGER, ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...
* CHILLY, AND IN SOME AREAS FROSTY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING, WILL
MODERATE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT.
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS EVIDENT IN GOES-E WV DATA OVER
THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD AND COME INTO
PHASE AS THEY PIVOT ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS BY 00-06Z SAT,
THEN LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE CNTL APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE NRN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC THROUGH 12Z SAT. THEY WILL BE PRECEDED BY A SLIGHTLY OUT-OF-
PHASE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION NOW OVER KS, FORECAST TO DIG SLIGHTLY
INTO THE TN VALLEY BY 00Z SAT, THEN LIFT ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE SRN
MIDDLE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT-SAT MORNING, IN A WEAKENING STATE AMID
CONFLUENT FLOW. GRADUALLY FALLING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD OVER CNTL NC ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MAXIMIZED
BETWEEN 30-50 METERS TONIGHT, WHEN A BAND OF 150-175% OF NORMAL PWS
WILL ALSO TRAVERSE THE REGION.
AT THE SURFACE, ~1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED ALONG THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. IN RETURN FLOW ON
ITS WRN PERIPHERY, A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NWD ACROSS NC TODAY,
WITH A RELATED MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40 F THIS MORNING TO 50S F BY THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT, PROBABLY DIABATICALLY-STRENGTHENED BY OUTFLOW
FROM WEAKENING CONVECTION, WILL SETTLE INTO CNTL NC BY EARLY SAT
MORNING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
STRATOCUMULUS AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS (ON AVERAGE), TO BRIEFLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY ONES ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW PIEDMONT EARLY TODAY AND
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY, LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE BOTH FRONTAL LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ARE
FORECAST TO MAXIMIZE IN ERN NC THIS AFTERNOON, INCLUDING NEAR THE
RAH COASTAL PLAIN. IT WILL OTHERWISE BE MILD, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 60S NW TO MID 70S SE.
ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE OVER
CNTL NC TONIGHT, INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. AS A CONSEQUENCE,
UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT AS IT
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVES ACROSS CNTL NC IN THE FORM OF
MIXED CHARACTER RAIN (IE. WEAKENING SHOWERS/CONVECTION EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURROUNDING BAND OF MID-LEVEL CEILINGS AND REMNANT
STRATIFORM RAIN) OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH, RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT, HIGHEST AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE OVER THE SRN AND
WRN PIEDMONT, TAPERING TO TRACE AMOUNTS AS IT PROBABLY DISSIPATES
ENTIRELY INVOF THE COASTAL PLAIN BY SAT MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD, 10-15 F ABOVE AVERAGE, AND IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 110 PM FRIDAY...
OVERVIEW: ALOFT, THE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL GRADUALLY DROP SWD
ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MEANWHILE, A
S/W WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SAT. AS ANOTHER S/W SWINGING EWD
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY HELPS AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST
SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN, A SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NEWD ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST US/CAROLINA COAST. BY MONDAY MORNING, THE LOW SHOULD
BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY, WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
SWD TO THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST SAT WILL SLOW IN ITS PROGRESSION AS THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY AND MORE W-E ORIENTED DURING THE DAY
SAT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NEWD ALONG THE FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL HELP THE FRONT LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT AS
ANOTHER, STRONGER LOW TRACKS EWD FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY. THE LOWS MAY MERGE OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST US
ON SUN, THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
FROM W-E SUN AFT/EVE. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUN NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION: THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL COLD FRONT
EARLY SAT DECREASES AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA, SO WHILE THERE MAY BE
A STRAY SHOWER EARLY, LARGELY EXPECT SAT TO BE DRY. AS THE WARM
FRONT AND SURFACE LOW LIFT ACROSS THE AREA SAT EVE/NIGHT, CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE A BIT, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST
(IN THE WARM SECTOR). THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY (NAM) SAT EVE/NIGHT
AS THE LOW LIFTS THROUGH, SO HAVE KEPT IN MENTION FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER, MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THE LLJ ALSO STRENGTHENS AS IT
PROGRESSES ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE FROPA. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WRT CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUN AFT/EVE. THE GFS
CONTINUES BE THE MOST BULLISH WITH THE INSTABILITY, SHOWING UP TO
1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE MAXIMIZED OVER ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR SUN AFT/EVE, AND BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS IN THAT AREA.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FROM THE SPC FOR THAT TIME AND LOCATION.
TEMPERATURES: HEADLINE UP FRONT, A DRASTIC DROP IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT. ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR SAT, SAT NIGHT, AND SUN. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S SAT SHOULD
INCREASE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES FOR SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT, LOW/MID 50S
TO LOW 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT SUN EVE/NIGHT, WITH MID/UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE BY DAYBREAK
MON. WHILE THOSE LOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY NOV, THEY ARE ABOUT
15 DEGREES LOWER THAN SAT NIGHT LOWS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1100 PM THURSDAY...
* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND BEHIND A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO START THE NEXT WEEK. A HARD FREEZE MONDAY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
* DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT,
PROPELLED BY A STRONG HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA BY MID WEEK, WITH WSW LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK.
LOW TEMPERATURE MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE BIG STORY DURING THIS
PERIOD, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER
20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER IS GENERALLY EXPECTED WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS TO START THE WEEK, WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID/LATE
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40 TO GENERALLY
LOWER 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE WARNING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S
BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND, WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 40 FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 735 AM FRIDAY...
AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS BASED AROUND 4000-4500 FT NOW OVER BOTH THE
WRN CAROLINAS AND SERN NC ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND
LOWER ACROSS CNTL NC TODAY, AS A WARM FRONT AND RELATED LIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT RETREAT NWD ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE ASSOCIATED LOW
VFR CEILINGS, OR AT LEAST SCATTERED VFR BASES, WILL BECOME LIKELY
THROUGHOUT CNTL NC FOR SEVERAL HOURS TODAY, THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR
ONES WILL BE GREATEST AT INT AND GSO. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR A LIGHT
SHOWER MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT, PARTICULARLY NEAR AND EAST
OF FAY AND RWI THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO PROBABLY
FOR TONIGHT, UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME AND EWD
EXTENT AS IT CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVES ACROSS CNTL NC IN
THE FORM OF MIXED CHARACTER RAIN (IE. WEAKENING SHOWERS/CONVECTION
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURROUNDING BAND OF MID-LEVEL CEILINGS AND REMNANT
STRATIFORM RAIN). ASSOCIATED, BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND/OR
CEILINGS MAY RESULT, WITH THE RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OVER THE
PIEDMONT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR, AS A
35-45 KT, SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET TRAVERSES THE REGION ATOP A RELATIVELY
STABLE NEAR SURFACE LAYER AND INVERSION.
OUTLOOK: THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND PERHAPS
SCATTERED, ELEVATED CONVECTION (SHOWERS WITH LIMITED PROBABILITY OF
THUNDER) LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNING, FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER CHANCE
OF FRONTAL CONVECTION AND POST-FRONTAL RAIN --AND RELATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS-- WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUN AND
SUN NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG AND GUSTY SWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
RESULT AHEAD OF THAT COLD FRONT ON SUN, FOLLOWED BY SIMILARLY STRONG
AND GUSTY NWLY ONES BEHIND IT SUN NIGHT AND MON.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...MWS
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