735
FXUS62 KRAH 080637
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
137 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NC THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN
RETREAT NORTH INTO VA AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY. A STRONGER, POLAR
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A VIGOROUS
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 138 PM FRIDAY...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED A WAVY WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN WEST TOWARDS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SLY WAA REGIME, STRATOCU HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS MOST
OF CENTRAL NC WHILE LIGHT RAIN HAS REMAINED TO OUR EAST NEAR CAPE
LOOKOUT. EXPECT THE STRATOCU TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
FURTHER UPSTREAM, A LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WAS DRAPED ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL TN NORTHWEST THROUGH WESTERN PA. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL WEAKEN EARLY TONIGHT AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. WHILE MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING WILL INCREASE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC TONIGHT, INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. AS SUCH, EXPECT ANY
LIGHT RAIN THAT DOES MAKE IT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE OUT
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
STILL COULD SEE A FEW HUNDREDS TO MAYBE A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN
IN THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT, WITH LESS AMOUNTS FURTHER EAST.
WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A
DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED GUST OF 20 TO 30 MPH OR SO WITH THE DECAYING
RAIN. OTHERWISE, MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
DECAYING CONVECTION WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 110 PM FRIDAY...
OVERVIEW: ALOFT, THE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL GRADUALLY DROP SWD
ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MEANWHILE, A
S/W WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SAT. AS ANOTHER S/W SWINGING EWD
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY HELPS AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST
SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN, A SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NEWD ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST US/CAROLINA COAST. BY MONDAY MORNING, THE LOW SHOULD
BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY, WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
SWD TO THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST SAT WILL SLOW IN ITS PROGRESSION AS THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY AND MORE W-E ORIENTED DURING THE DAY
SAT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NEWD ALONG THE FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL HELP THE FRONT LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT AS
ANOTHER, STRONGER LOW TRACKS EWD FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY. THE LOWS MAY MERGE OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST US
ON SUN, THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
FROM W-E SUN AFT/EVE. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUN NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION: THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL COLD FRONT
EARLY SAT DECREASES AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA, SO WHILE THERE MAY BE
A STRAY SHOWER EARLY, LARGELY EXPECT SAT TO BE DRY. AS THE WARM
FRONT AND SURFACE LOW LIFT ACROSS THE AREA SAT EVE/NIGHT, CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE A BIT, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST
(IN THE WARM SECTOR). THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY (NAM) SAT EVE/NIGHT
AS THE LOW LIFTS THROUGH, SO HAVE KEPT IN MENTION FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER, MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THE LLJ ALSO STRENGTHENS AS IT
PROGRESSES ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE FROPA. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WRT CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUN AFT/EVE. THE GFS
CONTINUES BE THE MOST BULLISH WITH THE INSTABILITY, SHOWING UP TO
1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE MAXIMIZED OVER ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR SUN AFT/EVE, AND BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS IN THAT AREA.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FROM THE SPC FOR THAT TIME AND LOCATION.
TEMPERATURES: HEADLINE UP FRONT, A DRASTIC DROP IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT. ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR SAT, SAT NIGHT, AND SUN. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S SAT SHOULD
INCREASE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES FOR SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT, LOW/MID 50S
TO LOW 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT SUN EVE/NIGHT, WITH MID/UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE BY DAYBREAK
MON. WHILE THOSE LOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY NOV, THEY ARE ABOUT
15 DEGREES LOWER THAN SAT NIGHT LOWS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, WITH VERY COOL CONDITIONS THAT WARM BACK TO SEASONABLE BY
MID TO LATE WEEK.
IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHT'S ARCTIC FRONT, ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
MID/UPPER TROUGHING WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN US, AND STRONG
CAA WILL BRING IN SHARPLY COLDER AND DRIER AIR ON MONDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM MID-40S TO MID-50S. THIS IS 10-15+ DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND PW VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN A
THIRD OF AN INCH. IT WILL ALSO BE BLUSTERY WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO
15-25 MPH. THE BIG STORY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT'S LOWS,
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID-20S TO AROUND 30, COOLEST IN
THE OUTLYING AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT AND WARMEST IN URBAN PARTS OF THE
TRIANGLE, EASTERN SANDHILLS, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. WAS
HESITANT TO DROP FORECAST LOWS MUCH BELOW NBM GIVEN THE CENTER OF
THE SURFACE HIGH BEING DISPLACED SO FAR TO OUR SW ACROSS THE GULF
COAST, AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THIS
HIGH AND A LOW OVER SE CANADA. STILL, GIVEN 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 1275-1285 M RANGE, A FREEZE IS LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF CENTRAL NC.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER-40S TO LOWER-50S, ALONG WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. THE
AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO EXTEND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WE GET SW
LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW. FORECAST LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE LOWER-
TO-MID-30S, WHILE FORECAST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE BACK CLOSE TO
NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE LOWER-60S, LOWS IN THE UPPER-30S TO LOWER-40S).
A WEAKER DRY COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY, BUT IT WON'T RESULT IN MUCH CHANGE IN AIR MASS LATE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MID TO LATE WEEK AS WE WARM BACK UP AND REMAIN
DRY AND BREEZY, BUT THIS IS TOO FAR OUT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE SO WILL
JUST CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 135 AM SATURDAY...
A BAND OF LEADING LINE CONVECTION AND TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT AS PROGRESSES ACROSS
CNTL NC THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY
RESULT, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE LEADING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. IN THE WAKE OF THE DECAYING PRECIPITATION
BAND, SKIES WILL PROBABLY CLEAR AT INT/GSO SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE;
AND THIS CLEARING ATOP UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR NEAR THE SURFACE (EG.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F) WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY
LOW STRATUS AND FOG FOR A COPUPLE OF HOURS AT THOSE TWO SITES.
LASTLY, A 35-45 KT, SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS, AND ATOP A RELATIVELY STABLE NEAR SURFACE LAYER AND
INVERSION, WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK: LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN ATOP A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE OVER NC BY
THIS EVENING, SUCH THAT MVFR-IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOLP OVER CNTL NC
AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS, MOSTLY ELEVATED
CONVECTION TONIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY SWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT
AHEAD OF A POLAR FRONT ON SUN, FOLLOWED BY SIMILARLY STRONG AND
GUSTY NWLY ONES BEHIND IT SUN NIGHT AND MON. A VIGOROUS TROUGH ALOFT
AND ACCMPANYING ARCTIC, SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MON AND MON NIGHT, WITH A RENEWED SURGE OF NWLY
GUSTINESS AND VIRGA.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...LUCHETTI
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...DANCO
AVIATION...MWS
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