649
FXUS62 KRAH 080921
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
421 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NC THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN
RETREAT NORTH INTO VA AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY. A STRONGER, POLAR
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A VIGOROUS
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...
* UNSEASONABLY MILD, WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION TONIGHT
A COUPLE OF CLOSELY-SPACED SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS NOW EVIDENT IN
GOES-E WV DATA OVER THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND OH VALLEY WILL LIFT
NEWD ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS TODAY, THEN
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. BETWEEN THAT TROUGH AND ANOTHER FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MID MS VALLEY, LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL MIGRATE ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC. A SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AND MIGRATE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT, WITHIN A BROADER REGIME OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL WAA.
AT THE SURFACE, A SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SWWD TO THE LWR MS VALLEY WILL SETTLE SEWD AND
ACROSS NC THIS MORNING, WHERE IT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
THROUGH SUN MORNING, OR PERHAPS RETREAT SLIGHTLY NWD AHEAD OF A WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE TONIGHT.
A BAND OF WEAKENING CONVECTION AND TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT AS PROGRESSES ACROSS E-
CNTL NC THIS MORNING, AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
LIFTING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT THAT WILL BE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW
FOR TODAY, IN SUBSIDENT INFLUENCE FROM THE PROGRESSIVE, LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL THEN DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN TONIGHT, AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL JET INTERSECTS THE QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
FRONT OVER CNTL NC, AMID BROADER BUT STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WAA.
ASSOCIATED LIFT, BENEATH MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM,
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS,
ELEVATED CONVECTION TONIGHT, WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
~50 KTS OF WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND MUCAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT TO 750-1000 J/KG OVER THE SANDHILLS AND SRN
COASTAL PLAIN. CAM SOLUTIONS INDICATE ELEVATED SUPERCELLS, WITH A
PRIMARY RISK OF HAIL, MAY RESULT WHERE THAT INSTABILITY MAXIMIZES
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS, AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, AS PWS
INCREASE TO AROUND 150-175% OF NORMAL; AND THERE MAY BE SOME
TENDENCY FOR CELLS TO REGENERATE ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT.
THAT RISK ALSO APPEARS GREATEST OVER THE SANDHILLS PER 00Z HREF LPMM
FIELDS, WHICH INDICATE 2-4" WILL BE POSSIBLE LOCALLY.
IT WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MILD AND IN THE 70S THIS
AFTERNOON AND 50S OVERNIGHT, OR ABOUT 10-20 F ABOVE AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...
* STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, WITH A
DRASTIC CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
* CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MAINLY
ALONG/EAST OF US-1/I-95
A DEEP AND VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND SE US SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH CORE OF THE TROUGH
REACHING PORTIONS OF THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION MONDAY MORNING. TIED TO
THE TROUGH WILL BE THE WELL ADVERTISED ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL
STRETCH FROM THE WESTERN OH TO TN VALLEY REGION SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER OH. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NW PIEDMONT
AND MID TO LATE EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NC.
A WARM FRONT NEAR SOUTHERN VA EARLY SUN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH
INTO MD DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS MAY STILL BE AROUND SUNDAY MORNING OVER
OUR NE SECTIONS, BUT MOST CAM SOLUTIONS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY INTO VA
BY THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE, MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ONE LAST MILD DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LOW
70S NW TO UPPER 70S SE.
THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON RESULTS IN A FAIR BIT OF
DRY AIR OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
WARM FRONT. AS SUCH, THE AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE DECREASES RELATIVE
TO SAT NIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IN
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. HREF MEMBERS SUGGEST A CONDITIONAL
THREAT GIVEN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50+ KTS, BUT
MARGINAL INSTABILITY OF 250 TO 500 J/KG, FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG/EAST
OF US-1/I-95. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IN OUR FAR
EASTERN COASTAL PLAIN, BUT HOW MUCH COVERAGE WE WILL SEE REMAINS
UNCLEAR.
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A DRASTIC CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWS BY MON MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO
LOW/MID 40S SE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...
* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND BEHIND A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO START THE NEXT WEEK. A HARD FREEZE MONDAY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
* DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO CENTRAL NC
BEHIND THE STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, PROPELLED BY A STRONG HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY MID
WEEK, WITH WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW EXPECTED BY
MID WEEK.
LOW TEMPERATURE MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE BIG STORY DURING THIS
PERIOD, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER
20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES ACROSS THE ACROSS CENTRAL NC, LIKELY
RESULTING IN A HARD FREEZE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE, DRY
WEATHER IS GENERALLY EXPECTED WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO START
THE WEEK, WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID/LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40 TO LOWER 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BEFORE WARNING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
TUESDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 40 FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 135 AM SATURDAY...
A BAND OF LEADING LINE CONVECTION AND TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT AS PROGRESSES ACROSS
CNTL NC THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY
RESULT, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE LEADING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. IN THE WAKE OF THE DECAYING PRECIPITATION
BAND, SKIES WILL PROBABLY CLEAR AT INT/GSO SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE;
AND THIS CLEARING ATOP UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR NEAR THE SURFACE (EG.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F) WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY
LOW STRATUS AND FOG FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AT THOSE TWO SITES.
LASTLY, A 35-45 KT, SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS, AND ATOP A RELATIVELY STABLE NEAR SURFACE LAYER AND
INVERSION, WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK: LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN ATOP A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE OVER NC BY
THIS EVENING, SUCH THAT MVFR-IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP OVER CNTL NC
AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS, MOSTLY ELEVATED
CONVECTION TONIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY SWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT
AHEAD OF A POLAR FRONT ON SUN, FOLLOWED BY SIMILARLY STRONG AND
GUSTY NWLY ONES BEHIND IT SUN NIGHT AND MON. A VIGOROUS TROUGH ALOFT
AND ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC, SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MON AND MON NIGHT, WITH A RENEWED SURGE OF NWLY
GUSTINESS AND VIRGA.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...MWS
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