898
FXUS62 KRAH 081800
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
100 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NC THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN
RETREAT NORTH INTO VA AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY. A STRONGER, POLAR
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A VIGOROUS
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...
* UNSEASONABLY MILD, WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION TONIGHT
A COUPLE OF CLOSELY-SPACED SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS NOW EVIDENT IN
GOES-E WV DATA OVER THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND OH VALLEY WILL LIFT
NEWD ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS TODAY, THEN
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. BETWEEN THAT TROUGH AND ANOTHER FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MID MS VALLEY, LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL MIGRATE ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC. A SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AND MIGRATE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT, WITHIN A BROADER REGIME OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL WAA.
AT THE SURFACE, A SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SWWD TO THE LWR MS VALLEY WILL SETTLE SEWD AND
ACROSS NC THIS MORNING, WHERE IT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
THROUGH SUN MORNING, OR PERHAPS RETREAT SLIGHTLY NWD AHEAD OF A WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE TONIGHT.
A BAND OF WEAKENING CONVECTION AND TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT AS PROGRESSES ACROSS E-
CNTL NC THIS MORNING, AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
LIFTING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT THAT WILL BE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW
FOR TODAY, IN SUBSIDENT INFLUENCE FROM THE PROGRESSIVE, LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL THEN DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN TONIGHT, AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL JET INTERSECTS THE QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
FRONT OVER CNTL NC, AMID BROADER BUT STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WAA.
ASSOCIATED LIFT, BENEATH MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM,
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS,
ELEVATED CONVECTION TONIGHT, WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
~50 KTS OF WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND MUCAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT TO 750-1000 J/KG OVER THE SANDHILLS AND SRN
COASTAL PLAIN. CAM SOLUTIONS INDICATE ELEVATED SUPERCELLS, WITH A
PRIMARY RISK OF HAIL, MAY RESULT WHERE THAT INSTABILITY MAXIMIZES
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS, AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, AS PWS
INCREASE TO AROUND 150-175% OF NORMAL; AND THERE MAY BE SOME
TENDENCY FOR CELLS TO REGENERATE ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT.
THAT RISK ALSO APPEARS GREATEST OVER THE SANDHILLS PER 00Z HREF LPMM
FIELDS, WHICH INDICATE 2-4" WILL BE POSSIBLE LOCALLY.
IT WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MILD AND IN THE 70S THIS
AFTERNOON AND 50S OVERNIGHT, OR ABOUT 10-20 F ABOVE AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...
* CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MAINLY
ALONG/EAST OF US-1/I-95
* STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT, WITH A DRASTIC
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
OVERVIEW: ALOFT, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SWINGING AROUND A PARENT LOW
NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL QUICKLY ACT TO AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE
LEADING S/W WILL LIFT NEWD FROM THE OH VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT S/W, TRACKING SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST. THE THIRD, STRONGEST S/W WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WRN
GREAT LAKES ON SUN, THEN CLOSING OFF AS IT CONTINUES SSEWD ACROSS
THE OH/TN VALLEY SUN EVE/NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, THE LOW LIFTING
NNEWD OUT OF THE AREA SUN MORNING WILL MERGE WITH THE LOW TRACKING
EWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON SUN. AS THIS LOW THEN CONTINUES
GENERALLY EWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN AFT/EVE, THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA SUN EVE, AND SHIFT OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT.
COLD, DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUN NIGHT, AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES SWD OVER THE PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION: THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE VA
BORDER EARLY SUN, BUT EXPECT A LULL IN PRECIPITATION SUN MORN AND
EARLY AFT. WHILE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING
SUN EVE/EARLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ERN PIEDMONT, SANDHILLS, AND
COASTAL PLAIN, THE LATER TIMING (AFTER SUNSET) COULD REDUCE THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS TO WORK WITH, WITH THE BEST
FORCING CHASING THE BEST INSTABILITY. WHILE THE HRRR AND NAM BOTH
SHOW MLCAPE MAXING OUT AROUND 800-1000 J/KG DURING THE AFT, THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED (PWATS OF 1.0-1.2 INCHES).
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS, NO SURPRISE THE BULK SHEAR IS
HIGH, 50-70 KTS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
OVERLAP WITH THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT TAPPING INTO SOME OF THE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GET A STRONGER STORM TO
POP, BUT THE THREAT REMAINS CONDITIONAL. THE MARGINAL RISK FROM THE
SPC REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT AN AREA OF RAIN TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS H85 TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AND THE
MID LEVELS SATURATE, WITH WARM MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING CAA AT THE
SURFACE. RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MON.
TEMPERATURES: HIGHS SUN SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SUN, LOW 70S
NORTH TO MID/UPPER 70S SE. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SUN EVE/NIGHT, WITH MID/UPPER 30S NW TO MID
40S SE BY DAYBREAK MON, NEAR NORMAL, BUT SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS COUPLE NIGHTS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...
* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND BEHIND A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO START THE NEXT WEEK. A HARD FREEZE MONDAY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
* DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO CENTRAL NC
BEHIND THE STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, PROPELLED BY A STRONG HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY MID
WEEK, WITH WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW EXPECTED BY
MID WEEK.
LOW TEMPERATURE MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE BIG STORY DURING THIS
PERIOD, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER
20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES ACROSS THE ACROSS CENTRAL NC, LIKELY
RESULTING IN A HARD FREEZE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE, DRY
WEATHER IS GENERALLY EXPECTED WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO START
THE WEEK, WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID/LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40 TO LOWER 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BEFORE WARNING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
TUESDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 40 FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1246 PM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LATER TODAY,
SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERATED BY INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
PROPAGATE FROM EASTERN GA/WESTERN SC NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WILL SOCK
CEILINGS BACK DOWN TO LIFR/IFR LATE THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY, GUSTY
WINDS, AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER STORM
WITH BEST CHANCES AT KRDU/KFAY/KRWI BETWEEN ~23 AND 06Z TONIGHT. ANY
LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT TO OUR NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY, DENSE FOG MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH BEST
CHANCES OVER THE PIEDMONT TAF SITES. ANY LINGERING FOG/SUB-VFR
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BY 15Z (PERHAPS A A BIT LATER AT KRDU/KRWI).
SLY GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT.
OUTLOOK: SIMILARLY STRONG AND GUSTY NWLY SFC WINDS FUNNEL IN BEHIND
THE POLAR FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. A VIGOROUS TROUGH ALOFT
AND ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC, SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MON AND MON NIGHT, WITH A RENEWED SURGE OF EVEN STRONGER
NWLY GUSTINESS AND VIRGA.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...LUCHETTI/MWS
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