104
FXUS62 KRAH 081850
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
150 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NC THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN
RETREAT NORTH INTO VA AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY. A STRONGER, POLAR
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A VIGOROUS
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 149 PM SATURDAY...
* ELEVATED CONVECTION TONIGHT WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS/COASTAL
PLAIN.
* DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN
LATER TONIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS UPSTREAM CU DEVELOPMENT OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL GA AND PARTS OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERN SC. LINGERING
FOG/STRATUS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL SC PIEDMONT HAS FINALLY DISPERSED
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CU LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THIS VICINITY SHORTLY
AS LOW-LEVEL CIN CONTINUES TO ERODE. AT THE SFC, THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED WESTWARD FROM OUR NORTHERN/CENTRAL
COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN INCREASING WAA REGIME, LARGELY ELEVATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS NORTHEASTERN GA/WESTERN SC THIS
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTH INTO CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECASTED HODOGRAPHS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
ELONGATED PROFILES, WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN
LOCATIONS WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE HIGHEST.
WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AREN'T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE (6.5 C/KM), THE
12Z HREF CONTINUES TO DOUBLE DOWN ON A DECENT CLUSTERING OF MID-
LEVEL HELICITY SWATHS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE PREVIOUS 00Z RUN WAS MORE BULLISH ON POTENTIALLY ANTI-CYCLONIC
ROTATION, BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS IN THIS VICINITY
WITHIN A MOSTLY ELEVATED UNSTABLE REGIME, THE MAIN POTENTIAL HAZARD
CONTINUES TO BE LARGE HAIL TONIGHT (ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE TOO).
SPC DECIDED TO INTRODUCE A 2% TORNADO CONTOUR ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WITH THIS MORNING'S DAY 1
UPDATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER DO SHOW PERHAPS A
VERY BRIEF WINDOW WHERE ENOUGH SFC INSTABILITY MAY COINCIDE WITH
DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS TO PERHAPS PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. HOWEVER, THE WAA REALLY DOESN'T AMPLIFY UNTIL
CLOSER TO SUNDOWN WHEN SFC STABILITY QUICKLY TAKES OVER. AS SUCH,
THINK THAT THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY BE A BIT FURTHER
SOUTHWEST INTO SC. HOWEVER, CAN'T FULLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IN THE NC/SC BORDER VICINITY (SOUTHERN ANSON, RICHMOND, SCOTLAND,
HOKE). BEYOND 23/00Z, THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD
QUICKLY DEVELOP AND TRANSITION THE STORM MODE TO ELEVATED ROTATION
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HAIL/WIND THREAT.
BEYOND SEVERE WEATHER, THE 12Z HREF LPMM FIELD CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POTENTIAL HIGHER TOTALS (2 TO 4
INCHES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS WHERE CELLS MAY TRAIN
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, THERE IS A SIGNAL
FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT, PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...
* CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MAINLY
ALONG/EAST OF US-1/I-95
* STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT, WITH A DRASTIC
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
OVERVIEW: ALOFT, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SWINGING AROUND A PARENT LOW
NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL QUICKLY ACT TO AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE
LEADING S/W WILL LIFT NEWD FROM THE OH VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT S/W, TRACKING SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST. THE THIRD, STRONGEST S/W WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WRN
GREAT LAKES ON SUN, THEN CLOSING OFF AS IT CONTINUES SSEWD ACROSS
THE OH/TN VALLEY SUN EVE/NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, THE LOW LIFTING
NNEWD OUT OF THE AREA SUN MORNING WILL MERGE WITH THE LOW TRACKING
EWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON SUN. AS THIS LOW THEN CONTINUES
GENERALLY EWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN AFT/EVE, THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA SUN EVE, AND SHIFT OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT.
COLD, DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUN NIGHT, AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES SWD OVER THE PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION: THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE VA
BORDER EARLY SUN, BUT EXPECT A LULL IN PRECIPITATION SUN MORN AND
EARLY AFT. WHILE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING
SUN EVE/EARLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ERN PIEDMONT, SANDHILLS, AND
COASTAL PLAIN, THE LATER TIMING (AFTER SUNSET) COULD REDUCE THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS TO WORK WITH, WITH THE BEST
FORCING CHASING THE BEST INSTABILITY. WHILE THE HRRR AND NAM BOTH
SHOW MLCAPE MAXING OUT AROUND 800-1000 J/KG DURING THE AFT, THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED (PWATS OF 1.0-1.2 INCHES).
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS, NO SURPRISE THE BULK SHEAR IS
HIGH, 50-70 KTS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
OVERLAP WITH THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT TAPPING INTO SOME OF THE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GET A STRONGER STORM TO
POP, BUT THE THREAT REMAINS CONDITIONAL. THE MARGINAL RISK FROM THE
SPC REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT AN AREA OF RAIN TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS H85 TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AND THE
MID LEVELS SATURATE, WITH WARM MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING CAA AT THE
SURFACE. RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MON.
TEMPERATURES: HIGHS SUN SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SUN, LOW 70S
NORTH TO MID/UPPER 70S SE. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SUN EVE/NIGHT, WITH MID/UPPER 30S NW TO MID
40S SE BY DAYBREAK MON, NEAR NORMAL, BUT SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS COUPLE NIGHTS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...
* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND BEHIND A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO START THE NEXT WEEK. A HARD FREEZE MONDAY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
* DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO CENTRAL NC
BEHIND THE STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, PROPELLED BY A STRONG HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY MID
WEEK, WITH WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW EXPECTED BY
MID WEEK.
LOW TEMPERATURE MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE BIG STORY DURING THIS
PERIOD, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER
20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES ACROSS THE ACROSS CENTRAL NC, LIKELY
RESULTING IN A HARD FREEZE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE, DRY
WEATHER IS GENERALLY EXPECTED WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO START
THE WEEK, WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID/LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40 TO LOWER 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BEFORE WARNING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
TUESDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 40 FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1246 PM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LATER TODAY,
SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERATED BY INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
PROPAGATE FROM EASTERN GA/WESTERN SC NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WILL SOCK
CEILINGS BACK DOWN TO LIFR/IFR LATE THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY, GUSTY
WINDS, AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER STORM
WITH BEST CHANCES AT KRDU/KFAY/KRWI BETWEEN ~23 AND 06Z TONIGHT. ANY
LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT TO OUR NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY, DENSE FOG MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH BEST
CHANCES OVER THE PIEDMONT TAF SITES. ANY LINGERING FOG/SUB-VFR
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BY 15Z (PERHAPS A A BIT LATER AT KRDU/KRWI).
SLY GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT.
OUTLOOK: SIMILARLY STRONG AND GUSTY NWLY SFC WINDS FUNNEL IN BEHIND
THE POLAR FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. A VIGOROUS TROUGH ALOFT
AND ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC, SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MON AND MON NIGHT, WITH A RENEWED SURGE OF EVEN STRONGER
NWLY GUSTINESS AND VIRGA.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...LUCHETTI
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...LUCHETTI/MWS
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