590
FXUS62 KRAH 090019
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
718 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NC THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN
RETREAT NORTH INTO VA AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY. A STRONGER, POLAR
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A VIGOROUS
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 149 PM SATURDAY...
* ELEVATED CONVECTION TONIGHT WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS/COASTAL
PLAIN.
* DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN
LATER TONIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS UPSTREAM CU DEVELOPMENT OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL GA AND PARTS OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERN SC. LINGERING
FOG/STRATUS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL SC PIEDMONT HAS FINALLY DISPERSED
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CU LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THIS VICINITY SHORTLY
AS LOW-LEVEL CIN CONTINUES TO ERODE. AT THE SFC, THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED WESTWARD FROM OUR NORTHERN/CENTRAL
COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN INCREASING WAA REGIME, LARGELY ELEVATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS NORTHEASTERN GA/WESTERN SC THIS
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTH INTO CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECASTED HODOGRAPHS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
ELONGATED PROFILES, WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN
LOCATIONS WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE HIGHEST.
WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AREN'T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE (6.5 C/KM), THE
12Z HREF CONTINUES TO DOUBLE DOWN ON A DECENT CLUSTERING OF MID-
LEVEL HELICITY SWATHS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE PREVIOUS 00Z RUN WAS MORE BULLISH ON POTENTIALLY ANTI-CYCLONIC
ROTATION, BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS IN THIS VICINITY
WITHIN A MOSTLY ELEVATED UNSTABLE REGIME, THE MAIN POTENTIAL HAZARD
CONTINUES TO BE LARGE HAIL TONIGHT (ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE TOO).
SPC DECIDED TO INTRODUCE A 2% TORNADO CONTOUR ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WITH THIS MORNING'S DAY 1
UPDATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER DO SHOW PERHAPS A
VERY BRIEF WINDOW WHERE ENOUGH SFC INSTABILITY MAY COINCIDE WITH
DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS TO PERHAPS PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. HOWEVER, THE WAA REALLY DOESN'T AMPLIFY UNTIL
CLOSER TO SUNDOWN WHEN SFC STABILITY QUICKLY TAKES OVER. AS SUCH,
THINK THAT THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY BE A BIT FURTHER
SOUTHWEST INTO SC. HOWEVER, CAN'T FULLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IN THE NC/SC BORDER VICINITY (SOUTHERN ANSON, RICHMOND, SCOTLAND,
HOKE). BEYOND 23/00Z, THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD
QUICKLY DEVELOP AND TRANSITION THE STORM MODE TO ELEVATED ROTATION
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HAIL/WIND THREAT.
BEYOND SEVERE WEATHER, THE 12Z HREF LPMM FIELD CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POTENTIAL HIGHER TOTALS (2 TO 4
INCHES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS WHERE CELLS MAY TRAIN
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, THERE IS A SIGNAL
FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT, PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...
* CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MAINLY
ALONG/EAST OF US-1/I-95
* STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT, WITH A DRASTIC
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
OVERVIEW: ALOFT, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SWINGING AROUND A PARENT LOW
NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL QUICKLY ACT TO AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE
LEADING S/W WILL LIFT NEWD FROM THE OH VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT S/W, TRACKING SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST. THE THIRD, STRONGEST S/W WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WRN
GREAT LAKES ON SUN, THEN CLOSING OFF AS IT CONTINUES SSEWD ACROSS
THE OH/TN VALLEY SUN EVE/NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, THE LOW LIFTING
NNEWD OUT OF THE AREA SUN MORNING WILL MERGE WITH THE LOW TRACKING
EWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON SUN. AS THIS LOW THEN CONTINUES
GENERALLY EWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN AFT/EVE, THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA SUN EVE, AND SHIFT OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT.
COLD, DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUN NIGHT, AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES SWD OVER THE PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION: THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE VA
BORDER EARLY SUN, BUT EXPECT A LULL IN PRECIPITATION SUN MORN AND
EARLY AFT. WHILE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING
SUN EVE/EARLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ERN PIEDMONT, SANDHILLS, AND
COASTAL PLAIN, THE LATER TIMING (AFTER SUNSET) COULD REDUCE THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS TO WORK WITH, WITH THE BEST
FORCING CHASING THE BEST INSTABILITY. WHILE THE HRRR AND NAM BOTH
SHOW MLCAPE MAXING OUT AROUND 800-1000 J/KG DURING THE AFT, THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED (PWATS OF 1.0-1.2 INCHES).
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS, NO SURPRISE THE BULK SHEAR IS
HIGH, 50-70 KTS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
OVERLAP WITH THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT TAPPING INTO SOME OF THE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GET A STRONGER STORM TO
POP, BUT THE THREAT REMAINS CONDITIONAL. THE MARGINAL RISK FROM THE
SPC REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT AN AREA OF RAIN TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS H85 TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AND THE
MID LEVELS SATURATE, WITH WARM MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING CAA AT THE
SURFACE. RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MON.
TEMPERATURES: HIGHS SUN SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SUN, LOW 70S
NORTH TO MID/UPPER 70S SE. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SUN EVE/NIGHT, WITH MID/UPPER 30S NW TO MID
40S SE BY DAYBREAK MON, NEAR NORMAL, BUT SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS COUPLE NIGHTS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 355 PM SATURDAY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW ALOFT BEHIND A VIGOROUS
MID/UPPER TROUGH. AN INTENSE COLD SNAP ON MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS TEMPERATURES TURN SEASONABLE BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHT'S STRONG COLD FRONT, ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
MID/UPPER TROUGHING WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN US, AND A
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GULF
COAST. STRONG CAA WILL BRING IN SHARPLY COLDER AND DRIER AIR TO
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM MID-40S TO
MID-50S. THIS IS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DEW POINTS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THE DAY. IT
WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND NAM
DEPICTING WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE BIG
STORY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT'S LOWS. GIVEN 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 1270-1280 M RANGE, A FREEZE IS
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NOT ALL OF CENTRAL NC. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID-20S TO AROUND 30, COLDEST IN THE
OUTLYING AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT AND WARMEST IN URBAN PARTS OF THE
TRIANGLE, EASTERN SANDHILLS, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. WE
SHOULD STAY WELL MIXED ON MONDAY NIGHT AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND PUSHES A REINFORCING
ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. SO NW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY, AND
WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER-20S IN MANY
AREAS. A MINORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PARTICULARLY FROM THE ECS
DEPICT POTENTIAL FOR A VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX OR SOME FLURRIES
ACROSS OUR NE COUNTIES WITH THE SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
IT WILL BE FIGHTING DRY AIR AND STRONG DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW. SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
COLD BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER-40S, ALONG WITH WESTERLY WINDS THAT COULD AGAIN GUST TO 20-30
MPH. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
RAPIDLY DO SO ON WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH PUSHES TO
OUR EAST AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS SW WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
EXTENDING FARTHER EAST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FORECAST LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT ARE IN THE LOWER-TO-MID-30S, WHILE FORECAST TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER-50S
TO LOWER-60S. WE WILL TURN EVEN MILDER FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER-30S TO LOWER-
40S (EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD). WILL HAVE TO WATCH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS WE WARM BACK UP, STAY
BREEZY, AND RH VALUES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 25-35% RANGE EACH DAY. BUT
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HAVING TOO
MUCH CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 715 PM SATURDAY...
STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LIFR TO IFR
AREA-WIDE OVERNIGHT, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY, GUSTY
WINDS, AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ACCOMPANYING ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION---WITH BEST CHANCES AT KFAY THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT. ANY
LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT TO OUR NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING.
LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING LESS FAVORABLE FOR DENSE
FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BEHIND THE CONVECTION WILL PROMOTE
GRADUAL LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT OF THE SUB-VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
15 TO 18Z SUNDAY. BREEZY SWLY GUST 15 TO 25 KTS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG POLAR FRONT.
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN TAF SITES (KRDU, KRWI AND KFAY)
AS THE POLAR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SIMILARLY STRONG AND
GUSTY NWLY SFC WINDS FUNNEL IN BEHIND THE POLAR FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MON. A VIGOROUS TROUGH ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC, SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON AND MON NIGHT, WITH
A RENEWED SURGE OF EVEN STRONGER NWLY GUSTINESS AND VIRGA.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...LUCHETTI
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...DANCO
AVIATION...CBL/MWS
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