306
FXUS62 KRAH 090708
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
208 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A QUASI-STATIONARY NOW OVER CENTRAL NC WILL RETREAT NORTH INTO VA AS
A WARM FRONT TODAY. A POLAR FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TONIGHT. A VIGOROUS MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 149 PM SATURDAY...
* ELEVATED CONVECTION TONIGHT WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS/COASTAL
PLAIN.
* DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN
LATER TONIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS UPSTREAM CU DEVELOPMENT OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL GA AND PARTS OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERN SC. LINGERING
FOG/STRATUS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL SC PIEDMONT HAS FINALLY DISPERSED
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CU LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THIS VICINITY SHORTLY
AS LOW-LEVEL CIN CONTINUES TO ERODE. AT THE SFC, THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED WESTWARD FROM OUR NORTHERN/CENTRAL
COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN INCREASING WAA REGIME, LARGELY ELEVATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS NORTHEASTERN GA/WESTERN SC THIS
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTH INTO CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECASTED HODOGRAPHS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
ELONGATED PROFILES, WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN
LOCATIONS WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE HIGHEST.
WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AREN'T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE (6.5 C/KM), THE
12Z HREF CONTINUES TO DOUBLE DOWN ON A DECENT CLUSTERING OF MID-
LEVEL HELICITY SWATHS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE PREVIOUS 00Z RUN WAS MORE BULLISH ON POTENTIALLY ANTI-CYCLONIC
ROTATION, BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS IN THIS VICINITY
WITHIN A MOSTLY ELEVATED UNSTABLE REGIME, THE MAIN POTENTIAL HAZARD
CONTINUES TO BE LARGE HAIL TONIGHT (ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE TOO).
SPC DECIDED TO INTRODUCE A 2% TORNADO CONTOUR ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WITH THIS MORNING'S DAY 1
UPDATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER DO SHOW PERHAPS A
VERY BRIEF WINDOW WHERE ENOUGH SFC INSTABILITY MAY COINCIDE WITH
DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS TO PERHAPS PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. HOWEVER, THE WAA REALLY DOESN'T AMPLIFY UNTIL
CLOSER TO SUNDOWN WHEN SFC STABILITY QUICKLY TAKES OVER. AS SUCH,
THINK THAT THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY BE A BIT FURTHER
SOUTHWEST INTO SC. HOWEVER, CAN'T FULLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IN THE NC/SC BORDER VICINITY (SOUTHERN ANSON, RICHMOND, SCOTLAND,
HOKE). BEYOND 23/00Z, THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD
QUICKLY DEVELOP AND TRANSITION THE STORM MODE TO ELEVATED ROTATION
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HAIL/WIND THREAT.
BEYOND SEVERE WEATHER, THE 12Z HREF LPMM FIELD CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POTENTIAL HIGHER TOTALS (2 TO 4
INCHES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS WHERE CELLS MAY TRAIN
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, THERE IS A SIGNAL
FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT, PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 208 AM SUNDAY...
* FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUE MORNING
* QUICK BURST OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
MON NIGHT
THE CONTINENTAL POLAR FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE COAST BY MON
MORNING. THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR, HOWEVER, WILL STILL BE HUNG UP
ALONG/WEST OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. THAT ARCTIC FRONT WILL ADVANCE
THROUGH MON NIGHT, COINCIDENT WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES DROPPING TO
NEAR 1276 M, WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-NOVEMBER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 12 TO 18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL,
RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE. NORTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE DAY WILL GUST AT TIMES TO 20-25 MPH.
COME MONDAY NIGHT, A STRONG VORT MAX TIED TO THE LARGER TROUGH OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL SWING THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NC, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY. MODEL
FORECASTS DEPICT A STRONG PV ANOMALY WITH THE SHORTWAVE. POINT
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS ALSO DEPICT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. WE CERTAINLY COULD SEE A
QUICK BURST OF RAIN CHANGING TO SOME BRIEF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MON NIGHT WITH THE DYNAMIC NATURE TO THE SYSTEM. IT APPEARS THE
FAVORED AREA WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF US-64. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION, IF ANY, WOULD BE MINOR AND CONFINED TO ELEVATED
SURFACES GIVEN WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES.
OUTSIDE OF ANY PRECIP CHANCES, IT WILL BE RATHER BRISK WITH NW WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH, WEAKENING BY EARLY TUE, RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN
GIVEN THE AIRMASS, WITH LOW TO MID 20S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 20S TO
NEAR 30 IN THE SE. AS A RESULT, WE HOISTED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL NC.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 208 AM SUNDAY...
* FIRE CONCERNS TUE, WED, AND THU WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY
THE DEEP AND VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH ON MON EXITS OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TUE MORNING/AFTERNOON. A NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO
WNW TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS TROUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH WILL BE FLANKED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA. THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA TUE, WITH HIGHS
SOME 14-18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S TUE NIGHT. HIGHS WILL TREND WARMER WED AND
THU AS SW TO W FLOW RETURNS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLS SUN, WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FIRE DANGER CONCERNS TUE, WED, AND THU GIVEN
GUSTY WINDS OF 25-30 MPH COMBINED WITH RH LEVELS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRI WILL SLIDE SOUTH AS
IT APPEARS ANOTHER COLD FRONT, THIS TIME A BACKDOOR ONE, MAY SLIDE
SOUTH LATE FRI OR EARLY SAT, WITH SOME GUIDANCE DEPICTING A 1030 MB
POLAR HIGH. HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRI IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
MAY TREND BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE IF THAT FRONT VERIFIES.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 120 AM SUNDAY...
MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS NOW OVER CNTL NC ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LIFR-
IFR AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
THE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER TO VFR BETWEEN
APPROXIMATELY 15 AND 18Z, WITH THE NWD RETREAT OF A WARM FRONT INTO
VA. SWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY INTO
THE 20S KTS WITH ASSOCIATED CLEARING AND DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING WITH THE NWD RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SWING ACROSS THE REGION WITH ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS EVENING, PRECEDED BY A BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS THAT
MAY DEVELOP AT FAY AND RWI, BEFORE THE FRONT AND FOLLOWING MUCH
DRIER AIR SWEEP THE MOIST AXIS EWD AND OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, POST-FRONTAL NWLY WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 20S KTS AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: A VIGOROUS TROUGH ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC, SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON AND MON NIGHT, WITH
A RENEWED SURGE OF EVEN STRONGER NWLY GUSTINESS, WIDESPREAD VIRGA,
AND PATCHES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT SNOW AT THE SURFACE.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...LUCHETTI
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...MWS
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