677
FXUS62 KRAH 091853
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
152 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A POLAR FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. A VIGOROUS
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 152 PM SUNDAY...
* UNSEASONABLY MILD TODAY, WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EVENING
CONVECTION
* MUCH COOLER, AND BLUSTERY, TONIGHT-MON MORNING
SFC OBS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THIS MORNING'S FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL
INTO VA AS SWLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE MID 70S.
FURTHER WEST, THE POLAR COLD FRONT IS JUST REACHING THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. EXPECT SSWLY GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
MPH TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUNSET.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIMULATE THE FRONT REACHING THE TRIAD NEAR 22-
23Z, THE TRIANGLE/SANDHILLS ~03Z, AND THE COASTAL PLAIN ~04-06Z.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SPC MESONALYSIS DEPICTS ~250 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
SPREAD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC, THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO COINCIDE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WHILE WE QUICKLY STABILIZE WITH SUN DOWN,
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY IN WESTERN/NORTHERN
PIEDMONT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IF SO, GIVEN HOW QUICKLY
FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING, THIS CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED POCKETS OF SMALL HAIL. THIS CONVECTION WILL LARGELY
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND TRANSITION UP INTO VA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. BEYOND THIS INITIAL CONVECTION, EXPECT SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO BLOSSOM ALONG AND EAST OF US-1 INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO STRATIFORM RAIN EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WHILE BULK-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE RIPPING, THINK THE LATE
TIMING, AND CONSEQUENTLY LACK OF INSTABILITY, SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE THREAT FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STRONGER DAMAGING WIND GUST WOULD BE FOR ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. HOWEVER, THINK EVEN
THESE AREAS MIGHT EVEN BE SPARED AS HREF SIMULATED HELICITY SWATHS
CONTINUE TO LARGELY BE LOCATED EAST OF US OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AND
OFFSHORE.
ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN BY 12Z
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT POST-FRONTAL NWLY GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AT
TIMES TONIGHT LINGERING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL
TAKE A BIT TO FUNNEL IN, AND THUS LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY DIP ONLY
INTO THE UPPER 30S (NW) TO MID 40S (SE).
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 208 AM SUNDAY...
* FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUE MORNING
* QUICK BURST OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
MON NIGHT
THE CONTINENTAL POLAR FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE COAST BY MON
MORNING. THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR, HOWEVER, WILL STILL BE HUNG UP
ALONG/WEST OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. THAT ARCTIC FRONT WILL ADVANCE
THROUGH MON NIGHT, COINCIDENT WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES DROPPING TO
NEAR 1276 M, WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-NOVEMBER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 12 TO 18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL,
RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE. NORTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE DAY WILL GUST AT TIMES TO 20-25 MPH.
COME MONDAY NIGHT, A STRONG VORT MAX TIED TO THE LARGER TROUGH OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL SWING THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NC, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY. MODEL
FORECASTS DEPICT A STRONG PV ANOMALY WITH THE SHORTWAVE. POINT
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS ALSO DEPICT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. WE CERTAINLY COULD SEE A
QUICK BURST OF RAIN CHANGING TO SOME BRIEF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MON NIGHT WITH THE DYNAMIC NATURE TO THE SYSTEM. IT APPEARS THE
FAVORED AREA WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF US-64. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION, IF ANY, WOULD BE MINOR AND CONFINED TO ELEVATED
SURFACES GIVEN WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES.
OUTSIDE OF ANY PRECIP CHANCES, IT WILL BE RATHER BRISK WITH NW WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH, WEAKENING BY EARLY TUE, RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN
GIVEN THE AIRMASS, WITH LOW TO MID 20S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 20S TO
NEAR 30 IN THE SE. AS A RESULT, WE HOISTED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL NC.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 208 AM SUNDAY...
* FIRE CONCERNS TUE, WED, AND THU WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY
THE DEEP AND VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH ON MON EXITS OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TUE MORNING/AFTERNOON. A NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO
WNW TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS TROUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH WILL BE FLANKED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA. THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA TUE, WITH HIGHS
SOME 14-18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S TUE NIGHT. HIGHS WILL TREND WARMER WED AND
THU AS SW TO W FLOW RETURNS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLS SUN, WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FIRE DANGER CONCERNS TUE, WED, AND THU GIVEN
GUSTY WINDS OF 25-30 MPH COMBINED WITH RH LEVELS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRI WILL SLIDE SOUTH AS
IT APPEARS ANOTHER COLD FRONT, THIS TIME A BACKDOOR ONE, MAY SLIDE
SOUTH LATE FRI OR EARLY SAT, WITH SOME GUIDANCE DEPICTING A 1030 MB
POLAR HIGH DIVING SOUTH FROM CANADA. HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRI
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MAY TREND BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE IF THAT
FRONT VERIFIES.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 106 PM SUNDAY...
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT
GENERALLY EXPECTING CLOUD BASES TO LIFT TO VFR BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SWLY SFC FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KTS TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ENTER
THE TRIAD AROUND ~23Z AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH KRDU/KFAY AROUND ~02Z
AND KRWI ~04Z. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY GENERATE ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR KINT/KGSO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD CREATE BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AND MAYBE ISOLATED SMALL HAIL. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS TO BLOSSOM ACROSS EASTERN AREAS LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLEARING EAST BY MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECT POST-FRONTAL NWLY GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 TO 35 KTS TO STAY UP
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN A BIT WITH TIME MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK: A VIGOROUS TROUGH ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC, SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON AND MON NIGHT, WITH
A RENEWED SURGE OF NWLY GUSTINESS, WIDESPREAD VIRGA, AND PATCHES OF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT SNOW AT THE SURFACE.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...LUCHETTI
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...LUCHETTI/MWS
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