417
FXUS62 KRAH 100719
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
215 AM EST MON NOV 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
A POLAR FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A VIGOROUS MID
AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...
* A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT WILL END THE GROWING SEASON.
* A RECORD STRONG AND COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64 THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
* STRONG BLUSTERY WINDS TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS.
OVERVIEW: A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AREAWIDE TONIGHT. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT NOW OVER E NC WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING, WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS IS BEING DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL MID-UPPER LOW THAT IS
NOW CENTERED OVER S LK MICHIGAN AND WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN AND DIG
OVER THE CAROLINAS AS IT SHIFTS TO THE E US THROUGH TONIGHT. BY
SEVERAL METRICS, THE STRENGTH OF THIS MID-UPPER LOW IS UNPRECEDENTED
OR NEARLY SO; THE 925-500 MB TEMPERATURES AND 700-500 MB HEIGHTS
OVER OUR REGION ARE PROJECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW THE 1ST PERCENTILE
TONIGHT. THE INCOMING POST-FRONTAL SURFACE AIR MASS, A VERY LARGE
AND FRIGID HIGH NOW CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SSE TOWARD THE GULF STATES AS ITS COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO OUR
AREA. CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE E CWA, E OF A 150+ KT SW UPPER JET
SITUATED AHEAD OF THE INCOMING TROUGH, AND WHILE MUCH OF THESE WILL
SHIFT TO OUR E BY MIDDAY, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON, LASTING INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPS/WINDS: COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO OUR AREA IN
WAVES EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S NW TO SE THROUGH DAYBREAK. STRONG CAA AND REDUCED INSOLATION
LATER TODAY COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES 50+ M BELOW NORMAL
SUPPORTS HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE. THEN TONIGHT,
SEVERAL FACTORS SUPPORT LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S TO AROUND 30,
INCLUDING STATISTICAL GUIDANCE (WHICH HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT),
PROJECTED THICKNESSES AROUND 75 M BELOW NORMAL, AND THE ANOMALOUS
NATURE OF THE COLD TEMPS/LOW HEIGHTS JUST ALOFT. THESE LOWS SHOULD
HOLD ABOVE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE, HOWEVER, WITH CONTINUED MIXING
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP IN THE 10-15 MPH
RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 15-25 MPH TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING A FIRM END TO THE GROWING SEASON IN CENTRAL NC. WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE AREA EARLY TUE
MORNING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES: A STRONG VORTICITY MAX SWINGING THROUGH THE
MEAN TROUGH BASE WILL MOVE INTO W NC BY EARLY THIS EVENING THEN
CROSS THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT. INTENSE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
EXPECTED, WITH 925-700 MB LAPSE RATES REACHING 7.5-8.0 C/KM AND A
FEW HOURS OF NEAR SATURATION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MIXED DEPTH, AS
THE TROPOPAUSE IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 550 MB. RECENT
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS FAVOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT, MAINLY FROM 10P TO 5A, AND
THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST FEW CAM ITERATIONS. THIS
WOULD MOST CERTAINLY FALL AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF ICE IN THE CLOUD AND THE SUB-FREEZING AIR TEMPS
EXPECTED NEAR THE GROUND. AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE NOTED, THE RISK
FOR ANY ACCUMULATION ON PAVEMENT IS VERY LOW GIVEN THE WARM GROUND
TEMPS (STATE CLIMATE OFFICE ECONET DATA SHOWS 10 CM SOIL TEMPS STILL
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S) AND THE DRYING EFFECTS OF A NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT. BUT A FEW FLAKES MAY ACCRUE ON GRASSY AND
ELEVATED SURFACES, ESP IN THE FAR N PART OF THE NC PIEDMONT. -GIH
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...
TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 400 PM SUNDAY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW ALOFT AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR WEST. BY SUNDAY,
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
US WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING US FROM THE WEST, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING US OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, COLD BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER-40S, ALONG WITH WESTERLY
WINDS THAT COULD AGAIN GUST TO 20-30 MPH. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO
MODIFY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL RAPIDLY DO SO ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS SW WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR SOUTH EXTENDING
FARTHER EAST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FORECAST LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE
IN THE LOWER-TO-MID-30S, WHILE FORECAST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER-50S TO LOWER-60S.
WE WILL TURN EVEN MILDER LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S EVERYWHERE
BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH MAY DROP A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO
CENTRAL NC ON SATURDAY, PERHAPS RESULTING IN A SLIGHT COOLDOWN,
BEFORE WE WARM BACK UP ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WE STAY BREEZY AND RH VALUES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 25-35%
RANGE. THIS WILL ALSO DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS TONIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 110 AM MONDAY...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NC COASTAL PLAIN WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING E EARLY THIS MORNING, MOVING OFFSHORE BY MID
MORNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOW OVER THE E
(RWI/FAY) WILL EXIT BY 07Z. VFR CLOUDS PERSIST AT ALL CENTRAL NC
TERMINALS, BUT THESE WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS MORNING, BY
AROUND 08Z AT INT/GSO, AROUND 10Z AT RDU, AND 12Z-14Z AT RWI/FAY.
THEN, REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS BASED AROUND 7KFT AGL IS
EXPECTED AFTER 18Z, MOSTLY LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD, AS A POWERFUL MID-UPPER LEVEL MOVES IN FROM THE W. PATCHY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, AFTER
02Z, AT INT/GSO, AND PERHAPS REACHING RDU PRIOR TO 06Z TUE, LASTING
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. CIGS MAY DROP TO ~3500 FT AGL WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, AND BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION,
SO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WNW OR NW THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SUSTAINED AT 8-15 KTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 18-24 KTS,
PARTICULARLY EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN STARTING LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z TUE, THE CHANCE FOR PATCHY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT
RDU AND RWI, HOWEVER CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10Z, AND VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THEREAFTER AT ALL SITES THROUGH FRI. WINDS
WILL AGAIN BE GUSTY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON TUE FROM THE
WNW, AND ON WED FROM THE WSW. -GIH
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DANCO
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page