117
FXUS62 KRAH 110557
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1255 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY, ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARMUP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 252 PM MONDAY...
* A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT WILL END THE GROWING SEASON.
* A RECORD STRONG AND COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64 THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
* STRONG BLUSTERY WINDS TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS.
THE ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIRAL AND SLIDE SOUTH OVER
THE TN VALLEY GENERATING ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HERE LOCALLY, WERE LOCKED INTO POST-
FRONTAL WNWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH TEMPS LARGELY IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. STARTING TO SEE SOME COOLER TEMPS NEAR AND ENTERING OUR
WESTERN PIEDMONT, WITH DEW POINTS IN THIS VICINITY CRASHING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS. EXPECT WNWLY GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT, WITH A SECONDARY SURGE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY.
THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS ALL SIGNS SIGNAL A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE
TONIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THIS MID-UPPER LOW IS QUITE ANOMALOUS, AS
TEMPS AND HEIGHTS FROM 1000 TO 500 MB ARE PROJECTED TO BE BELOW THE
1ST PERCENTILE COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY AS IT MOVES OVER US. LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESSES TUESDAY MORNING WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 1260 TO
1270M RANGE, EASILY SUPPORTIVE OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS. ALL IN ALL,
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S, WITH UPPER TEEN
WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE GUSTINESS OVERNIGHT.
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64 EARLY
TONIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL SATURATION DEPTH
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS LIMITED, BUT ENOUGH THERE TO
GENERATE SNOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL SUB-CLOUD DRY LAYER. AS SUCH, MUCH OF THIS SNOW MAY
VERY WELL NEVER REACH THE SFC AND INSTEAD FALL AS VIRGA. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. THE HRRR, FOR EXAMPLE,
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A LIGHT SNOW BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS
TIME FRAME AND LOCATION DEPICT A DEEPER DRY LAYER COMPARED TO AREAS
FURTHER NORTH LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE SECOND BAND MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. REGARDLESS OF HOW MUCH LIGHT SNOW REACHES THE SFC, THE
OVERALL MESSAGE REMAINS THE SAME THAT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AS GROUND TEMPS WILL BE FAR TOO WARM (IN ADDITION TO DRYING
NWLY FLOW) FOR ACCUMULATION (OTHER THAN PERHAPS ISOLATED ELEVATED
SURFACES COULD SEE A DUSTING).
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 252 PM MONDAY...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH LAST NIGHT WILL
HAVE PUSHED NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. DESPITE THE FRONT BEING WELL OFFSHORE,
THERE WILL STILL BE A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GULF HIGH
AND THE CANADIAN LOW, KEEPING SUSTAINED WIND AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH. AIR WITH DEWPOINTS WELL BELOW FREEZING WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA TODAY AND REMAIN ON TUESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHER WINDS
AND DRY AIR, ALTHOUGH AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL. TUESDAY
WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OUT OF THE NEXT SEVEN FOR MOST LOCATIONS,
ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TODAY AND TOMORROW IN THE TRIAD, AND
IT DOES NOT APPEAR TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE WILL RISE OUT OF THE 40S
TOMORROW. AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT, THIS
SHOULD MODERATE OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY FROM TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH MANY
PLACES WILL STILL DROP TO AROUND 30 DEGREES. NEVERTHELESS, THE
GROWING SEASON IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END IN ALL LOCATIONS
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 252 PM MONDAY...
WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, VERY DRY AIR
SHOULD PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM OCCURRING, WITH EVEN CLOUD
COVER MINIMAL ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND VALUES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, WITH THE SUSTAINED WIND AROUND
10 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COULD PERSIST
WITH THE HIGHER WINDS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, THERE WILL NOT BE A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY AT THE EARLIEST, AND MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WON'T COME UNTIL
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND, DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY. AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY, THIS SHOULD MODERATE TEMPERATURES, AND MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD RETURN TO THE LOW 60S BY WEDNESDAY. BY THE WEEKEND,
SOME 70S WILL RETURN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1255 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MOSTLY BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS MORNING, AND A CLUSTER OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS NOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC MAY BRING BRIEF LOWER CLOUDS
(MOSTLY SCT) BASED AT 2000-3000 FT AGL TO RDU/RWI/FAY 06Z-10Z. FAIR
SKIES WITH GENERALLY SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AT 8000-15000 FT AGL ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WNW OR W AT
12-16 KTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 20-28 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY,
UNTIL AROUND 22Z. A MID-LEVEL CIG IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD
(AFTER 02Z) AT GSO/RDU/RWI. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AS WELL, WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE
SW UNDER 10 KTS AND WINDS JUST ALOFT FROM THE SW AT 35-40 KTS.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z WED, LLWS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 12Z.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH SAT.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 945 PM MONDAY...
* AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY FOR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NC
ALTHOUGH RECENT RAINFALL HAS IMPROVED SOIL MOISTURE, ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE
NCFS, IT HAS BEEN DETERMINED THAT A COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT AND WITH FREQUENT WESTERLY GUSTS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AND AN INCREASED
RISK OF ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...LUCHETTI
SHORT TERM...GREEN
LONG TERM...GREEN
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
FIRE WX...CBL
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