612
FXUS62 KRAH 110651
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
150 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION WILL PUSH OFF THE
COAST THIS MORNING, WITH CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL
WARMUP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 145 AM TUESDAY...
* A HARD FREEZE THIS MORNING WILL END THE GROWING SEASON.
* ANOTHER CHILLY DAY EXPECTED WITH BRISK WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
NEAR-RECORD DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRIGGER AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW,
AIDED BY DEEP MIXING AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT, PERHAPS LEADING TO
ISOLATED SPOTS OF A LIGHT DUSTING ON GRASS BUT LITTLE ELSE, GIVEN
THE WARM PAVEMENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AN ENHANCEMENT IN SURFACE
WINDS AND GUSTS JUST AHEAD OF AND WITH THESE LIGHT SNOW AREAS. THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING, AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SCATTERED MID CLOUDS AT
MOST THROUGH THE DAY AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER AND DEEPENS. COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SW, BUT THE TIGHT MSLP
GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP US
IN A BLUSTERY PATTERN WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON, WHEN SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE ONSET OF
DECOUPLING. WITH CONTINUED CAA, LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE ~70 M
BELOW NORMAL, SUPPORTING HIGHS OF 45-50, DESPITE GOOD INSOLATION.
SKIES WILL BE FAIR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING WITH RAPID COOLING AS
THE SURFACE WINDS FALL OFF. HOWEVER, A BATCH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
NOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND NC TONIGHT, RESULTING
IN A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS. AND BASED ON THE FAVORABLE VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE,
INCLUDING HIGH LOW-MID LEVEL STABILITY, WINDS INCREASING WITH HEIGHT
TO FAST WNW MID LEVEL FLOW, AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NNE WITH RIDGING
TO OUR W, SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF THESE CLOUDS IS LIKELY.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LESS-COLD NIGHT, BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL,
WITH LOWS GENERALLY 30-35. -GIH
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 252 PM MONDAY...
TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...
* MARGINAL FIRE DANGER RISK THU
* MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY ONWARD
* LIMITED RAIN CHANCES SUN AND MON
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST OVER THE TN VALLEY REGION THU WILL SETTLE
OVER THE CAROLINAS FRI BEFORE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST ON SAT.
GUIDANCE DEPICTS GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES, FAVORING
A CONTINUED WARMING TREND FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THU TO MID
TO UPPER 60S BY SAT. WE ARE STILL WATCHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THAT MAY SLIDE INTO OUR NE ZONES SAT MORNING. RIGHT NOW, GUIDANCE
REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW FAR SW IT MAY GET, WITH THE GFS THE FURTHEST
WEST INTO THE TRIANGLE, WHEREAS OTHER DATA SUGGEST JUST THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN. FOR NOW, WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE, WITH LOW 60S OVER
JUST THE NE ON SAT. MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE SUNNY, BUT IT DOES
APPEAR THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS THU ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WITH A FAVORABLE JET PATTERN. AND ON
SAT, WE COULD SEE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY.
IT APPEARS THE LATEST ENSEMBLE, DETERMINISTIC, AND AI GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING DRIER FOR THE SUN AND MON PERIOD. THESE SOLUTIONS SHOW
A SYSTEM TRACKING TO OUR NORTH INTO THE NEW ENGLAND AREA. WITH THE
ENERGY SKIRTING TO THE NORTH OF US AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST,
A DRY AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND IS FAVORED SUN. SUN COULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW TO PERHAPS MID 70S. THE SYSTEM
MAY BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MON OR EARLY TUE, BUT ITS
PASSAGE ALSO APPEARS TO BE DRY AT THIS POINT.
IN REGARDS TO FIRE CONCERNS, THU AND FRI WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH
RH LEVELS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW-MID 30S. HOWEVER, GUSTS WILL
WEAKEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVERHEAD. THU COULD BE A MARGINAL
RISK WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO 20 MPH. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
SUNDAY BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH, BUT RH LEVELS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
40S TO LOW 50S TO KEEP FIRE CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1255 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MOSTLY BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS MORNING, AND A CLUSTER OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS NOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC MAY BRING BRIEF LOWER CLOUDS
(MOSTLY SCT) BASED AT 2000-3000 FT AGL TO RDU/RWI/FAY 06Z-10Z. FAIR
SKIES WITH GENERALLY SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AT 8000-15000 FT AGL ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WNW OR W AT
12-16 KTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 20-28 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY,
UNTIL AROUND 22Z. A MID-LEVEL CIG IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD
(AFTER 02Z) AT GSO/RDU/RWI. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z AS WELL, WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE
SW UNDER 10 KTS AND WINDS JUST ALOFT FROM THE SW AT 35-40 KTS.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z WED, LLWS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 12Z.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH SAT.-GIH
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 945 PM MONDAY...
* AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY FOR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NC
ALTHOUGH RECENT RAINFALL HAS IMPROVED SOIL MOISTURE, ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE
NCFS, IT HAS BEEN DETERMINED THAT A COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT AND WITH FREQUENT WESTERLY GUSTS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AND AN INCREASED
RISK OF ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...CBL
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