458
FXUS62 KRAH 111124
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
625 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING,
WITH CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
DAY. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK, ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARMUP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 145 AM TUESDAY...
* A HARD FREEZE THIS MORNING WILL END THE GROWING SEASON.
* ANOTHER CHILLY DAY EXPECTED WITH BRISK WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
NEAR-RECORD DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRIGGER AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW,
AIDED BY DEEP MIXING AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT, PERHAPS LEADING TO
ISOLATED SPOTS OF A LIGHT DUSTING ON GRASS BUT LITTLE ELSE, GIVEN
THE WARM PAVEMENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AN ENHANCEMENT IN SURFACE
WINDS AND GUSTS JUST AHEAD OF AND WITH THESE LIGHT SNOW AREAS. THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING, AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SCATTERED MID CLOUDS AT
MOST THROUGH THE DAY AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER AND DEEPENS. COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SW, BUT THE TIGHT MSLP
GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP US
IN A BLUSTERY PATTERN WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON, WHEN SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE ONSET OF
DECOUPLING. WITH CONTINUED CAA, LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE ~70 M
BELOW NORMAL, SUPPORTING HIGHS OF 45-50, DESPITE GOOD INSOLATION.
SKIES WILL BE FAIR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING WITH RAPID COOLING AS
THE SURFACE WINDS FALL OFF. HOWEVER, A BATCH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
NOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND NC TONIGHT, RESULTING
IN A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS. AND BASED ON THE FAVORABLE VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE,
INCLUDING HIGH LOW-MID LEVEL STABILITY, WINDS INCREASING WITH HEIGHT
TO FAST WNW MID LEVEL FLOW, AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NNE WITH RIDGING
TO OUR W, SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF THESE CLOUDS IS LIKELY.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LESS-COLD NIGHT, BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL,
WITH LOWS GENERALLY 30-35. -GIH
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 220 AM TUESDAY...
* A SUN-FILLED AND SLIGHTLY COOL DAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS IT SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES, WHILE BROAD SHALLOW TROUGHING HOLDS OVER E NOAM.
DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST, WITH A STEADY NW STEERING FLOW AND A
DRY COLUMN, SO EXPECT VERY FEW CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. THICKNESSES
WILL STILL BE AROUND 15-20 M BELOW NORMAL, BUT WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE, HIGHS SHOULD JUST BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. TOWARD SUNSET, A MID LEVEL JET STREAK DIVING THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE, LEADING TO A TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE N. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. -GIH
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...
* MARGINAL FIRE DANGER RISK THU
* MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY ONWARD
* LIMITED RAIN CHANCES SUN AND MON
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST OVER THE TN VALLEY REGION THU WILL SETTLE
OVER THE CAROLINAS FRI BEFORE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST ON SAT.
GUIDANCE DEPICTS GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES, FAVORING
A CONTINUED WARMING TREND FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THU TO MID
TO UPPER 60S BY SAT. WE ARE STILL WATCHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THAT MAY SLIDE INTO OUR NE ZONES SAT MORNING. RIGHT NOW, GUIDANCE
REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW FAR SW IT MAY GET, WITH THE GFS THE FURTHEST
WEST INTO THE TRIANGLE, WHEREAS OTHER DATA SUGGEST JUST THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN. FOR NOW, WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE, WITH LOW 60S OVER
JUST THE NE ON SAT. MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE SUNNY, BUT IT DOES
APPEAR THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS THU ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WITH A FAVORABLE JET PATTERN. AND ON
SAT, WE COULD SEE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY.
IT APPEARS THE LATEST ENSEMBLE, DETERMINISTIC, AND AI GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING DRIER FOR THE SUN AND MON PERIOD. THESE SOLUTIONS SHOW
A SYSTEM TRACKING TO OUR NORTH INTO THE NEW ENGLAND AREA. WITH THE
ENERGY SKIRTING TO THE NORTH OF US AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST,
A DRY AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND IS FAVORED SUN. SUN COULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW TO PERHAPS MID 70S. THE SYSTEM
MAY BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MON OR EARLY TUE, BUT ITS
PASSAGE ALSO APPEARS TO BE DRY AT THIS POINT.
IN REGARDS TO FIRE CONCERNS, THU AND FRI WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH
RH LEVELS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW-MID 30S. HOWEVER, GUSTS WILL
WEAKEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVERHEAD. THU COULD BE A MARGINAL
RISK WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO 20 MPH. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
SUNDAY BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH, BUT RH LEVELS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
40S TO LOW 50S TO KEEP FIRE CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 625 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FAIR SKIES WITH GENERALLY SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AT 80K-15K FT
AGL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WNW
OR W AT 10-16 KTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 20-28 KTS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY, UNTIL AROUND 22Z. A MID-LEVEL CIG IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
PERIOD (AFTER 02Z) AT GSO/RDU/RWI. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS STARTING AFTER 02Z AS WELL, WITH SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE SW UNDER 10 KTS AND WINDS JUST ALOFT FROM THE SW AT
35-40 KTS.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z WED, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGH SAT, UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. -GIH
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 945 PM MONDAY...
* AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY FOR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NC.
ALTHOUGH RECENT RAINFALL HAS IMPROVED SOIL MOISTURE, ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE
NCFS, IT HAS BEEN DETERMINED THAT A COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT AND WITH FREQUENT WESTERLY GUSTS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AND AN INCREASED
RISK OF ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-
073>078-083>086-088-089.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...CBL
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