919
FXUS62 KRAH 111729
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1229 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING,
WITH CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
DAY. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK, ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARMUP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 145 AM TUESDAY...
* A HARD FREEZE THIS MORNING WILL END THE GROWING SEASON.
* ANOTHER CHILLY DAY EXPECTED WITH BRISK WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
NEAR-RECORD DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRIGGER AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW,
AIDED BY DEEP MIXING AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT, PERHAPS LEADING TO
ISOLATED SPOTS OF A LIGHT DUSTING ON GRASS BUT LITTLE ELSE, GIVEN
THE WARM PAVEMENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AN ENHANCEMENT IN SURFACE
WINDS AND GUSTS JUST AHEAD OF AND WITH THESE LIGHT SNOW AREAS. THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING, AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SCATTERED MID CLOUDS AT
MOST THROUGH THE DAY AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER AND DEEPENS. COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SW, BUT THE TIGHT MSLP
GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP US
IN A BLUSTERY PATTERN WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON, WHEN SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE ONSET OF
DECOUPLING. WITH CONTINUED CAA, LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE ~70 M
BELOW NORMAL, SUPPORTING HIGHS OF 45-50, DESPITE GOOD INSOLATION.
SKIES WILL BE FAIR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING WITH RAPID COOLING AS
THE SURFACE WINDS FALL OFF. HOWEVER, A BATCH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
NOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND NC TONIGHT, RESULTING
IN A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS. AND BASED ON THE FAVORABLE VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE,
INCLUDING HIGH LOW-MID LEVEL STABILITY, WINDS INCREASING WITH HEIGHT
TO FAST WNW MID LEVEL FLOW, AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NNE WITH RIDGING
TO OUR W, SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF THESE CLOUDS IS LIKELY.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LESS-COLD NIGHT, BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL,
WITH LOWS GENERALLY 30-35. -GIH
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1228 PM TUESDAY...
* MOSTLY SUNNY, BREEZY AND CONTINUED DRY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER BY WED
MORNING AND RESULT IN SURFACE WINDS BACKING TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND DIRECTION. AS A RESULT, LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE ROUGHLY 60M COMPARED TO MON EVENING (ROUGHLY 40M COMPARED TO
FORECASTED THICKNESSES FOR THIS EVENING) AND FAVOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY. ADDITIONALLY, A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND CONTRIBUTE TO SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 MPH AND FREQUENT GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH, MAINLY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD LARGELY STAY
ABOVE 30% AS RAPID WARMING AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OFFSET BY RISING
DEW POINTS THROUGH PEAK HEATING. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE NEED FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ABATE AROUND SUNSET. LIGHT
STIRRING AND/OR POCKETS OF CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN PERIODIC RADIATIONAL COOLING WED EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A STREAMER OF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WED EVENING WILL BE DIRECTED
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT INTO THURS. THIS MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY BE OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED AND RESULT IN OVERCAST SKIES
BLOSSOMING OVER THE I-85 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD PUT A
LID ON ANY ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT, BUT LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT MAY STILL
BE ABLE TO COOL INTO THE MID-30S BY DAYBREAK.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1228 PM TUESDAY...
THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES, AND WHILE A
COLD FRONT COULD TRY TO SNEAK ACROSS THE VA-NC BORDER SATURDAY,
THERE WILL BE MINIMAL MOISTURE, AND THERE IS NO CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THE FIRST REAL HINT OF ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME FROM THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE SUNDAY NIGHT,
BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A WET OUTLIER, WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE,
DETERMINISTIC GFS, AND DETERMINISTIC ECMWF ALL HOLDING OFF UNTIL AT
LEAST MONDAY NIGHT IF NOT TUESDAY TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA.
THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LESS THAN THEY ARE TODAY OR
TOMORROW, BUT STILL NOT ZERO TO END THE WORK WEEK. MINIMUM RH VALUES
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S, AND THERE
HAS BEEN MINIMUM RAINFALL RECENTLY. HOWEVER, MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL
ONLY BE 15-20 MPH ON THURSDAY AND ONLY 10-15 MPH ON FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND, MINIMUM RH VALUES ONLY DROP INTO THE 40S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN BACK TO NORMAL (LOW TO MID 60S) BY
THURSDAY, WITH NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS RISING INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY.
THE ONE CAVEAT IS WHETHER COOLER AIR COULD SLIP INTO NORTHERN
COUNTIES ON SATURDAY WITH THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL DROP
A COUPLE DEGREES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. AFTER ANOTHER
NIGHT IN THE 30S THURSDAY NIGHT, LOWS SHOULD RETURN TO THE 40S BY
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS ONLY FALLING INTO THE
LOWER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 625 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FAIR SKIES WITH GENERALLY SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AT 80K-15K FT
AGL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WNW
OR W AT 10-16 KTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 20-28 KTS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY, UNTIL AROUND 22Z. A MID-LEVEL CIG IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
PERIOD (AFTER 02Z) AT GSO/RDU/RWI. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS STARTING AFTER 02Z AS WELL, WITH SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE SW UNDER 10 KTS AND WINDS JUST ALOFT FROM THE SW AT
35-40 KTS.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z WED, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGH SAT, UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. -GIH
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 945 PM MONDAY...
* AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY FOR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NC.
ALTHOUGH RECENT RAINFALL HAS IMPROVED SOIL MOISTURE, ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE
NCFS, IT HAS BEEN DETERMINED THAT A COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT AND WITH FREQUENT WESTERLY GUSTS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AND AN INCREASED
RISK OF ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...GREEN
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...CBL
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