643
FXUS62 KRAH 120709
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
210 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE MID SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 140 AM WEDNESDAY...
* SUNNY, BREEZY, AND LESS CHILLY TODAY.
ONCE THE EXISTING HIGH CLOUDS OVER OUR NE EXIT BEFORE DAWN, A DRY
AND SUBSIDING COLUMN WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY, WITH DRY
AIR ADVECTION AT ALL LEVELS, AS NOTED ON GOES LAYER WV IMAGERY.
WE'LL MAINTAIN A TIGHT MSLP GRADIENT TODAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER FL AND THE NE GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER S ONTARIO,
WHILE ALOFT, A DRY AND GENTLY CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HOLD OVER
THE E CONUS, WITH PERSISTENT FAST NW FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NC. THE ONSET OF WAA WITH SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES TO VALUES JUST 15-20 M BELOW NORMAL, A FAR CRY
FROM THE 50-70+ M BELOW NORMAL THICKNESSES OF THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. BALANCED WITH HIGH INSOLATION, HIGHS SHOULD BE JUST A BIT
BELOW NORMAL, 60-65. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY
UNCHANGED TONIGHT, WITH DEEPLY DRY AIR THROUGH THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS, AND DECOUPLING NEAR SUNSET WILL RESULT IN A DROPOFF OF
SURFACE WINDS. A MID LEVEL JET STREAK WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH WILL
SWEEP FROM OH/WV ACROSS VA AND THE DELMARVA AND OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT, AND A SHOT OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDS STARTING IN THE LATE EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
NIGHT, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE N HALF. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 35-45
RANGE, ALTHOUGH IF THE CLOUDS THICKEN QUICKLY ACROSS THE N, TEMPS
THERE MAY BE ON THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE. -GIH
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 210 AM WEDNESDAY...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING
ACROSS N AND W SECTIONS, WHERE THE PASSING JET STREAK ALOFT WILL
INDUCE LOCALIZED STRONG DIVERGENCE. ONCE THIS EXITS, SUNSHINE SHOULD
INCREASE BY MIDDAY, WITH FAIR SKIES THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AS
PWS REMAIN LOW WITHIN THE FLAT NW FLOW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN
GENERALLY A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL, FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE N TO
MID 60S S. CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE ANEW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE NOW NOTED OVER N ID/W MT
SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA. THE LOW LEVELS WILL STAY DRY, HOWEVER, SO
NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S. -GIH
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1228 PM TUESDAY...
THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES, AND WHILE A
COLD FRONT COULD TRY TO SNEAK ACROSS THE VA-NC BORDER SATURDAY,
THERE WILL BE MINIMAL MOISTURE, AND THERE IS NO CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THE FIRST REAL HINT OF ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME FROM THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE SUNDAY NIGHT,
BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A WET OUTLIER, WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE,
DETERMINISTIC GFS, AND DETERMINISTIC ECMWF ALL HOLDING OFF UNTIL AT
LEAST MONDAY NIGHT IF NOT TUESDAY TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA.
THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LESS THAN THEY ARE TODAY OR
TOMORROW, BUT STILL NOT ZERO TO END THE WORK WEEK. MINIMUM RH VALUES
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S, AND THERE
HAS BEEN MINIMUM RAINFALL RECENTLY. HOWEVER, MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL
ONLY BE 15-20 MPH ON THURSDAY AND ONLY 10-15 MPH ON FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND, MINIMUM RH VALUES ONLY DROP INTO THE 40S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN BACK TO NORMAL (LOW TO MID 60S) BY
THURSDAY, WITH NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS RISING INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY.
THE ONE CAVEAT IS WHETHER COOLER AIR COULD SLIP INTO NORTHERN
COUNTIES ON SATURDAY WITH THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL DROP
A COUPLE DEGREES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. AFTER ANOTHER
NIGHT IN THE 30S THURSDAY NIGHT, LOWS SHOULD RETURN TO THE 40S BY
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS ONLY FALLING INTO THE
LOWER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1145 PM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
WEAKLY PERTURBED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A 35-45 KT LLJ AROUND 1.5 KFT ABOVE THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL RESULT IN LLWS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THRU
DAYBREAK.
AFTER SUNRISE, BREEZY SWLY WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WILL DEVELOP AND
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK: PREDOMINATELY DRY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...GREEN
AVIATION...CBL
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