435
FXUS62 KRAH 121730
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1230 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE MID SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 140 AM WEDNESDAY...
* SUNNY, BREEZY, AND LESS CHILLY TODAY.
ONCE THE EXISTING HIGH CLOUDS OVER OUR NE EXIT BEFORE DAWN, A DRY
AND SUBSIDING COLUMN WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY, WITH DRY
AIR ADVECTION AT ALL LEVELS, AS NOTED ON GOES LAYER WV IMAGERY.
WE'LL MAINTAIN A TIGHT MSLP GRADIENT TODAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER FL AND THE NE GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER S ONTARIO,
WHILE ALOFT, A DRY AND GENTLY CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HOLD OVER
THE E CONUS, WITH PERSISTENT FAST NW FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NC. THE ONSET OF WAA WITH SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES TO VALUES JUST 15-20 M BELOW NORMAL, A FAR CRY
FROM THE 50-70+ M BELOW NORMAL THICKNESSES OF THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. BALANCED WITH HIGH INSOLATION, HIGHS SHOULD BE JUST A BIT
BELOW NORMAL, 60-65. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY
UNCHANGED TONIGHT, WITH DEEPLY DRY AIR THROUGH THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS, AND DECOUPLING NEAR SUNSET WILL RESULT IN A DROPOFF OF
SURFACE WINDS. A MID LEVEL JET STREAK WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH WILL
SWEEP FROM OH/WV ACROSS VA AND THE DELMARVA AND OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT, AND A SHOT OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDS STARTING IN THE LATE EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
NIGHT, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE N HALF. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 35-45
RANGE, ALTHOUGH IF THE CLOUDS THICKEN QUICKLY ACROSS THE N, TEMPS
THERE MAY BE ON THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE. -GIH
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 210 AM WEDNESDAY...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING
ACROSS N AND W SECTIONS, WHERE THE PASSING JET STREAK ALOFT WILL
INDUCE LOCALIZED STRONG DIVERGENCE. ONCE THIS EXITS, SUNSHINE SHOULD
INCREASE BY MIDDAY, WITH FAIR SKIES THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AS
PWS REMAIN LOW WITHIN THE FLAT NW FLOW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN
GENERALLY A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL, FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE N TO
MID 60S S. CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE ANEW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE NOW NOTED OVER N ID/W MT
SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA. THE LOW LEVELS WILL STAY DRY, HOWEVER, SO
NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S. -GIH
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 215 AM WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S., ALLOWING FOR A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EVEN WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND AS
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DRY COLD
FRONT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
70S, WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY (LOWER TO MID 70S).
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN MILD, IN
THE 60S. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, WITH THE WARMEST MORNING BEING SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S THEN.
DRY WEATHER IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY,
ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH
HOW THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE. THUS FOR NOW, WILL KEEP POPS LOW,
AND WITH NO MENTION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AND
GUSTY AT 12 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISH TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z THU, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGH SUN.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...RAH
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