231
FXUS62 KRAH 122352
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
652 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE MID SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1250 PM WEDNESDAY...
MILDER WITH DIMINISHING SW BREEZE THIS EVENING, MAINLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. A
WEAK APPALACHIAN SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL EXIST IN THE OVERALL WSW
FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DRY FLOW; HOWEVER, DEW POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 30S TO NEAR 40 LATE TONIGHT. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY CREATE A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE MILDER AND DRY TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 37-42 RANGE FOR THE MOST PART.
SW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON, THEN
DECREASE TO 10 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1250 PM WEDNESDAY...
* SHORT PERIOD OF MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS POSSIBLE THURS
AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP BELOW 30% AND WIND
GUSTS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH.
OVERALL A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED. A LARGE OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS
SHIELD (OR OTHERWISE KNOWN AS A STANDING WAVE CLOUD) WILL BE DRAPED
ACROSS MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
AND RESULT IN OVERCAST SKIES PERSISTING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AS THE PV ANOMALY PIVOTING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AND GRADUALLY THIN THE OVERCAST SKIES, LIKELY
RETREATING BACK TO THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.
AS THE OVERCAST SKIES THIN, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-NOVEMBER AND PEAK IN THE 60S (LOW 60S NORTHEAST
TO UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST). THICK OVERCAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
SHOULD MITIGATE DEEPER MIXING UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON, AFTER WHICH
TIME WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO FREQUENT GUSTS 15-25 MPH.
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALSO FAVOR DEW POINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S AREAWIDE. MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURS AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE VERY DRY (20-30%) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FREQUENT GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE 25-30 MPH THRESHOLD FOR
INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT STIRRING BECOMING MOSTLY CALM OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT MAY BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON
OPAQUENESS OF CIRRUS CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND RESULTS IN MAINLY IN THE 30S AREAWIDE
(WARMEST IN URBAN AREAS). POCKETS OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE RURAL PIEDMONT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1250 PM WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY, NOT BRINGING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, BUT SHIFTING THE WIND FROM THE NORTHWEST
TO THE SOUTHWEST. THAT WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. THIS FRONT
SHOULD ALSO PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITHOUT PRECIPITATION, BUT WILL
DROP TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES. THE FORECAST
DIVERGES A BIT BY TUESDAY - WHILE THE GFS AND GEFS SHOW A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WITH PRECIPITATION, THE ECMWF AND EPS ARE MUCH SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT, KEEPING IT TO THE WEST OF THE STATE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRY WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S ON FRIDAY, RISING INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, THEN FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S EXCEPT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 650 PM WEDNESDAY...
24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A MARGINAL THREAT OF LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR FROM NOW THROUGH ABOUT 05-06Z AS A 35-40 KT WESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AT AROUND 2 KFT, MAINLY AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS
(RDU, FAY AND RWI). OTHERWISE, EXPECT SW SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT MORE
WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS, THEN CONTINUE
VEERING TO NW TOMORROW WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AFTER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING, A
DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT,
CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE LESSENING IN THE AFTERNOON.
LOOKING BEYOND 00Z FRIDAY: DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH MONDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...GREEN
AVIATION...DANCO
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