376
FXUS62 KRAH 130518
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1220 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE MID SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1220 AM THURSDAY...
* SOME CLOUDS TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING, BUT
DRY, BREEZY, AND SEASONABLE.
BROAD MID-UPPER TROUGHING OVER E NOAM WILL KEEP US IN A FAST MAINLY
NW FLOW ALOFT TODAY, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN GULF STATES AND EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS
HOLDS IN PLACE. PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL JET STREAK THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED
PERTURBATION ALOFT AND A POCKET OF BETTER UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE, IS
ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO DEVELOPMENT OF OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED HIGH
CLOUDS TO OUR N OVER VA, WITHIN A FAVORABLE VERTICAL MOISTURE AND
THERMAL PROFILE. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS
CLOUDINESS THICKENING AND SPREADING OVER OUR NORTHERN HALF, WITH A
PERIOD OF BKN-OVC SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THE CLOUDS
SHOULD THIN OUT A BIT BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS OUR NW MID LEVEL
FLOW RELAXES SLIGHTLY, ALTHOUGH PROJECTIONS OF ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE
MID LEVEL JET STREAK SWEEPING BY A LITTLE FURTHER N ACROSS PA/NJ
COULD BRING A RENEWAL OF MORE OPAQUE CLOUDS FOR A TIME LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ALL IN ALL, EXPECT FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
TODAY WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL,
FROM THE LOW 60S N TO AROUND 70 S. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NW MAY
GUST UP TO AROUND 20 MPH MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING AND MIXING. WITH DRY FINE FUELS IN PLACE AND A MIN RH DOWN
IN THE 20S% AREAWIDE, CONCERNS FOR ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR ARE NON-
ZERO, BUT WINDS SHOULD HOLD JUST UNDER THE THRESHOLD FOR SIGNIFICANT
CONCERN.
AFTER A FEW EVENING CLOUDS, SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A DRY
TRAJECTORY, A DEEPLY DRY AND STABLE COLUMN AND PW WELL BELOW NORMAL.
LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN THIS MORNING, 33-40 AS THE LOW
LEVELS DECOUPLE AND WINDS ABATE TOWARD NIGHTFALL. -GIH
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1250 PM WEDNESDAY...
TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1250 PM WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY, NOT BRINGING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, BUT SHIFTING THE WIND FROM THE NORTHWEST
TO THE SOUTHWEST. THAT WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. THIS FRONT
SHOULD ALSO PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITHOUT PRECIPITATION, BUT WILL
DROP TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES. THE FORECAST
DIVERGES A BIT BY TUESDAY - WHILE THE GFS AND GEFS SHOW A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WITH PRECIPITATION, THE ECMWF AND EPS ARE MUCH SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT, KEEPING IT TO THE WEST OF THE STATE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRY WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S ON FRIDAY, RISING INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, THEN FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S EXCEPT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1122 PM WEDNESDAY...
24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A MARGINAL THREAT OF LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR FROM NOW THROUGH ABOUT 08Z AS A 35-40 KT WESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AT AROUND 2 KFT, MAINLY AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS
(RDU, FAY AND RWI). OTHERWISE, EXPECT SW SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT MORE
WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS, THEN CONTINUE
VEERING TO NW TOMORROW WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN
FROM THE NORTH IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, CONTINUING INTO THIS MORNING
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH REDUCED GUSTS IN THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
LOOKING BEYOND: DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL
AT ALL SITES THROUGH MONDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...GREEN
AVIATION...DANCO/CA
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