788
FXUS62 KRAH 130636
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
136 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE MID SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1220 AM THURSDAY...
* SOME CLOUDS TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING, BUT
DRY, BREEZY, AND SEASONABLE.
BROAD MID-UPPER TROUGHING OVER E NOAM WILL KEEP US IN A FAST MAINLY
NW FLOW ALOFT TODAY, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN GULF STATES AND EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS
HOLDS IN PLACE. PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL JET STREAK THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED
PERTURBATION ALOFT AND A POCKET OF BETTER UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE, IS
ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO DEVELOPMENT OF OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED HIGH
CLOUDS TO OUR N OVER VA, WITHIN A FAVORABLE VERTICAL MOISTURE AND
THERMAL PROFILE. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS
CLOUDINESS THICKENING AND SPREADING OVER OUR NORTHERN HALF, WITH A
PERIOD OF BKN-OVC SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THE CLOUDS
SHOULD THIN OUT A BIT BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS OUR NW MID LEVEL
FLOW RELAXES SLIGHTLY, ALTHOUGH PROJECTIONS OF ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE
MID LEVEL JET STREAK SWEEPING BY A LITTLE FURTHER N ACROSS PA/NJ
COULD BRING A RENEWAL OF MORE OPAQUE CLOUDS FOR A TIME LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ALL IN ALL, EXPECT FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
TODAY WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL,
FROM THE LOW 60S N TO AROUND 70 S. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NW MAY
GUST UP TO AROUND 20 MPH MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING AND MIXING. WITH DRY FINE FUELS IN PLACE AND A MIN RH DOWN
IN THE 20S% AREAWIDE, CONCERNS FOR ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR ARE NON-
ZERO, BUT WINDS SHOULD HOLD JUST UNDER THE THRESHOLD FOR SIGNIFICANT
CONCERN.
AFTER A FEW EVENING CLOUDS, SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A DRY
TRAJECTORY, A DEEPLY DRY AND STABLE COLUMN AND PW WELL BELOW NORMAL.
LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN THIS MORNING, 33-40 AS THE LOW
LEVELS DECOUPLE AND WINDS ABATE TOWARD NIGHTFALL. -GIH
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1240 AM THURSDAY...
* CONTINUED DRY AND SEASONABLE, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TO OUR W AND SW, WHILE IN THE MID LEVELS,
WE'LL STAY IN A GENERALLY NW STEERING FLOW BUT WITH A SLIGHT VEER TO
NNW AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
WE SHOULD SEE LOTS OF SUNSHINE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON,
THEN AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER PW AND GREATER MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TRACKING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DIVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION, PROMPTING A TREND TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES STARTING IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NE HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN BE GENERALLY IN THE 60S. A MILDER NIGHT
COMPARED TO TONIGHT IS LIKELY FRI NIGHT, GIVEN THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS, BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE. EXPECT LOWS
FROM AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S. -GIH
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 135 AM THURSDAY...
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S SATURDAY TO THE THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S FOR SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL, IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HOWEVER, A DRY
COLD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZE CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY,
WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE, AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES, GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS HIGHS FALL BACK INTO THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
FOR MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE THE TRACK OF A
FAST MOVING S/W IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THEN THE ECMWF.
THE FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION WOULD SPREAD RAIN BACK INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS THE
SYSTEM A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY,
LARGELY KEEPING CENTRAL NC DRY. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH. BEHIND THE FAST MOVING
S/W DISTURBANCE, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MID/LATE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1122 PM WEDNESDAY...
24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A MARGINAL THREAT OF LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR FROM NOW THROUGH ABOUT 08Z AS A 35-40 KT WESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AT AROUND 2 KFT, MAINLY AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS
(RDU, FAY AND RWI). OTHERWISE, EXPECT SW SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT MORE
WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS, THEN CONTINUE
VEERING TO NW TOMORROW WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN
FROM THE NORTH IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, CONTINUING INTO THIS MORNING
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH REDUCED GUSTS IN THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
LOOKING BEYOND: DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL
AT ALL SITES THROUGH MONDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...DANCO/CA
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