920
FXUS62 KRAH 181142
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
640 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEDGE FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA TODAY AND TONIGHT,
THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE QUICKLY
EASTWARD AND ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
* INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH
RAINFALL OF 0.25-0.50".
* WINDS GUSTS OF 25-35MPH THIS EVENING, WITH SOME SPORADIC GUSTS
TO 40MPH POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
* LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AROUND THE TRIAD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
AT 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF NC
EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTH EAST US. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
US IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THERE ARE
EVEN A FEW LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NORTH WEST NC ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT
WAVES, WITH A SHIELD OF RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE INITIALLY EXPECTED
TO BREAK OUT ACROSS GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND MOVE
NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY LATE MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. A MORE ROBUST AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP THIS
EVENING WITH INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH,
FOLLOWED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT MORE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 0.25 - 0.75 INCH RANGE, WITH THE LOCALLY HIGHEST RAIN
RATES BETWEEN 00-06Z BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST TO
UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH WEST WHERE A STRONG WEDGE FRONT WILL
DEVELOP. THE CURRENT FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY ON MET GUIDANCE,
WHICH IS MUCH MORE RELIABLE IN CAD PATTERNS. ON THE COOLER
WESTERN SIDE OF THE WEDGE FRONT, LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE
BY THIS EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS FORSYTH COUNTY, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THAT FOG WILL COVER THE ENTIRE TRIAD AREA
IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN.
THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS, WHICH WILL
INITIALLY BE FOCUSED ALOFT WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET,
BUT WILL GRADUALLY MIX TO THE SURFACE AS DEW POINTS INCREASE
TONIGHT. GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN A 20-30MPH RANGE WITH
SOME SPORADIC GUSTS TO 35MPH OR EVEN 40MPH IN ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND ESPECIALLY WITH THOSE ALONG THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS GENERALLY LOW AS OVERALL INSTABILITY
LOOKS VERY LIMITED AND FOCUSED ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-95 WHERE
PERHAPS MLCAPE OF 100– 200 COULD MATERIALIZE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
POTENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC
ON FRIDAY MORNING, ENDING IN LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS. THE MAIN
WEATHER IMPACTS ON FRIDAY WILL COME FROM WINDY CONDITIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT (POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS TOO). WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT, WITH WIND GUST UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE, WITH EVEN A
FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO THE MID
60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC (WITH SOME
LOCATIONS NOT SEEING MUCH OF A DIURNAL RECOVERY, RATHER HOLDING
STEADY IN THE AFTERNOON OR FALLING).
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS COUPLED WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS
TO DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30
BY SATURDAY MORNING, UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA AND OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW. EXPECT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNDER A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S, WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1140 PM WEDNESDAY...
* DRY (MOSTLY), WITH UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS SUN AND WED THAT
WILL BOOKEND A COUPLE OF DAYS OF UNSEASONABLY COOL ONES MON-TUE
AN AMPLIFIED BUT MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
FROM THE LWR GREAT LAKES TO ATLANTIC CANADA SUN-SUN NIGHT. A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WNWLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW AND PREVAIL AROUND A SUB-
TROPICAL HIGH AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE THAT WILL PROGRESS FROM BAJA
CA TO THE NRN GULF AND GULF COAST STATES THROUGH MID-WEEK. WITHIN
THAT REGIME, A MID-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE AND BAND OF WAA AND LIFT WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON TUE.
AT THE SURFACE, CNTL NC ON SUN WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN A COUPLE OF
FRONTAL ZONES THAT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/MIDDLE
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST, RESPECTIVELY, WITH THE FORMER A MOISTURE-
STARVED ONE THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTH AND ACROSS CNTL NC LATE SUN
INTO EARLY SUN NIGHT. FOLLOWING, CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH PRESSURE,
STRONG AND NEAR 1040 MB OVER OH/WV AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, WILL
WEAKEN WHILE BUILDING ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC
MON-TUE, THEN SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON WED. THE PRESENCE AND
INFLUENCE OF THE CP HIGH AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR WILL FAVOR BOTH
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS, WITH THE
EXCEPTION TO THE LATTER BEING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES
ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL WAA REGIME AND CEILINGS
OVER THE FAR NRN NC PIEDMONT ON TUE. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL FAVOR MODERATING/MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 640 AM THURSDAY..
VFR TO CONTINUE AT GSO/INT THROUGH 15-18Z AND RDU/FAY/RWI THROUGH
AROUND 18-21Z
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS INCREASING FROM CLT TO GSO/INT THIS MORNING BY 15-18Z, WITH
CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON WIDESPREAD RAIN SETS IN
SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION, FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND COULD
BECOME DENSE AROUND INT AND GSO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TO THE EAST, THE LOWERING OF CEILINGS WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED
BY A TREND TOWARDS IFR TONIGHT BY AROUND 00Z.
THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING STRONG WINDS, INITIALLY ALOFT IN THE FORM
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS EVENING, BUT WITH TIME WE EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT TO MORE FREQUENTLY REACH THE
SURFACE, AND MORE ISOLATED 30KT TO 35KT GUSTS WILL POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
AT KRDU/KRWI. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BLS
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