894
FXUS62 KRAH 181854
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
152 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEDGE FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA TODAY AND TONIGHT,
THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE QUICKLY
EASTWARD AND ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
* INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH
RAINFALL OF 0.25-0.50".
* WINDS GUSTS OF 25-35MPH THIS EVENING, WITH SOME SPORADIC GUSTS
TO 40MPH POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
* LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AROUND THE TRIAD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
AT 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF NC
EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTH EAST US. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
US IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THERE ARE
EVEN A FEW LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NORTH WEST NC ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT
WAVES, WITH A SHIELD OF RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE INITIALLY EXPECTED
TO BREAK OUT ACROSS GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND MOVE
NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY LATE MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. A MORE ROBUST AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP THIS
EVENING WITH INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH,
FOLLOWED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT MORE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 0.25 - 0.75 INCH RANGE, WITH THE LOCALLY HIGHEST RAIN
RATES BETWEEN 00-06Z BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST TO
UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH WEST WHERE A STRONG WEDGE FRONT WILL
DEVELOP. THE CURRENT FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY ON MET GUIDANCE,
WHICH IS MUCH MORE RELIABLE IN CAD PATTERNS. ON THE COOLER
WESTERN SIDE OF THE WEDGE FRONT, LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE
BY THIS EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS FORSYTH COUNTY, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THAT FOG WILL COVER THE ENTIRE TRIAD AREA
IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN.
THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS, WHICH WILL
INITIALLY BE FOCUSED ALOFT WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET,
BUT WILL GRADUALLY MIX TO THE SURFACE AS DEW POINTS INCREASE
TONIGHT. GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN A 20-30MPH RANGE WITH
SOME SPORADIC GUSTS TO 35MPH OR EVEN 40MPH IN ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND ESPECIALLY WITH THOSE ALONG THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS GENERALLY LOW AS OVERALL INSTABILITY
LOOKS VERY LIMITED AND FOCUSED ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-95 WHERE
PERHAPS MLCAPE OF 100– 200 COULD MATERIALIZE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 152 PM THURSDAY...
BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD GENERALLY BE ORIENTED NORTH
TO SOUTH SOMEWHERE ALONG THE US-1 CORRIDOR WITH THE PARENT LOW UP IN
CANADA, WITH THE FRONT RACING OFFSHORE. WHILE MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AT SUNRISE, ALL
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS
COULD REACH AS HIGH AS ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE MORNING,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS, BALANCING OUT THE COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THE WARMING THAT WILL OCCUR AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY.
THOSE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE TRIAD TO THE MID 60S
IN THE SOUTHEAST. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING, DROPPING TO 15 TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE WEATHER WILL BE TRANQUIL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM TENNESSEE OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND THEN
OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SATURDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. FRIDAY NIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S,
WITH VALUES ABOUT FIVE DEGREES WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 152 PM THURSDAY...
* RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED
LARGELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PART
OF THE FORECAST. WE WARMUP TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND SOME 4 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO SOME LOW 60S. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO
THE AREA ON MON. THIS WILL DROP OUR HIGHS BACK BELOW NORMAL BRIEFLY
ON MON IN THE 40S AND LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 20S.
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO BE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE TUE THROUGH THU
FROM THE 50S BACK INTO THE 60S. THERE IS A BIT MORE FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO WHETHER A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING. THE CURRENT GFS AND PRIOR ECMWF SHOWED
THIS. IF THAT WERE THE CASE, HIGHS COULD BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN OUR
CURRENTLY FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 60S ON CHRISTMAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED ARE LARGELY MINOR AT THIS
STAGE. SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE HINTING
AT A FEW RAIN CHANCES WITH A WARM/COLD FRONT TUE/WED, BUT MOST
GUIDANCE IS DRY. WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT BUT FOR NOW THE
FORECAST IS FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 110 PM THURSDAY...
AS OF THE 1 PM OBSERVATIONS, MOST TAF SITES ARE STILL VFR, WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST EXPERIENCING PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES FROM LIGHT RAIN OR MIST. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP AS LIGHT RAIN STARTS TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. CEILINGS
STILL LOOK TO DROP TO IFR IN THE TRIAD THIS AFTERNOON, COMPLETELY
OVERSPREADING CENTRAL NC BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA ALSO LOOK TO DROP TO LIFR BY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS WELL. CEILINGS LOOK TO RETURN TO VFR QUICKLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY, LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT, BRINGING FURTHER VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS, AS WELL AS AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. IN TERMS OF WINDS, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO VEER TO WESTERLY AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO AROUND 25-30KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KTS
POSSIBLE. BEFORE ANY GUSTS OCCUR, A PERIOD OF LLWS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER
THE REGION.
OUTLOOK: AFTER RETURNING TO VFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY MORNING, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...GREEN
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...LH
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