471
FXUS62 KRAH 190555
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1255 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A QUASI-STATIONARY, WEDGE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE
QUICKLY EASTWARD AND ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 222 PM THURSDAY...
* A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
OVERNIGHT, WITH GENERALLY AROUND 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
* WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE INCREASES
AND THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
REMAINS LOW, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BY FRIDAY MORNING, RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK
TO BE GENERALLY ABOUT 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACCORDING TO THE MEAN OF THE 12Z
HREF. HOWEVER, THE HREF LPMM IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME ISOLATED
LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE ABOUT 1.5 INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN BY SUNRISE
WHERE A STRONGER SHOWER PASSES OVER. WHILE MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE
OUT BY SUNRISE, A BROKEN BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT, A LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE REGION. STRONGER WINDS FROM THE JET ARE EXPECTED TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE, ALLOWING WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z HREF ALONG WITH POINT
SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER GUSTS,
WITH SOME 40 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE.
THERE HAS BEEN A LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AS CAD
HAS DEVELOPED IN THE TRIAD, WITH CURRENT 2 PM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 40S TO 50 IN THE TRIAD TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER,
AROUND 50 IN THE TRIAD TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST. A NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THUS,
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 AM FRIDAY...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S, ALL ABOVE FREEZING WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1045 PM THURSDAY...
* SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS, TO UNSEASONABLY SO BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD, WILL BE BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY COOLER THAN AVERAGE ONES ON
MON.
* JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TUE-TUE NIGHT
AN AMPLIFIED BUT MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
FROM SRN QC AND THE LWR GREAT LAKES SUN TO ATLANTIC CANADA SUN
NIGHT. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WNWLY TO NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FOLLOW
AND PREVAIL OVER CNTL NC, AROUND A SUB-TROPICAL HIGH AND RIDGE THAT
WILL PROGRESS FROM BAJA CA TO THE NRN GULF AND GULF COAST STATES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WITHIN THAT WNWLY FLOW REGIME, A MID-LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE AND BAND OF WAA AND LIFT, WITH ASSOCIATED SATURATION
CENTERED AROUND 700 MB, WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
MIDDLE ATLANTIC TUE-TUE NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE, CNTL NC ON SUN WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN A COUPLE OF
MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL ZONES THAT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY/MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST, RESPECTIVELY, WITH THE FORMER
LIKELY TO MOVE SOUTH AND ACROSS CNTL NC LATE SUN INTO EARLY SUN
NIGHT. FOLLOWING, CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH PRESSURE, STRONG AND NEAR
1040 MB OVER OH/WV AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, WILL WEAKEN WHILE
BUILDING ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC MON-MON NIGHT.
IN RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH, A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND
RETREAT BRIEFLY NWD AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS NC TUE-TUE NIGHT, THEN
BECOME STRENGTHENED ACROSS THE SAVANNAH BASIN ON WED, AS ANOTHER
WEAKER HIGH BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND DIRECTS
EQUALLY BRIEFLY NLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS CNTL NC. MILD-WARM SWLY
FLOW WILL THEN ENVELOP MUCH OF THE SRN AND ERN US THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
THE EXCEPTION TO DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL WAA REGIME, POSSIBLY
AUGMENTED BY LOWER-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE PIEDMONT, TUE-TUE
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE, PROBABLY TRENDING
WELL ABOVE BY CHRISTMAS, WITH BRIEFLY BELOW AVERAGE AND COLDER ONES
WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CP HIGH SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 811 PM THURSDAY...
LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING. THUS FAR, HOWEVER, SUB-VFR CONDITIONS HAVE
ONLY DEVELOPED AT KINT/KGSO WHERE MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
HAVE PERSISTED THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO
SUB-VFR AT EASTERN TAF SITES BY THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS PERSISTING AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. IT APPEARS THE DENSE FOG SHOULD LARGELY STAY WEST OF OUR
AREA MAINLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS, BUT PERIODS OF LIFR FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE AT KINT/KGSO INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WHILE SOME SFC
SSELY GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, THE
LOW-LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SFC WILL STRENGTHEN TO 45 TO 55 KTS
PROMOTING PERIODS OF LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING.
THIS EVENINGS PRE-FRONTAL LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN WILL MOSTLY LIFT
NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE FRIDAY, A THIN LINE OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. PRE- AND POST-FRONTAL SFC GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 11-12Z, AND PERSIST THROUGH ~22Z. BRIEF
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED GUSTS OF UP TO 40 KTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE THIN
LINE OF SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THEIR PASSAGE.
GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ANY LINGERING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD LIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...LH
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...LUCHETTI
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