156
FXUS62 KRAH 190720
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
220 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL SETTLE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 220 AM FRIDAY...
* WIND GUSTS OF 30-40MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. A LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THIS MORNING MAY
RESULT IN SOME WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45MPH.
A STRONG, NEGATIVELY TILED TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TODAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND ROBUST LINE OF
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NC. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, WARM ADVECTION AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ARE FORCING LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING.
WIND GUSTS ARE INCREASING BENEATH A 50-60KT LLJ AS A WEDGE FRONT HAS
MIXED NORTH OF THE AREA.
THE AREA ONGOING RAIN WILL DEPART THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN BY
AROUND 5AM, WITH A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS
SWEEP ACROSS S THE AREA BETWEEN 7-10AM. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY,
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE FRONTAL SHOWERS, BUT
INCREASED MIXING AND POST FRONTAL COLD-ADVECTION SHOULD STILL
SUPPORT WIND GUSTS TO 40MPH OR PERHAPS GREATER IN SPOTS THROUGH MID-
MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT
AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT CURRENTLY HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S, BUT TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD
STEADY OR BEGIN TO FALL BY MIDDAY AS COLD ADVECTION SETS IN. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 AM FRIDAY...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S, ALL ABOVE FREEZING WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1045 PM THURSDAY...
* SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS, TO UNSEASONABLY SO BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD, WILL BE BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY COOLER THAN AVERAGE ONES ON
MON.
* JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TUE-TUE NIGHT
AN AMPLIFIED BUT MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
FROM SRN QC AND THE LWR GREAT LAKES SUN TO ATLANTIC CANADA SUN
NIGHT. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WNWLY TO NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FOLLOW
AND PREVAIL OVER CNTL NC, AROUND A SUB-TROPICAL HIGH AND RIDGE THAT
WILL PROGRESS FROM BAJA CA TO THE NRN GULF AND GULF COAST STATES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WITHIN THAT WNWLY FLOW REGIME, A MID-LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE AND BAND OF WAA AND LIFT, WITH ASSOCIATED SATURATION
CENTERED AROUND 700 MB, WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
MIDDLE ATLANTIC TUE-TUE NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE, CNTL NC ON SUN WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN A COUPLE OF
MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL ZONES THAT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY/MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST, RESPECTIVELY, WITH THE FORMER
LIKELY TO MOVE SOUTH AND ACROSS CNTL NC LATE SUN INTO EARLY SUN
NIGHT. FOLLOWING, CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH PRESSURE, STRONG AND NEAR
1040 MB OVER OH/WV AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, WILL WEAKEN WHILE
BUILDING ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC MON-MON NIGHT.
IN RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH, A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND
RETREAT BRIEFLY NWD AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS NC TUE-TUE NIGHT, THEN
BECOME STRENGTHENED ACROSS THE SAVANNAH BASIN ON WED, AS ANOTHER
WEAKER HIGH BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND DIRECTS
EQUALLY BRIEFLY NLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS CNTL NC. MILD-WARM SWLY
FLOW WILL THEN ENVELOP MUCH OF THE SRN AND ERN US THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
THE EXCEPTION TO DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL WAA REGIME, POSSIBLY
AUGMENTED BY LOWER-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE PIEDMONT, TUE-TUE
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE, PROBABLY TRENDING
WELL ABOVE BY CHRISTMAS, WITH BRIEFLY BELOW AVERAGE AND COLDER ONES
WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CP HIGH SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 100 AM FRIDAY...
LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS HAVE SLOWLY BEGUN TO
GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT, AND THIS UPWARD TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE
FRONT NEARS THE MOUNTAINS. ONGOING RAIN MOVING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
AND IS EXPECTED TO EXIT CENTRAL NC BY AROUND 09Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER AND WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR 30KT, PERHAPS
HIGHER IN SOME ISOLATED SPOTS, ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 12–15 Z. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND BRING A RETURN TO VFR,
BUT A STRONG WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT WITH WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 30 KT AND POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 40
KT. CONFIDENCE IN THESE HIGHER GUSTS IS HIGHEST AT GSO AND INT.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BLS
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