240
FXUS62 KRAH 191743
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1240 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILD OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE
OF COLDER HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1240 PM FRIDAY...
* FREQUENT GUSTINESS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH, STRONG H5 HEIGHT RISES ON THE
ORDER OF 90-120 METERS AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, BEHIND THE EXITING COLD
FRONT, A TRANSIENT PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL BUILD EASTWARD, BRIEFLY BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.
COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
FREQUENT W-NWLY GUSTINESS OF 20-30 MPH WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET,
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA; HOWEVER, CLOUD
COVERAGE APPEARS TOO BRIEF AND THIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS A RESULT, LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM FRIDAY...
* NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND QUIET WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND CONTINUE TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER CALM AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1240 PM FRIDAY...
* SEASONABLY MILD, PERHAPS TRENDING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY CHRISTMAS
OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON, MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
PERIOD ARE FAVORED TO BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUN NIGHT, WITH COLD
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION MON INTO EARLY TUE. HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 SUN WILL TREND COOLER IN THE MID/UPPER 40S
MON AND MID/UPPER 20S SUN AND MON NIGHTS.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION TUE AND SOME WAA AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ATOP THE BOUNDARY COULD FAVOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TUE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW, RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR
LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING TO PREVENT ANY
PTYPE ISSUES.
A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS LOOK TO TRAVERSE TO THE NORTH OF US, BUT
WE CURRENTLY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE DRY WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH ON WED, BUT A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES HOLD FOR CHRISTMAS
AND THROUGH FRI. HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO REACH THE MID TO
PERHAPS UPPER 60S ON CHRISTMAS AND NEAR 70 ON FRI. THESE VALUES
WOULD BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THESE VALUES ARE STILL
BELOW RECORD HIGH VALUES OF 74 AND 81 SET IN 2015 FOR GSO AND FAY,
AND 75 AT RDU (SET IN 1955).
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1240 PM FRIDAY...
STRONG WEST-NORHTWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20KTS AND FREQUENT
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS, OCCASIONAL GUSTING TO 30-35 KTS. THESE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL MECHANICAL TURBULENCE AND STRONG
CROSSWINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. OTHERWISE, DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
WILL SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...HELOCK
LONG TERM...KREN
AVIATION...CBL
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