478
FXUS62 KRAH 200523
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1220 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILD OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE
OF COLDER HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1240 PM FRIDAY...
* FREQUENT GUSTINESS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH, STRONG H5 HEIGHT RISES ON THE
ORDER OF 90-120 METERS AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, BEHIND THE EXITING COLD
FRONT, A TRANSIENT PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL BUILD EASTWARD, BRIEFLY BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.
COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
FREQUENT W-NWLY GUSTINESS OF 20-30 MPH WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET,
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA; HOWEVER, CLOUD
COVERAGE APPEARS TOO BRIEF AND THIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS A RESULT, LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM FRIDAY...
* NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND QUIET WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND CONTINUE TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER CALM AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1220 AM SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON
MONDAY, PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WAA
REGIME MAY RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SAG SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA, WHILE AREAS FARTHER SOUTHWEST REMAIN IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY.
BY CHRISTMAS DAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE,
ALLOWING WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW TO REESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AS HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S, ROUGHLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50. THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY UNDER PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1240 PM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT SFC FLOW THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...HELOCK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...LUCHETTI
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