511
FXUS62 KRAH 201805
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
100 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...
*QUIET BUT MILDER TONIGHT
BENEATH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A MOISTURE
STARVED COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS
MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT, MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...
* A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING, BRINGING COOL, DRY AIR TO THE REGION.
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AS THERE WILL BE A LACK OF
MOISTURE. THUS, ONLY EXPECT A PERIOD OF INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, THE FRONT WILL BRING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR, DROPPING
THE LOWS BACK BELOW NORMAL. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE BELOW
FREEZING EVERYWHERE, WITH MID/UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOW 30S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...
* BRIEFLY COOL MON, THEN SEASONABLY MILD, TRENDING WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE LATE IN THE WEEK
* NEAR-RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS
COLD HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE WORK WEEK WITH BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. THAT COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. THE FRONT WILL FAVOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TIED TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WAA WITH A SYSTEM ACROSS OUR NORTH. THE BEST
CHANCE IS ACROSS THE NORTH, MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF US-64. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, IF ANY. WE TURN WARMER TUE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES DOWN WED WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT, BUT THE
AIRMASS DOES NOT COOL OFF MUCH TO KEEP HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 50S NE TO MID 60S SW.
A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER MS VALLEY REGION WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
STARTING CHRISTMAS DAY AND CONTINUING POTENTIALLY INTO SAT AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS IN FULL SWING. THE WARMEST DAY CURRENTLY LOOKS
LIKE FRI, WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH THE LOWER 70S. NEAR-RECORD HIGHS
ARE POSSIBLE FRI (SEE CLIMATE SECTION OF AFD). THIS PATTERN MAY
CONTINUE INTO SAT, BUT SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS A FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
EITHER WAY, IT SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SAT.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...
DRY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. A DRY COLD COLD WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z SUNDAY,
WITH POST-FRONTAL WINDS INCREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AT
8 TO 12 KTS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK. A WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...HELOCK
LONG TERM...KREN
AVIATION...CBL
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