783
FXUS62 KRAH 220623
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
123 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE SOUTHERN
MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN TO NEAR BERMUDA ON TUESDAY. ON
ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY, A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND RETREAT NORTH
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE BRIEFLY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SAVANNAH BASIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WHEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...
* A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THE AREA WITH CHILLY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING DRY COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE PASSING TROUGH WILL
ADVECT A BAND OF OROGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED CIRRUS, CURRENTLY BANKED
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, A BRIEF
PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL GUSTINESS OF 15 TO 20 MPH CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, WITH CLEARING PROGRESSING FROM NW TO SE.
CAA WILL SUPPORT CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 20S
NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...
* COOL AND DRY MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES MONDAY
NIGHT AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO RETURN.
A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT SKIRTS NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE
THE ONE CHILLY DAY IN THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WORK WEEK. CIRRUS WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING BROKEN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY SUNSET. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER
40S NORTHEAST TO LOWER/MID 50S SOUTH.
MONDAY NIGHT, WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST AIR
REGIME, WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANDING DECK OF STRATUS AND ALTOSTRATUS
BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z. EXPECT TO A GOOD BIT OF VIRGA STREAMING ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH-NORTH EAST OF THE TRIANGLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE NIGHT, BEFORE THE CLOUD DECK ARRIVES, WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING THROUGH DAYBREAK. PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE RAIN WITH NO WINTER PRECIP-TYPE CONCERNS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 35 TO 40, WITH A FEW LOWER 30S POSSIBLE IN
OUTLYING RURAL AREAS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...
* AN OVERALL DRY WEEK WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUE. MOST OF THE ENERGY
TIED TO THE SYSTEM FOCUSES UP ACROSS VA, BUT ENOUGH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WILL PROMOTE A
LOW-END CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES, MAINLY ACROSS US-64
NORTH. A LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS, HOWEVER, INDICATE THAT A VERY
DRY LAYER EXISTS BELOW 850-MB, SUCH THAT MOST OF THE AREA MAY JUST
SEE VIRGA. CLOUDS IN THE MORNING WILL CLEAR OUT BY LATE-AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
A STRETCH OF VERY MILD TEMPERATURES IS STILL FORECAST WED THROUGH
FRI, INCLUDING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY, WHERE WARM RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY WILL BRING WAA INTO THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME. SPRINKLED IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A FEW SYSTEMS
PASSING THROUGH, NAMELY A BACKDOOR FRONT WED THAT LIFTS NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT THU. MOST OF THE ENERGY ON THU STAYS TO OUR NORTH SUCH
THAT WE ARE AGAIN DRY. OTHER THAN CLOUDS, THESE SYSTEMS WON'T IMPACT
OUR ABILITY TO RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S WED/THU AND LOW TO MAYBE
MID 70S FRI.
MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASES LATE FRI INTO SUN WITH ANOTHER
POSSIBLE COLD FRONT. SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS A STRONG FRONT THROUGH FRI
NIGHT, WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE STALLS IT OFF TO OUR NORTH BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUN. ALL THIS IS TO SAY THAT HIGHS
SAT/SUN ARE MORE TRICKY. HIGHS COULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE
MID 70S SAT DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL VERIFIES. IF THIS VERIFIES ON
THE HIGHER END, WE COULD GET A FEW DEGREES CLOSE OF RECORD HIGHS
FRI/SAT, SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THAT. WHILE A FEW SHOWER CHANCES
ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRI AND SUN WITH THESE SYSTEMS, THE PATTERN IS
PRESENTLY NOT TOO FAVORABLE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 120 AM MONDAY...
CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED VERY DRY AIR WILL
FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS IN CNTL NC THROUGH 06Z TUE AND MAINLY LIGHT AND
VEERING WINDS FROM NLY THIS MORNING TO ELY OR SELY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION TO THOSE LIGHT AND VEERING/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE A
SHORT PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER NELY AND GUSTY ONES INTO THE TEENS
KTS WITH HEATING/MIXING AND INITIAL DEEPENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BETWEEN 13-16Z AT RWI AND FAY.
OUTLOOK: SWLY RETURN FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN AROUND
THE HIGH AS IT DRIFTS TO NEAR BERMUDA ON TUE, WHICH WILL PROMOTE
CHANCES ON TUE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER THE PIEDMONT IN THE
MORNING, MVFR RANGE CLOUD BASES AND POSSIBLE CEILINGS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, AND GUSTY SWLY WINDS INTO THE 20S KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN FROM VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
4-6 THOUSAND FT MAY ALSO RESULT FROM MID-LEVEL LIFT THAT WILL
CONCURRENTLY OVERSPREAD NC. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
EARLY THU, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KREN
AVIATION...MWS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page