506
FXUS62 KRAH 220730
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
229 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE SOUTHERN
MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN TO NEAR BERMUDA ON TUESDAY. ON
ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY, A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND RETREAT NORTH
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE BRIEFLY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SAVANNAH BASIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WHEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...
* A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THE AREA WITH CHILLY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING DRY COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE PASSING TROUGH WILL
ADVECT A BAND OF OROGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED CIRRUS, CURRENTLY BANKED
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, A BRIEF
PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL GUSTINESS OF 15 TO 20 MPH CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, WITH CLEARING PROGRESSING FROM NW TO SE.
CAA WILL SUPPORT CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 20S
NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...
* COOL AND DRY MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES MONDAY
NIGHT AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO RETURN.
A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT SKIRTS NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE
THE ONE CHILLY DAY IN THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WORK WEEK. CIRRUS WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING BROKEN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY SUNSET. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER
40S NORTHEAST TO LOWER/MID 50S SOUTH.
MONDAY NIGHT, WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST AIR
REGIME, WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANDING DECK OF STRATUS AND ALTOSTRATUS
BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z. EXPECT TO A GOOD BIT OF VIRGA STREAMING ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH-NORTH EAST OF THE TRIANGLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE NIGHT, BEFORE THE CLOUD DECK ARRIVES, WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING THROUGH DAYBREAK. PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE RAIN WITH NO WINTER PRECIP-TYPE CONCERNS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 35 TO 40, WITH A FEW LOWER 30S POSSIBLE IN
OUTLYING RURAL AREAS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 229 AM MONDAY...
UPPER PATTERN: AN ANOMALOUS MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER THE CENTRAL US THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK GENERATING PRIMARILY
WNWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC. THE RIDGE WILL DE-AMPLIFY LATE
THURSDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. A POTENTIALLY DEEPER LONG-WAVE TROUGH MAY PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE US SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
EXTEND GENERALLY ENELY TURNING ESELY FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AS SUCH RADIATIVE COOLING WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE MID
30S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH LOWER 40S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY PROMOTING SSWLY RETURN FLOW
AND TEMPERATURES SOARING WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS
THURSDAY EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: PERSISTENT SSWLY FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES SOAR TO ~20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER TO MID
70S. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TRAVERSES THE OHIO VALLEY,
MARGINAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC. THE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE APPEARS
TO STAY TO OUR NORTH, SO AS OF NOW DECIDED TO MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. HOWEVER, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LIGHT RAIN TRICKLES
ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
GUSTS OF UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
IN WAKE OF THE PASSING SHORT-WAVE WE'LL SEE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ON
SATURDAY WITH A BIT COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. BY SUNDAY,
MODELS ARE IN A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW TO HANDLE A POTENTIAL
DEEPER LONG-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. THE ECMWF IS
MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS AND THUS PROVIDES A WETTER SOLUTION
(EPS VS. GEFS PAINTS A SIMILAR SPLIT). WE'LL CONTINUE TO WATCH HOW
THE GUIDANCE UNFOLDS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT FOR NOW KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. A POST-
FRONTAL COOL DOWN THEN LOOKS POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 120 AM MONDAY...
CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED VERY DRY AIR WILL
FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS IN CNTL NC THROUGH 06Z TUE AND MAINLY LIGHT AND
VEERING WINDS FROM NLY THIS MORNING TO ELY OR SELY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION TO THOSE LIGHT AND VEERING/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE A
SHORT PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER NELY AND GUSTY ONES INTO THE TEENS
KTS WITH HEATING/MIXING AND INITIAL DEEPENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BETWEEN 13-16Z AT RWI AND FAY.
OUTLOOK: SWLY RETURN FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN AROUND
THE HIGH AS IT DRIFTS TO NEAR BERMUDA ON TUE, WHICH WILL PROMOTE
CHANCES ON TUE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER THE PIEDMONT IN THE
MORNING, MVFR RANGE CLOUD BASES AND POSSIBLE CEILINGS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, AND GUSTY SWLY WINDS INTO THE 20S KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN FROM VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
4-6 THOUSAND FT MAY ALSO RESULT FROM MID-LEVEL LIFT THAT WILL
CONCURRENTLY OVERSPREAD NC. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
EARLY THU, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...LUCHETTI
AVIATION...MWS
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