522
FXUS62 KRAH 221756
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1255 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN TO NEAR BERMUDA ON
TUESDAY. ON ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY, A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND
RETREAT NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN
SETTLE BRIEFLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE SAVANNAH BASIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE NRN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND, 00Z-OBSERVED, 500 MB HEIGHT RISES OF 50-
100 METERS OVER THE MID AND UPR MS VALLEY LAST EVENING WILL PROGRESS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TODAY, THEN OFFSHORE TONIGHT. STRONG AND
TROPOSPHERIC-DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT AND MAXIMIZE OVER CNTL NC
EARLY TODAY. A SUB-TROPICAL HIGH SPANNING FROM NRN MX TO THE NRN
GULF WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN IN PLACE AND DIRECT NWLY TO WNWLY MID/UPR-
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST, ATOP
STRENGTHENING SWLY TO WSWLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS.
ASSOCIATED, STRENGTHENING AND STRONGLY-VEERING WIND PROFILES AND
WAA, AND QG-FORCING FOR ASCENT, WILL RESULT AND PROGRESS ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC, WITH GLANCING INFLUENCE OVER CNTL NC
TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE, 1035 MB, CP HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER WV WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC, WITH
ASSOCIATED MAINLY LIGHT AND VEERING WINDS FROM NLY/NELY THIS MORNING
TO ELY/SELY THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENT, AND CLEAR MOST OF MONDAY, A BAND
OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL CEILINGS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. IT
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY 700 MB-CENTERED LIFT AND SATURATION, AND
ASSOCIATED ALTOCUMULUS THAT MAY INCLUDE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES, AFTER 06Z TUE. IT WILL OTHERWISE BE SEASONABLE AND A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S,
THEN A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE AND MOSTLY IN THE LWR-MID 30S TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...
A RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY NWD AND THROUGH THE PLAINS, FROM A SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH THAT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE NRN GULF. A DOWNSTREAM AND
UNDERLYING LOW-MID-LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL OTHERWISE PROGRESS ACROSS
AND OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY EWD ACROSS
BERMUDA, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS AND
OFFSHORE SRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC. IN
STRENGTHENING SWLY TO WSWLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO, A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP AND RETREAT RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VA ON TUE,
WITH ASSOCIATED SWLY SURFACE WINDS THAT WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TRAILING THE FAST-MOVING AND DEEPENING LOW, A
COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD ACROSS VA TUE NIGHT.
MULTI-LAYERED, 925 MB AND 700 MB-CENTERED OVERCAST EARLY TUE, AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES, WILL MOVE EWD AND OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, WITH ASSOCIATED WEST TO EAST (PARTIAL) CLEARING OVER
CNTL NC. AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON-
EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER SRN NC, HOWEVER, UNTIL WINDS IN THAT LAYER
(BETWEEN 850-925 MB) VEER TO A MORE NLY COMPONENT AND DIRECT DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO CNTL NC THROUGH WED MORNING, WITH
CLEARING. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND INTO THE
UPR 50S TO LWR 60S ON TUE, FOLLOWED BY LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1255 PM MONDAY...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH LATE WEEK, YIELDING PRIMARILY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY LATE THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A POTENTIALLY DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE U.S. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
AND EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN
GENERALLY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE-NORMAL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S, WITH A
FEW WARMER AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH POTENTIALLY REACHING 70DEGREES.
THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
ALLOWING FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING—ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
MID 30S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NC, WITH LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.
ON THURSDAY, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTHEAST, IT WILL HAVE SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO TAP INTO
THAT COULD INITIATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PIEDMONT NEAR THE VA AND NC BORDER. WHILE YOU WOULD
HOPE FOR SOME FLURRIES ON CHRISTMAS DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
MORNING CLOUD COVER GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE FAR SOUTH.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 15–20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. AS THE SURFACE LOW JETS
OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY, A SHORT PERIOD
OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE, AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER THE
STRONGEST FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE APPEAR TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA, SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR NOW.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHIFTING OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY AND WARM. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50. MODELS
DIVERGE A BIT ON SUNDAY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF A DEEPER LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CONUS. THE ECMWF IS NOTABLY STRONGER AND WETTER
THAN THE GFS, WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING A SIMILAR PATTERN.
GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY, KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS
FOR SUNDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY THEN
CLEARING OUT BY MONDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE PATTERN
CLOSELY AS IT TREKS ACROSS THE US LATE THIS WEEK. ALL MODELS DO
HOWEVER SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING DRY AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 650 AM MONDAY...
INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH PRESSURE (AND ASSOCIATED VERY
DRY AIR) THAT WILL MIGRATE ACROSS AND OFFSHORE NC WILL FAVOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z TUE, ALONG WITH MAINLY LIGHT AND VEERING
WINDS FROM NELY THIS MORNING TO ELY/SELY THIS AFTERNOON AND SLY/SWLY
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THOSE LIGHT AND VEERING/VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER NELY AND GUSTY ONES INTO
THE TEENS KTS WITH HEATING/MIXING AND THE INITIAL DEEPENING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BETWEEN 13-16Z AT RWI AND FAY.
OUTLOOK: SWLY RETURN FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN AROUND
THE HIGH AS IT DRIFTS TO NEAR BERMUDA ON TUE, WHICH WILL PROMOTE
CHANCES ON TUE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER THE PIEDMONT IN THE
MORNING, MVFR RANGE CLOUD BASES AND POSSIBLE CEILINGS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON (WITH RELATIVE HIGHEST CHANCES AT FAY), AND
GUSTY SWLY WINDS INTO THE 20S KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN FROM VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-6 THOUSAND FT MAY ALSO RESULT
FROM MID-LEVEL LIFT THAT WILL CONCURRENTLY OVERSPREAD NC. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY THU, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN
PIEDMONT.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...CA/LUCHETTI
AVIATION...MWS
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