529
FXUS62 KRAH 230636
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
136 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND RETREAT NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN RETURN SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN REACH THE SAVANNAH BASIN AND STALL
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO WAVER OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...
OVERVIEW: ALOFT, NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EWD OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PLAINS. A PAIR OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MS VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING, CONTINUING EWD ACROSS THE TN/OH
VALLEY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT/EARLY TUE. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD AND
OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER AROUND
TO MORE SWLY THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
WEATHER: HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S STILL REMAIN ON
TRACK. UNDER THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE, DEWPOINTS IN THE 7-15 DEGREE
RANGE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. RHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S TODAY SHOULD GRADUALLY RECOVER AFTER SUNSET.
INCREASING RETURN FLOW LATE TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SE TO NW. EXPECT INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AS THE DISTURBANCES ALOFT APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
NORTH AND NORTHEAST, BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUE. WITH THE ABOVE IN
MIND, TONIGHT'S LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR EARLY
OVERNIGHT, HOLDING STEADY OR RISING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 205 PM MONDAY...
OVERVIEW: ALOFT, NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AS
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE PLAINS. LOW-MID LEVEL
WSWLY/WLY FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER TO MORE NWLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
S/W DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE, THE
HIGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS BERMUDA. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
QUICKLY LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE AS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A
LOW OVER ONTARIO LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONG LLJ (45-55 KTS
OVER CENTRAL NC AT 925MB) WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK SEWD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE PARENT LOW OCCLUDES, A SECONDARY LOW
MAY DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE TUE, WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET. A
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST TUE NIGHT, POSSIBLY
MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY WED MORNING,
THOUGH TIMING VARIES AMONGST THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.
WEATHER: SOME CONTINUED PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY TUE, MOVING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE
RAIN/SPRINKLES SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM THE NW. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE A BIT TIGHT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US AND THE TROUGH/DEVELOPING LOW OVER/OFF THE NORTHEAST
US, WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING. SWLY WINDS COULD GUST TO 20-30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1255 PM MONDAY...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH LATE WEEK, YIELDING PRIMARILY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY LATE THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A POTENTIALLY DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE U.S. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
AND EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN
GENERALLY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE-NORMAL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S, WITH A
FEW WARMER AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH POTENTIALLY REACHING 70DEGREES.
THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
ALLOWING FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING—ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
MID 30S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NC, WITH LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.
ON THURSDAY, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTHEAST, IT WILL HAVE SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO TAP INTO
THAT COULD INITIATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PIEDMONT NEAR THE VA AND NC BORDER. WHILE YOU WOULD
HOPE FOR SOME FLURRIES ON CHRISTMAS DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
MORNING CLOUD COVER GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE FAR SOUTH.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 15–20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. AS THE SURFACE LOW JETS
OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY, A SHORT PERIOD
OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE, AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER THE
STRONGEST FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE APPEAR TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA, SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR NOW.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHIFTING OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY AND WARM. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50. MODELS
DIVERGE A BIT ON SUNDAY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF A DEEPER LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CONUS. THE ECMWF IS NOTABLY STRONGER AND WETTER
THAN THE GFS, WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING A SIMILAR PATTERN.
GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY, KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS
FOR SUNDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY THEN
CLEARING OUT BY MONDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE PATTERN
CLOSELY AS IT TREKS ACROSS THE US LATE THIS WEEK. ALL MODELS DO
HOWEVER SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING DRY AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ATOP A STABLE SURFACE LAYER/INVERSION WILL
FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING, AFTER
WHICH TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING WILL CAUSE SWLY SURFACE WINDS
TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY INTO THE 20S KTS AFTER ~16-
17Z/THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN FROM VFR CEILINGS AS
LOW AS 4-7 THOUSAND FT MAY ALSO RESULT FROM MID-LEVEL LIFT THAT WILL
CONCURRENTLY OVERSPREAD NC, WITH THE RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY AT
RWI.
OUTLOOK: MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THU, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WRN PIEDMONT, FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF IFR-MVFR ONES THROUGHOUT
CNTL NC FRI MORNING.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CA/LUCHETTI
AVIATION...MWS
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