348
FXUS62 KRAH 230720
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
219 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND RETREAT NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN RETURN SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN REACH THE SAVANNAH BASIN AND STALL
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO WAVER OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...
OVERVIEW: ALOFT, NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EWD OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PLAINS. A PAIR OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MS VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING, CONTINUING EWD ACROSS THE TN/OH
VALLEY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT/EARLY TUE. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD AND
OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER AROUND
TO MORE SWLY THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
WEATHER: HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S STILL REMAIN ON
TRACK. UNDER THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE, DEWPOINTS IN THE 7-15 DEGREE
RANGE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. RHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S TODAY SHOULD GRADUALLY RECOVER AFTER SUNSET.
INCREASING RETURN FLOW LATE TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SE TO NW. EXPECT INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AS THE DISTURBANCES ALOFT APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
NORTH AND NORTHEAST, BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUE. WITH THE ABOVE IN
MIND, TONIGHT'S LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR EARLY
OVERNIGHT, HOLDING STEADY OR RISING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 205 PM MONDAY...
OVERVIEW: ALOFT, NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AS
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE PLAINS. LOW-MID LEVEL
WSWLY/WLY FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER TO MORE NWLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
S/W DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE, THE
HIGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS BERMUDA. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
QUICKLY LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE AS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A
LOW OVER ONTARIO LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONG LLJ (45-55 KTS
OVER CENTRAL NC AT 925MB) WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK SEWD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE PARENT LOW OCCLUDES, A SECONDARY LOW
MAY DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE TUE, WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET. A
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST TUE NIGHT, POSSIBLY
MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY WED MORNING,
THOUGH TIMING VARIES AMONGST THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.
WEATHER: SOME CONTINUED PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY TUE, MOVING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE
RAIN/SPRINKLES SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM THE NW. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE A BIT TIGHT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US AND THE TROUGH/DEVELOPING LOW OVER/OFF THE NORTHEAST
US, WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING. SWLY WINDS COULD GUST TO 20-30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 219 AM TUESDAY...
UPPER PATTERN: AN ANOMALOUS MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER THE CENTRAL US THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK GENERATING PRIMARILY
WNWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC. THE RIDGE WILL DE-AMPLIFY LATE
THURSDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. A DEEPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM CANADA AND MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN US LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CHRISTMAS DAY: A SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY PROMOTING
SSWLY RETURN FLOW. ALOFT, A FEW MID-LEVEL VORTICITY PERTURBATIONS
WILL TRANSIT THE MID-ATLANTIC EARLY THURSDAY PRODUCING AT LEAST
INCREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA.
AREAS ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER MAY SEE ENOUGH SATURATION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY HAVE TRENDED DOWN
COMPARED TO PRIOR FORECASTS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S (NE) TO LOWER
70S (SW) ARE NOW EXPECTED. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT
ON FRIDAY SIGNALING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY WITH
PERSISTENT NELY FLOW THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CLOUDS AND COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S (NE) TO MID 60S
(SW).
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TRAVERSES THE OHIO VALLEY, MARGINAL
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
STRONGEST UPPER FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY TO OUR
NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LIGHT
RAIN TRICKLES ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER FRIDAY. ANY LINGERING RAIN
SHOULD ERODE AND EXIT TO OUR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS SLY FLOW RE-
ESTABLISHES OVER OUR AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IS
EXPECTED.
AFTER A DRY AND WARMER SATURDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S), A MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN US SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING WITH A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT POST-FRONTAL COOL DOWN
IN STORE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS/GEFS HAVE COME IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EURO/EPS WRT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER WAVE,
ALBEIT THE GFS/GEFS ARE STILL A BIT DRIER COMPARED TO THE EURO/EPS.
REGARDLESS, THINK THE NBM'S SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS ARE
SUFFICIENT FOR NOW ON SUNDAY. PRE-FRONTAL SLY GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
SEEM PLAUSIBLE WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. POST-FRONTAL GUSTS OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE (MAYBE AS HIGH AS
40 MPH) APPEAR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY AS
WELL.
POST-FRONTAL CAA WILL RAMP UP LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY WITH TEMPS
PLUMMETING INTO THE LOWER 30S AREA WIDE SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 MONDAY AFTERNOON (850
TEMPS WILL HOVER IN THE 5TH TO 10TH PERCENTILE DURING THIS PERIOD).
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS ARE THEN LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
HIGHS AGAIN ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ATOP A STABLE SURFACE LAYER/INVERSION WILL
FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING, AFTER
WHICH TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING WILL CAUSE SWLY SURFACE WINDS
TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY INTO THE 20S KTS AFTER ~16-
17Z/THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN FROM VFR CEILINGS AS
LOW AS 4-7 THOUSAND FT MAY ALSO RESULT FROM MID-LEVEL LIFT THAT WILL
CONCURRENTLY OVERSPREAD NC, WITH THE RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY AT
RWI.
OUTLOOK: MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THU, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WRN PIEDMONT, FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF IFR-MVFR ONES THROUGHOUT
CNTL NC FRI MORNING.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...LUCHETTI
AVIATION...MWS
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