412
FXUS62 KRAH 230900
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
400 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND RETREAT NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN RETURN SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN REACH THE SAVANNAH BASIN AND STALL
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO WAVER OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...
NWLY FLOW WILL RESULT OVER CNTL NC, AROUND A SUB-TROPICAL HIGH THAT
WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE NRN GULF AND DOWNSTREAM OF A RELATED
RIDGE THAT WILL AMPLIFY AND PROGRESS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MS
VALLEY. STRONG AND DEEP LOW-MID-LEVEL WAA, AND A RELATED SHIELD OF
PRECIPITATION NOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND LWR GREAT LAKES, WILL
PROGRESS EWD AND OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY. MEANWHILE, A TRAILING/SECONDARY ZONE OF WAA, IN A SHALLOWER
LAYER CENTERED AROUND 700 MB AND SUPPORTING A SEPARATE BAND OF
PRECIPITATION STRETCHING FROM OH TO THE NRN NC PIEDMONT, WILL
LIKEWISE PROGRESS EWD AND OFF THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE, ~1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE
NC OUTER BANKS WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY EWD AND TO NEAR BERMUDA BY THIS
EVENING, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS AND
OFFSHORE SRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC, BENEATH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MAXIMUM OF LOW/MID-LEVEL WAA. IN STRENGTHENING SWLY
TO WSWLY FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND DEEPENING LOW, A WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND RETREAT RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
TODAY, WITH ASSOCIATED SWLY SURFACE WINDS THAT WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-
30 MPH, WITH A FEW PEAK GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH, DURING THE AFTERNOON -
ABOUT 35% HIGHER THAN NBM. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, TRAILING THE FAST-
MOVING AND OFFSHORE DEEPENING LOW, WILL SETTLE SWD ACROSS SERN VA BY
WED MORNING.
OVERCAST AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL MOVE EWD AND
OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH ASSOCIATED WEST TO EAST
CLEARING OVER CNTL NC LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH, AND ESPECIALLY
EARLY, TONIGHT. WHILE TONIGHT SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY BE MOSTLY CLEAR,
STRATOCUMULUS, MOSTLY BANKED ALONG THE UPWIND SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS, MAY EDGE INTO THE NW PIEDMONT WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE
AT TIMES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND
INTO THE 60S TODAY, ABOUT A CATEGORY (3 F) HIGHER ON AVERAGE THAN
NBM. LIGHT WLY STIRRING IN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT WILL FAVOR MILDER
THAN RECENT DAYS (20S-30S F) COLD AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...
A SUB-TROPICL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
MEAN RIDGE THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. THE
RIDGE WILL BE BRIEFLY DAMPENED BY A SHORTWAVE PERTRUBATION THAT WILL
PROGRESS AROUND IT, FROM THE SERN N. PACIFIC THIS MORNING, TO THE
UPR MS VALLEY BY 00Z THU, TO THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC BY 12Z THU.
ACCOMPANYING AND SLIGHTLY PRECEDING THAT SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION, A
ZONE OF RELATIVELY STRONG AND DEEP LWR/MID-LEVEL WAA WILL PROGRESS
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY, LWR GREAT LAKES, AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC WED
NIGHT, IN A SIMILAR MANNER AND AREA AS THE ONE DOING SO THIS
MORNING.
AT THE SURFACE, THE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SWWD ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS ON WED AND STALL NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH BASIN
WED NIGHT. FOLLOWING AND FORCING THAT FRONT SWD, A FRESH, CP HIGH
NOW OVER THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MIGRATE SEWD AND ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
DESPITE THE PROGRESSION OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS CNTL NC ON WED,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD GIVEN MORE DRY AIR ADVECTION THAN COLD
BEHIND IT, AND ALSO NNWLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW FORECAST TO PREVAIL (AND
WEAKEN FROM 40 KTS IN THE MORNING TO 15-20 KTS BY SUNSET).
TEMPERATURES WILL CONSEQUENTLY RANGE THROUGH THE 60S, TO AROUND 70 F
OR SO OVER THE SRN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS ON WED. WED NIGHT LOWS
WILL BE MOSTLY 30S NE TO 40S SW, WITH THE LATTER REGULATED BY MULTI-
LAYERED CEILINGS, ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED WAA REGIME, WHICH
WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT-THU MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 219 AM TUESDAY...
UPPER PATTERN: AN ANOMALOUS MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER THE CENTRAL US THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK GENERATING PRIMARILY
WNWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC. THE RIDGE WILL DE-AMPLIFY LATE
THURSDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. A DEEPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM CANADA AND MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN US LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CHRISTMAS DAY: A SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY PROMOTING
SSWLY RETURN FLOW. ALOFT, A FEW MID-LEVEL VORTICITY PERTURBATIONS
WILL TRANSIT THE MID-ATLANTIC EARLY THURSDAY PRODUCING AT LEAST
INCREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA.
AREAS ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER MAY SEE ENOUGH SATURATION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY HAVE TRENDED DOWN
COMPARED TO PRIOR FORECASTS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S (NE) TO LOWER
70S (SW) ARE NOW EXPECTED. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT
ON FRIDAY SIGNALING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY WITH
PERSISTENT NELY FLOW THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CLOUDS AND COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S (NE) TO MID 60S
(SW).
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TRAVERSES THE OHIO VALLEY, MARGINAL
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
STRONGEST UPPER FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY TO OUR
NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LIGHT
RAIN TRICKLES ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER FRIDAY. ANY LINGERING RAIN
SHOULD ERODE AND EXIT TO OUR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS SLY FLOW RE-
ESTABLISHES OVER OUR AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IS
EXPECTED.
AFTER A DRY AND WARMER SATURDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S), A MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN US SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING WITH A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT POST-FRONTAL COOL DOWN
IN STORE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS/GEFS HAVE COME IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EURO/EPS WRT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER WAVE,
ALBEIT THE GFS/GEFS ARE STILL A BIT DRIER COMPARED TO THE EURO/EPS.
REGARDLESS, THINK THE NBM'S SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS ARE
SUFFICIENT FOR NOW ON SUNDAY. PRE-FRONTAL SLY GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
SEEM PLAUSIBLE WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. POST-FRONTAL GUSTS OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE (MAYBE AS HIGH AS
40 MPH) APPEAR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY AS
WELL.
POST-FRONTAL CAA WILL RAMP UP LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY WITH TEMPS
PLUMMETING INTO THE LOWER 30S AREA WIDE SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 MONDAY AFTERNOON (850
TEMPS WILL HOVER IN THE 5TH TO 10TH PERCENTILE DURING THIS PERIOD).
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS ARE THEN LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
HIGHS AGAIN ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ATOP A STABLE SURFACE LAYER/INVERSION WILL
FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING, AFTER
WHICH TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING WILL CAUSE SWLY SURFACE WINDS
TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY INTO THE 20S KTS AFTER ~16-
17Z/THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN FROM VFR CEILINGS AS
LOW AS 4-7 THOUSAND FT MAY ALSO RESULT FROM MID-LEVEL LIFT THAT WILL
CONCURRENTLY OVERSPREAD NC, WITH THE RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY AT
RWI.
OUTLOOK: MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THU, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WRN PIEDMONT, FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF IFR-MVFR ONES THROUGHOUT
CNTL NC FRI MORNING.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...LUCHETTI
AVIATION...MWS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page