252
FXUS62 KRAH 240621
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
121 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY, THEN
STALL NEAR THE SAVANNAH BASIN TONIGHT, WHEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS A WARM FRONT CHRISTMAS DAY, ONLY TO MOVE
SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW AND RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1240 PM TUESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTH GEORGIA AND
THIS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST INTO QUEBEC. THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTH INTO
MICHIGAN AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE
TONIGHT. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRIMARY CLOUD SHIELD IS CURRENTLY
BETWEEN US-1 AND I-95, WITH ISOLATED CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE WIND WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 25
MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, THIS IS DOWN A BIT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUSTS THROUGH 12:30PM HAVEN'T BEEN HIGHER THAN
25 MPH IN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE CLEARED OUT ALREADY. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUD
COVER WILL LINGER THE LONGEST TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT, PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND STALL TO THE SOUTH OF
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY, BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, WITH LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
CAA BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING S/W DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED TO OUR WEST OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES. THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIP WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER, WE CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW BANDS OF VERY
LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES (NEAR NC/VA
BORDER) ON THURSDAY, BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE QUICKLY MOVES TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING, WITH YET ANOTHER REINFORCING
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID
70S ACROSS THE AREA, COOLEST NORTHEAST TO WARMEST SOUTHWEST. LOW
TEMPS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY AND DEPEND ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND ANY ADDITIONAL QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES
POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S WEST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 40S SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 400 PM TUESDAY...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC AND NOSE
DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RIDGE MARKED
BY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER
ON FRIDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, INCLUDING OVER CENTRAL NC, CLOUDY AND
COOL CONDITIONS FROM NE FLOW WILL PREVAIL. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM MID-TO-UPPER-40S FAR NE TO UPPER-50S
TO LOWER-60S FAR SW, WHICH IS A BIT COOLER THAN NBM, AND BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE AND TRENDS THIS MAY LATER NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN
MORE. WHILE THE BEST FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE TO OUR NORTH, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES
TO TREND TOWARD A BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAKING IT INTO THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, ANY AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY LIGHT, A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH THROUGH
AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT, THIS PLUS
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOWS MILD (GENERALLY 40-50).
SATURDAY WILL TURN PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM AS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
REGION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, THOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WHICH WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES.
FOR NOW FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM LOWER-TO-MID-60S FAR NE TO MID-70S
FAR SW. THE BOUNDARY THEN LOOKS TO CONTINUE WAFFLING NEAR OUR AREA,
WITH LATEST GUIDANCE DROPPING IT BACK SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AGAIN LOOK QUITE MILD ON SATURDAY
NIGHT (LOWS IN THE LOWER-40S TO LOWER-50S) AND SUNDAY (HIGHS IN THE
MID-60S TO LOWER-70S).
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL THEN DRAG A STRONG COLD
FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL, SO FORECAST LOWS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT (MID-30S TO MID-40S) AND FORECAST HIGHS ON MONDAY (MID-
40S TO MID-50S) ARE MUCH MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. STILL,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS HIGH. CONTINUE TO THINK THE
NBM'S SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IS
REASONABLE, AS MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE DRYING AS IT CROSSES
THE MOUNTAINS AND THE BEST UPPER FORCING WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH.
SO ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF IS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. MOMENTUM
TRANSFER FROM GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATES 25-35 MPH POST-FRONTAL
GUSTINESS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY, AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
STEADY OR EVEN DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY EVEN AS SKIES CLEAR.
THE MAIN STORY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE COLD AS NW
FLOW CONTINUES BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR WEST AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. FORECAST LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
IN THE UPPER-TEENS TO MID-20S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS
AREAWIDE, WHILE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID-30S TO
LOWER-40S.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 120 AM WEDNESDAY...
VFR, AND MAINLY CLEAR, EXCEPT WITH PERIODS OF CIRRUS AND
CIRROSTRATUS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CNTL NC THIS
MORNING AND CAUSE INITIALLY LIGHT WSWLY SURFACE WINDS TO VEER TO NLY
AND STRENGTHEN/BRIEFLY GUST INTO THE TEENS KTS (TO AROUND 20 KTS AT
GSO/INT) THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: A LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY WILL
WAVER NORTH AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN MULTIPLE
PERIODS WITH A RISK OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT,
WITH A GREAT RISK OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE LATE SUNDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. -BLAES
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...GREEN
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...DANCO
AVIATION...MWS/BLAES
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