611
FXUS62 KRAH 240640
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
139 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY, THEN
STALL NEAR THE SAVANNAH BASIN TONIGHT, WHEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS A WARM FRONT CHRISTMAS DAY, ONLY TO MOVE
SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW AND RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1240 PM TUESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTH GEORGIA AND
THIS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST INTO QUEBEC. THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTH INTO
MICHIGAN AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE
TONIGHT. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRIMARY CLOUD SHIELD IS CURRENTLY
BETWEEN US-1 AND I-95, WITH ISOLATED CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE WIND WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 25
MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, THIS IS DOWN A BIT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUSTS THROUGH 12:30PM HAVEN'T BEEN HIGHER THAN
25 MPH IN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE CLEARED OUT ALREADY. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUD
COVER WILL LINGER THE LONGEST TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT, PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND STALL TO THE SOUTH OF
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY, BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, WITH LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
CAA BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING S/W DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED TO OUR WEST OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES. THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIP WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER, WE CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW BANDS OF VERY
LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES (NEAR NC/VA
BORDER) ON THURSDAY, BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE QUICKLY MOVES TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING, WITH YET ANOTHER REINFORCING
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID
70S ACROSS THE AREA, COOLEST NORTHEAST TO WARMEST SOUTHWEST. LOW
TEMPS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY AND DEPEND ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND ANY ADDITIONAL QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES
POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S WEST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 40S SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 139 AM WEDNESDAY...
UPPER PATTERN: AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL DE-AMPLIFY LATE THURSDAY AS A
SHORT-WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM CANADA AND MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN US LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. NWLY FLOW AND RISING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC
WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY: GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND COLDER WITH A POTENTIAL SHORT-
LIVED WEDGE AND ASSOCIATED NELY FLOW ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
LIMITED AS THE MAIN FORCING AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF US, BUT AREAS ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
FRIDAY. REGARDLESS, PERSISTENT NELY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOWER 40S (NE) TO MID 50S (SW). ANY LINGERING RAIN
SHOULD ERODE AND EXIT TO OUR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS SLY FLOW RE-
ESTABLISHES OVER OUR AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: AFTER A DRY AND WARMER SATURDAY (HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S), A MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE EASTERN US SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CAA. MOST GUIDANCE NOW HAS THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL NC EARLY MONDAY, WITH CAA RAMPING UP LATER DURING THE DAY.
AS SUCH, HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT, REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. STILL EXPECTING SOME
STRONGER POST-FRONTAL NWLY GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 20S EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 30S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL PEAK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OVERALL THOUGH ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT LOW
QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM (95TH PERCENTILES AMONGST ENSEMBLES PEAK AROUND
A FEW HUNDREDS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN).
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN LOWER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
A POTENTIALLY RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AS SUCH,
CURRENT SIGNS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHILLY START TO THE NEW YEAR.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 120 AM WEDNESDAY...
VFR, AND MAINLY CLEAR, EXCEPT WITH PERIODS OF CIRRUS AND
CIRROSTRATUS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CNTL NC THIS
MORNING AND CAUSE INITIALLY LIGHT WSWLY SURFACE WINDS TO VEER TO NLY
AND STRENGTHEN/BRIEFLY GUST INTO THE TEENS KTS (TO AROUND 20 KTS AT
GSO/INT) THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: A LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY WILL
WAVER NORTH AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN MULTIPLE
PERIODS WITH A RISK OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT,
WITH A GREAT RISK OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE LATE SUNDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. -BLAES
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...GREEN
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...LUCHETTI
AVIATION...MWS/BLAES
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