555
FXUS62 KRAH 242354
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
754 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT WILL WAVER BACK AND FORTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE
WEEKEND. EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 150 PM WEDNESDAY...
A BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ORIENTED EAST-WEST ACROSS THE REGION AND
SINKING TO THE SOUTH. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON,
AS THERE ARE JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MANY LOCATIONS REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 70S. OF THE THREE CLIMATE SITES, GREENSBORO IS THE ONLY
SITE THAT COULD THREATEN ITS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE (72 WHICH
OCCURRED IN 2015). THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE NW-SE ORIENTED THIS
EVENING, PIVOTING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THEN BECOMING N-
S ORIENTED AS IT EASES BACK TOWARD THE TRIAD LATE TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE TRIAD LATE TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA. NO CHANCE OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS WITH THIS BOUNDARY -
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE EAST WHERE THE
BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR WITH LIGHT WIND TO THE UPPER 40S
IN THE WEST WHERE SKIES WILL BE THE CLOUDIEST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 150 PM WEDNESDAY...
A WAVY FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THU WILL LIFT NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT INTO VA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
FRONT WILL SAG BACK SOUTH AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.
A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING ESE DURING THE MORNING WILL FAVOR A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF US-64
OF THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL TO NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
AFTER A COOL AND CLOUDY START, WE SHOULD MANAGE TO RISE SOME 15 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 60S E TO LOW 70S IN THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTHWEST FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN
COULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE TRIAD BUT AMOUNTS
WOULD BE LIGHT GIVEN GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT.
AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK SOUTH LATE TONIGHT, LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S NE TO UPPER 40S IN THE SW. WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION COULD FAVOR SOME
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN IN THE NW PIEDMONT EARLY FRI.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 150 PM WEDNESDAY...
* A FRONTAL ZONE WILL WAFFLE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH PERIODS OF CAD, AND RISE/FALL IN TEMPERATURES
* LIMITED PRECIPITATION, WITH THE BEST CHANCE MON WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT
THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM THU WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED OVER PORTIONS OF SC
EARLY FRI, WITH A CAD WEDGE SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
LOW AND MID-LEVEL WAA TIED TO A SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS OUR NORTH IN
THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WILL BRING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. A
SURFACE LOW IS ALSO FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE FRI
NIGHT OFF THE NC COAST. CAMS AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE NW AND COASTAL PLAIN, BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY
LIGHT. THE BIG STORY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 40S IN THE NORTH,
THOUGH THE MEDIAN VALUES ARE ROUGHLY FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S CENTRAL
AND NORTH TO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE SOUTH.
THE FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AGAIN SAT, SETTING US UP
FOR ANOTHER VERY MILD DAY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, EXCEPT LOW 60S
IN THE FAR NE. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WITH BRINGING THE FRONTAL ZONE
BACK SOUTH SAT NIGHT, USHERING IN LOWER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGHS SUN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
THE NEXT WEATHER STORY IS A STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO ARRIVE SOMETIME
MON AFTERNOON OR MON EVENING, DEPENDING ON WHICH ENSEMBLE SOLUTION
YOU EXAMINE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WE COULD STILL BE MILD IN THE
MIDDLE 50S TO MID 60S, BUT WE CERTAINLY ARE LOOKING TO TREND COLDER
AND BELOW NORMAL TUE/WED WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.
RAIN CHANCES ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, WITH THE PATTERN SOMEWHAT
FAVORING A DRY DOWNSLOPE. IF ANYTHING, THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATE
SUN NIGHT OR MON DAYTIME.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 750 PM WEDNESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION, BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING
THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. A QUICK MOVING DISTURANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. THE BULK OF
PRECIP AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE WILL
BE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, WE COULD SEE A BREIF PERIOD OF
RAIN AND/OR MVFR CIGS AT KGSO AND KINT FROM AROUND 10-15Z AND
POSSIBLY AT KRWI FROM 12-16Z. ELSWHERE, ANY CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR. BEHIND THE EXITING DISTURANCE, WE'LL SEE CIGS SCATTER
OUT, WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 8 TO 10 KTS, WITH
GUST OF 16-20 KTS.
OUTLOOK: A WAVERING BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE BACK AND FORTH
ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH CAROLINA.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GREEN
NEAR TERM...GREEN
SHORT TERM...KREN
LONG TERM...KREN
AVIATION...BSD/GREEN
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