278
FXUS62 KRAH 111127
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
630 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. YET
ANOTHER, REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 248 AM SUNDAY...
* INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
AND SANDHILLS.
* WINDY AND TURNING COLDER LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE DAY
* CLEAR AND COLD WITH DIMINISHING WIND TONIGHT
THE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK,
REACHING THE COAST SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE WINDS WILL REALLY BEGIN
TO INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE LATER
IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW AT 15-25
MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
LIKELY IN THE NW PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY FALL THROUGH
THE DAY, ESPECIALLY AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF CAA ARRIVES MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER AREA IS MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF
CENTRAL NC WHERE THE OVERLAP OF THE DRIEST FUELS, LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES, WARMEST TEMPERATURES, AND SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS
WILL BE. COLLABORATION WITH THE NCFS AND SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES REVEALED AREAS FROM UNION TO CUMBERLAND COUNTIES AS THE MAIN
AREA OF CONCERN LATE 11 AM THROUGH DUSK.
THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY AFTER DARK, WITH THE WINDS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 10 MPH OR LESS LATE. LOWS WILL DIP
INTO THE 20S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1235 AM SUNDAY...
* DRY AND MUCH COLDER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND EXTEND EAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY, WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. BEHIND THE PAIR OF WEEKEND COLD FRONTS, HIGHS WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL EVERYWHERE, WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE
OF 50 DEGREES. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH ALL LOCATIONS IN
THE 20S OR LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1235 AM SUNDAY...
* PRECIPITATION UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY
* NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BECOMING BELOW NORMAL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY, AND AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT
HIGHER THAN MONDAY, REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S. STILL NOT SEEING
MUCH PHASING BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND THE LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING THAT
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE GREAT LAKES LOW'S
COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES OVER VA/NC, BUT THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT.
THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EVERYWHERE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN
FROM THE TRIANGLE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WITH PRECIPITATION NOW
EXPECTED TO DEPART THE REGION MORE QUICKLY, THE CHANCE OF SNOW HAS
BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY EVENING AS COLDER AIR
FUNNELS BACK INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF CNTL NC BY 13Z, AFTER WHICH TIME
STRONG AND GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH
THE DAY. A BAND OF 6-8 THOUSAND FT CEILINGS AND WIDELY SCATTERED,
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ACROSS
ESPECIALLY THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK/SHALLOW CHARACTER
OF THE SHOWERS, AND THEIR HIGH BASES ATOP A VERY DEEP AND DRY
BOUNDARY AND SUB-CLOUD LAYER, SUGGESTS MOST OR ALL OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION WILL SUBLIMATE/EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE.
SO WHILE NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED, THE LOCALIZED
COOLING FROM SUBLIMATION/EVAPORATION MAY LOCALLY AND BRIEFLY ENHANCE
SURFACE WIND GUSTS, UP TO 35-40 KTS.
OUTLOOK: VFR, AT LEAST UNTIL A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION CENTERED AROUND THE DAY THU.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 248 AM SUNDAY...
THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER AREA IS MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF
CENTRAL NC WHERE THE OVERLAP OF THE DRIEST FUELS, LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES, WARMEST TEMPERATURES, AND SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS
WILL BE. COLLABORATION WITH THE NCFS AND SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES REVEALED AREAS FROM UNION TO CUMBERLAND COUNTIES AS THE MAIN
AREA OF CONCERN LATE 11 AM THROUGH DUSK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT/MWS
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...GREEN
LONG TERM...GREEN
AVIATION...BADGETT/MWS
FIRE WEATHER...BADGETT/CBL
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