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FXUS62 KRAH 111905
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
205 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWED BY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 203 PM SUNDAY...
WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE AREA-WIDE NWLY GUSTINESS OF UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH
THROUGH SUNSET. SCATTERED VIRGA CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. WHILE NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN PERHAPS
A ROGUE TRACE FROM THESE RADAR ECHOES, SOME ADDITIONAL LOCALLY
ENHANCED GUSTINESS MAY RESULT VIA EVAPORATIVE COOLING. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT GUSTS TO WANE POST-SUNSET WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF UP TO 20
MPH THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ANY LINGER CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 123 PM SUNDAY...
* DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
* MINIMUM RH VALUES 25-30% MONDAY AND TUESDAY
THE PERIOD BEGINS WILL QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS
PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY LATE TUESDAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVES SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA. IN RESPONSE HEIGHTS WILL
BEGIN TO FALL, AND THE UPPER FLOW WILL BACK TO SWLY TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG +1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE US WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE, PERSISTENT
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NC.
EXPECT A DRY AN QUIET START TO THE WEEK. MONDAY WILL FEATURE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, SAVE FOR SOME
FLEETING JET CIRRUS. AS THE SURFACE SHIFTS SOUTH, SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW WILL YIELD A WARMING TREND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RISING TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS.
SKIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THICKENING CLOUD COVER TUESDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT, MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 25-30% MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. DEAD FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 110 PM SUNDAY...
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WED, TRANSITIONING TO BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH FRI AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
* HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THU, MAINLY LIQUID WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF MIX/TRANSITION TO SNOW AS IT MOVES OUT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: ALOFT, A PAIR OF NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVES DROPPING SSEWD OUT OF CANADA WILL AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH ON WED AS THEY SWING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE, THE SRN STREAM S/W WILL GET PICKED UP
BY THE AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS
SLOWLY EWD, THE TWO NRN STREAM WAVES WILL MERGE FORMING A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE OH VALLEY, WHILE THE SRN STREAM WAVE TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE
NRN GULF WED NIGHT. THE SRN WAVE WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS FL AND OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC, WHILE THE NRN STREAM LOW MOVES EWD ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A WAVE
WILL LIFT NNEWD ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE OFFSHORE WED/WED NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL VA, ALONG THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, MEETING UP WITH THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT/THU, SHIFTING OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EWD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.
TEMPERATURES: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WED/WED NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 10-15 DEGREES TO BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM LOW 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS THU IN THE NW WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT
MIDNIGHT.
WEATHER: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
(HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH) THU WITH THE PASSAGE OF A POTENT S/W
ALOFT, WHICH WILL TRAIL THE SURFACE LOW. OVERALL QPF MAY BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT, HIGHEST ALONG THE VA BORDER. THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT,
STARTING AS RAIN BUT POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW BRIEFLY AS IT
DEPARTS, WITH STRONG CAA AND LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS (-8 TO-10 DEG
COLD NOSE) DESPITE DRYING IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ALOFT. LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IF/WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: MODEL AGREEMENT DECREASES OVER THE WEEKEND,
BUT GENERALLY EXPECT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
PLAINS/MS VALLEY AS A NRN STREAM S/W DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
FRI/SAT THEN SWINGS EWD SAT NIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA SUN. THIS WILL
BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH THERE IS MODEL
VARIABILITY WRT WHEN, WHERE, AND HOW MUCH. AT THE SURFACE, COLD HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT, MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
REGION FRI NIGHT/SAT AND EXITING AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN GIVE THE INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD AND LOW PREDICTABILITY. GENERALLY EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL, PERHAPS INCREASING TO NEAR NORMAL SAT/SAT
NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM SUNDAY...
WNWLY GUSTS OF UP TO 35 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES. ADDITIONAL ENHANCED GUSTINESS MAY
ACCOMPANY A LINE OF VIRGA AT KRDU/KRWI THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS TO WANE SOME WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL WNWLY GUSTS OF
UP TO 20 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH ~07Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED VFR
STRATOCU THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 248 AM SUNDAY...
THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER AREA IS MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF
CENTRAL NC WHERE THE OVERLAP OF THE DRIEST FUELS, LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES, WARMEST TEMPERATURES, AND SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS
WILL BE. COLLABORATION WITH THE NCFS AND SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES REVEALED AREAS FROM UNION TO CUMBERLAND COUNTIES AS THE MAIN
AREA OF CONCERN LATE 11 AM THROUGH DUSK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...LUCHETTI
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...LUCHETTI
FIRE WEATHER...BADGETT/CBL
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