542
FXUS62 KRAH 120758
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
257 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
SEASONABLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US
THROUGH TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 257 AM MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TUESDAY. HIGHS
TODAY GENERALLY 48-52. LOWS TONIGHT 25-30.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 257 AM MONDAY...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE SW FLOW INCREASING.
EXPECT SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT
OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NW. HIGHS MODERATE
INTO THE 55-60 RANGE, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 110 PM SUNDAY...
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WED, TRANSITIONING TO BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH FRI AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
* HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THU, MAINLY LIQUID WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF MIX/TRANSITION TO SNOW AS IT MOVES OUT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: ALOFT, A PAIR OF NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVES DROPPING SSEWD OUT OF CANADA WILL AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH ON WED AS THEY SWING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE, THE SRN STREAM S/W WILL GET PICKED UP
BY THE AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS
SLOWLY EWD, THE TWO NRN STREAM WAVES WILL MERGE FORMING A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE OH VALLEY, WHILE THE SRN STREAM WAVE TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE
NRN GULF WED NIGHT. THE SRN WAVE WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS FL AND OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC, WHILE THE NRN STREAM LOW MOVES EWD ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A WAVE
WILL LIFT NNEWD ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE OFFSHORE WED/WED NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL VA, ALONG THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, MEETING UP WITH THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT/THU, SHIFTING OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EWD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.
TEMPERATURES: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WED/WED NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 10-15 DEGREES TO BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM LOW 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS THU IN THE NW WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT
MIDNIGHT.
WEATHER: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
(HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH) THU WITH THE PASSAGE OF A POTENT S/W
ALOFT, WHICH WILL TRAIL THE SURFACE LOW. OVERALL QPF MAY BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT, HIGHEST ALONG THE VA BORDER. THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT,
STARTING AS RAIN BUT POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW BRIEFLY AS IT
DEPARTS, WITH STRONG CAA AND LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS (-8 TO-10 DEG
COLD NOSE) DESPITE DRYING IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ALOFT. LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IF/WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: MODEL AGREEMENT DECREASES OVER THE WEEKEND,
BUT GENERALLY EXPECT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
PLAINS/MS VALLEY AS A NRN STREAM S/W DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
FRI/SAT THEN SWINGS EWD SAT NIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA SUN. THIS WILL
BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH THERE IS MODEL
VARIABILITY WRT WHEN, WHERE, AND HOW MUCH. AT THE SURFACE, COLD HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT, MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
REGION FRI NIGHT/SAT AND EXITING AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN GIVE THE INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD AND LOW PREDICTABILITY. GENERALLY EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL, PERHAPS INCREASING TO NEAR NORMAL SAT/SAT
NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1235 AM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN ACROSS AND
OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY, WHEN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WITH ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...BADGETT/MWS
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