333
FXUS62 KRAH 121133
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
633 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
SEASONABLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US
THROUGH TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 257 AM MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TUESDAY. HIGHS
TODAY GENERALLY 48-52. LOWS TONIGHT 25-30.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 257 AM MONDAY...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE SW FLOW INCREASING.
EXPECT SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT
OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NW. HIGHS MODERATE
INTO THE 55-60 RANGE, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE DEVELOPING INTO
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY, SWINGING EAST THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE A PAIR OF SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF AND FL, THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE
SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY, THEN DEEPEN OVER NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY, DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THAT CROSSES CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY (MAINLY IN THE
SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN) AS THE FIRST SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
PASSES TO OUR EAST ALONG THE COAST, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BUT ANY AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS). THE POTENT SHORTWAVE
ALOFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT, BUT 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE TRENDED DRIER AND ESSENTIALLY HAVE NO PRECIPITATION WITH
IT ANYMORE ACROSS OUR REGION, AS DO THE VAST MAJORITY OF THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. SO WHILE A BIT OF RAIN OR SNOW CAN'T BE RULED OUT
AS THE COLD AIR RUSHES IN, CHANCES ARE DECREASING AND THE "COLD AIR
CHASING THE PRECIP" SETUP IS RARELY FAVORABLE FOR MUCH IF ANY SNOW.
SO IMPACTS IF ANY LOOK VERY LIMITED.
WEDNESDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH SW
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT, GENERALLY IN THE MID-TO-UPPER-50S, FOLLOWED
BY LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID-TO-UPPER-30S. THURSDAY'S HIGHS
MAY END UP OCCURRING AT MIDNIGHT AS CAA BEHIND THE FRONT DROPS
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY. NW POST-FRONTAL GUSTINESS
IS ALSO EXPECTED, IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. SOME BREEZINESS WILL
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY NIGHT, AND WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER-
TEENS TO LOWER-20S, WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER-TEENS AND
MAYBE EVEN SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME SPOTS.
DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TURN 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, IN THE LOWER-TO-MID-40S. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WON'T BE QUITE AS COLD BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. THE NEXT MID/UPPER TROUGH
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON SUNDAY, AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SE
CANADA, DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL NC
ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY TURN
A BIT WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER-40S TO LOWER-50S.
WHILE THE GFS IS LARGELY DRY OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE BEST UPPER
FORCING GOES TO OUR NORTH, THE ECMWF HAS A SHARPER TROUGH AND
DEVELOPS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A THREAT OF RAIN OR SNOW ON SUNDAY.
TOO MUCH DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS FOR ANYTHING BEYOND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. DRY AND SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER-TEENS TO MID-20S.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z/TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN ACROSS AND
OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY, WHEN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WITH ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...DANCO
AVIATION...BADGETT/MWS
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