034
FXUS62 KRAH 121818
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
118 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MODELS TRENDING DRIER FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) EXPECT A DRY AND QUIET START TO THE WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO 20-30% THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
2) MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER DURING THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY PERIOD
WITH VERY LIMITED TO NO IMPACTS FROM SNOW.
3) PROLONGED COLD PATTERN TO BEGIN LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: EXPECT A DRY AND QUIET START TO THE WEEK. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO 20-30% THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTH TUESDAY.
RESULTANT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL YIELD A WARMING TREND WITH COOL
SEASONABLE COOL TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT RISING TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO 20-30% THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE FUELS ARE DRY, LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
MITIGATE THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER DURING THE WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY PERIOD WITH VERY LIMITED TO NO IMPACTS FROM SNOW.
THE MID WEEK FORECAST HAS TRENDED DRIER AS A DAMPENING SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE SE US WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA,
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A GLANCING SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WITH A SECONDARY WINDOW FOR LIGHT RAIN AREA-WIDE
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND LARGELY
NEGLIGIBLE(LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH), PROVIDING LITTLE TO NO
RELIEF FOR ONGOING AND WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
FOR THURSDAY, MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS NORTHWARD
SHIFT EFFECTIVELY KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT TO THE
NORTH. CONSEQUENTLY, THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSITION TO ACCUMULATING
SNOW HAS DIMINISHED TO NEAR ZERO WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED
FOR CENTRAL NC.
KEY MESSAGE 3: PROLONGED COLD PATTERN STARTING LATE WEEK.
A SHIFT TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE THIS
WEEK AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS. PERSISTENT
TROUGHING EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THIS COLDER THAN
AVERAGE PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH.
WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE, PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVING
THROUGH REGION THAT WILL LEAD TO THE REINFORCEMENT/RELOADING OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP. HOWEVER, SPECIFIC
DETAILS REGARDING TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPES REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT
THIS EXTENDED TIME RANGE.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT FROM THE SW.
OUTLOOK: DRY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
BULK OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SE US COAST. A NORTHERN STREAM COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MAY
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS,
ALONG WITH BLUSTERY NW WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT.
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH VFR PREVAILING.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CBL
AVIATION...CBL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page