302
FXUS62 KRAH 130636
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
135 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MODELS ARE STABLE FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK SYSTEMS. BOTH STILL
STILL LACK OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL NC DUE TO LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) EXPECT DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO
WEDNESDAY.
2) MODELS ARE STABLE FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK SYSTEMS. THEY REMAIN
GENERALLY DRY WITH WITH VERY LIMITED TO NO IMPACTS FROM ANY LIGHT
SNOW LATE WED. NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR CHASES THE LIMITED MOISTURE
THROUGH THE REGION.
3) A MUCH COLDER PATTERN FOLLOWS THE SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: EXPECT A DRY AND QUIET TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO 20-25% THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL BE
HIGHER WEDNESDAY WITH 35-40 PERCENT EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SW 10 TO
15 MPH.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MODELS HAVE STABILIZED AND REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DURING
THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY PERIOD WITH VERY LIMITED TO
NO IMPACTS FROM ANY SHOWERS. QPF REMAINS VERY LOW WITH GENERALLY
TRACE TO 0.01 AMOUNTS EXPECTED. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT
THE CURRENT TIME.
THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE A GENERAL
PATTERN OF A SPLIT FLOW WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE STILL WELL
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AND THE MID/UPPER LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH/VORT MAX LIMITED OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS FEATURE STILL
TRACKS A BIT TOO FAR NORTH OF OUR REGION TO FAVOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE SE (MAINLY NEAR THE COAST)
WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH MOISTURE. THIS SHIFTS NE AND THEN WE HAVE
TO RELY ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY.
THERE DOES REMAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY
THURSDAY, MAINLY IN THE EAST. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BRIEF PERIOD
OF JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE AS THE COLD AIR SURGES SE INTO THE
REGION FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS (SOME OF WHICH POTENTIALLY COULD BE
MIXED WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THIS CHANCE WOULD BE
LIMITED AND NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
KEY MESSAGE 3: MUCH COLDER PATTERN STARTING THURSDAY.
A SHIFT TO MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS
THE STORM EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND STRONG NW FLOW DRIVES
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE 30S (40S SE). LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE 15-22.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1225 AM TUESDAY...
SEASONABLY CHILLY AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS,
THOUGH WITH SOME STRENGTHENING AND OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS TO 15 TO
18KT.
OUTLOOK: MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT-
WED MORNING, FOLLOWED BY THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT/VFR RAIN WED
AFTERNOON-EVENING. RAIN MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MOSTLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS WED NIGHT-THU MORNING, AS AN
INTENSE MID/UPR-LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC COLD FRONT
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG AND GUSTY NWLY WINDS WILL ALSO
RESULT BEHIND THAT COLD FRONT THROUGH THU.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BADGETT
AVIATION...BADGETT/MWS
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