202
FXUS62 KRAH 130845
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
345 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MODELS ARE STABLE FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK SYSTEMS. BOTH STILL
STILL LACK OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL NC DUE TO LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MOSTLY DRY
SOLUTION FOR THIS WEEKEND AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) EXPECT DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO
WEDNESDAY.
2) MODELS ARE STABLE FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK SYSTEMS. THEY REMAIN
GENERALLY DRY WITH WITH VERY LIMITED TO NO IMPACTS FROM ANY LIGHT
SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR CHASES THE LIMITED
MOISTURE THROUGH THE REGION.
3) A MUCH COLDER PATTERN FOLLOWS THE SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
4) CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN ON SATURDAY AND LIGHT SNOW ON
SUNDAY, BUT GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A DRY
SOLUTION AND ANY AMOUNTS LOOK QUITE LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
5) COLD AIR WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: EXPECT DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT A DRY AND QUIET TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO 20-25% THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL BE HIGHER
WEDNESDAY WITH 35-40 PERCENT EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SW 10 TO 15 MPH.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MODELS ARE STABLE FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK SYSTEMS.
THEY REMAIN GENERALLY DRY WITH WITH VERY LIMITED TO NO IMPACTS FROM
ANY LIGHT SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR CHASES THE
LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGH THE REGION.
MODELS HAVE STABILIZED AND REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DURING THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY PERIOD WITH VERY LIMITED TO NO IMPACTS
FROM ANY SHOWERS. QPF REMAINS VERY LOW WITH GENERALLY TRACE TO 0.01
AMOUNTS EXPECTED. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THE CURRENT
TIME.
THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE A GENERAL
PATTERN OF A SPLIT FLOW WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE STILL WELL
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AND THE MID/UPPER LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH/VORT MAX LIMITED OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS FEATURE STILL
TRACKS A BIT TOO FAR NORTH OF OUR REGION TO FAVOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE SE (MAINLY NEAR THE COAST)
WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH MOISTURE. THIS SHIFTS NE AND THEN WE HAVE
TO RELY ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY.
THERE DOES REMAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY
THURSDAY, MAINLY IN THE EAST. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BRIEF PERIOD
OF JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE AS THE COLD AIR SURGES SE INTO THE
REGION FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS, SOME OF WHICH POTENTIALLY COULD BE
MIXED WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS MAINLY TRUE IN THE
EAST WHERE THE COLD AIR WILL HAVE THE MOST TIME TO REACH BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS. HOWEVER, THIS CHANCE WOULD BE LIMITED AND NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A MUCH COLDER PATTERN FOLLOWS THE SYSTEM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
A SHIFT TO MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS
THE STORM EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND STRONG NW FLOW DRIVES
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. NW WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE 30S (LOW 40S SE). LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE 15-22. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
TO-MID-40S.
KEY MESSAGE 4: CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN ON SATURDAY AND LIGHT
SNOW ON SUNDAY, BUT GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A
DRY SOLUTION AND ANY AMOUNTS LOOK QUITE LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
WITHIN BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US, A SHORTWAVE
WILL DIVE SE INTO THE TN VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE CROSSING
CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN CAN'T BE RULED OUT
WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH ON SATURDAY, BUT SIMILAR TO THE MIDWEEK
SYSTEM, QPF IF ANY IS VERY LOW. WHEN THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
THROUGH ON SUNDAY, TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW IF ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS, BUT MOISTURE LOOKS VERY
LIMITED AND THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF NOW LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE DRY
GFS. GIVEN A MINORITY OF THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT SOMETHING
MEASURABLE, THE FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, BUT ANY AMOUNTS
AGAIN LOOK VERY LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 5: COLD AIR WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
BEHIND SATURDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BACK TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL. SUNDAY'S AND MONDAY'S HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
LOWER-TO-MID-40S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER-TEENS TO MID-
20S.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1225 AM TUESDAY...
SEASONABLY CHILLY AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS,
THOUGH WITH SOME STRENGTHENING AND OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS TO 15 TO
18KT.
OUTLOOK: MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT-
WED MORNING, FOLLOWED BY THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT/VFR RAIN WED
AFTERNOON-EVENING. RAIN MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MOSTLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS WED NIGHT-THU MORNING, AS AN
INTENSE MID/UPR-LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC COLD FRONT
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG AND GUSTY NWLY WINDS WILL ALSO
RESULT BEHIND THAT COLD FRONT THROUGH THU.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BADGETT/DANCO
AVIATION...BADGETT/MWS
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