177
FXUS62 KRAH 140006
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
705 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES SINCE PRIOR FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MULTIPLE WAVES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. A
BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE
SUNRISE THURSDAY BUT LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
2) BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THU AND FRI.
3) PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A BRIEF, TRACE AMOUNT OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW
ALONG THE VA BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND.
4) BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN SAT NIGHT-TUE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MULTIPLE WAVES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY BUT LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
A RATHER DYNAMIC NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A SOUTHERN STREAM JET STREAK WILL EJECT
EAST ACROSS FL/GA. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL LKELY GENERATE
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AND INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECTING TRACE TO MAYBE A FEW
HUNDREDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME.
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH'S BASE WILL PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM JET LATER WEDNESDAY. UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES, AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL POSSIBLY
GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE THURSDAY.
INITIALLY STARTING AS VERY LIGHT RAIN, TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY COOL ENOUGH TO BRIEFLY MIX OR CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS BETWEEN ~06 AND 12Z THURSDAY.
OVERALL, THE LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD CONCUR WITH PRIOR FORECASTS THAT
IF THE COLD AIR CAN CATCH THE DEPARTING MOISTURE (WHICH IN GENERAL
IS NOT OVERLY ANOMALOUS OVER OUR AREA), THEN AT BEST SOME LOCATIONS
MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WOULD
NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS 1) SATURATION/OMEGA IN THE DGZ IS
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND AS SUCH ANY EVAPORATIVE COOLING/WET
BULBING MAY BE LIMITED OVERALL AND 2) FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER-LEVELS RAMPING UP JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
IN THAT OPTIMAL TEMPORAL PERIOD. IT'S WORTH NOTING, HOWEVER, THAT
THE HRRR IS AN OUTLIER HERE AND DOES MAINTAIN DEEPER SATURATION
DEPTH DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH IF REALIZED COULD SUPPORT A DUSTING
AND/OR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. FOR NOW THOUGH, WILL GO WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS AND KEEP ACCUMULATIONS TO ZERO.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THU AND FRI.
ALOFT, THE S/W TROUGH WILL SWING EWD ACROSS THE REGION THU AND LIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA THU NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, A CP
AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON THU, WHILE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS THE SURFACE HIGH TRACKS
EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD BE IN THE
1260-1270 METER RANGE. IN ADDITION TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT,
DEEP MIXING IS ALSO EXPECTED. AS A RESULT, THU SHOULD BE BREEZY,
WITH SOME 25-30 KT WINDS POSSIBLY MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE
SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY FRI, WITH WINDS BECOMING SLY-SWLY,
BUT STILL BREEZY/GUSTY WITH A CONTINUED TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
AS A DEEP LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND STRENGTHENING
LLJ OVER THE AREA. POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, WITH RH IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3: PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A BRIEF, TRACE AMOUNT OF RAIN
AND/OR SNOW ALONG THE VA BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND.
WHILE THE FORECAST SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY SAT AND SUN, THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW, MAINLY ALONG
THE VA BORDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF A S/W TROUGH ALOFT. HOWEVER,
TIMING OF THE S/W REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AS IS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND OR ACCUMULATE.
REGARDLESS, EXPECT TRACE-LIGHT AMOUNTS AT BEST, WITH LITTLE TO NO
OVERALL IMPACTS. OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 4: BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN SAT
NIGHT-TUE.
THE BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN SAT
NIGHT/SUN AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL SOME MODEL VARIABILITY WRT TIMING THE ARRIVAL/DEPARTURE OF THE
COLD AIR (THERE WILL BE TWO SEPARATE ARCTIC HIGHS THAT COULD IMPACT
THE AREA BETWEEN SAT AND TUE NIGHT), RESULTING IN A WIDE SPREAD IN
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR THAT PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 705 PM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD AT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR LOW-END LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, PRIMARILY IN THE 01Z-09Z
TIME FRAME AT INT/GSO/RDU AND 03Z-12Z AT RWI/FAY, COURTESY OF A 35-
40 KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE SW AT 1500-2000 FT AGL DURING THAT
PERIOD, AS SURFACE WINDS BLOW FROM THE SW UNDER 10 KTS. OTHERWISE, A
FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS WITH LOWERING BASES WED.
THESE CIGS ARE LIKELY TO STAY VFR THROUGH 00Z/15TH, ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT CIGS MAY DIP TO MVFR AFTER 20Z/14TH AT ALL
SITES. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT, UNDER 8 KTS, FROM THE SW
THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN AFTER DAYBREAK, SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
9-13 KTS WITH SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KTS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
LOOKING BEYOND 00Z THU, THE CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CIGS WILL INCREASE
AFTER 00Z AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL NC TERMINALS
BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z/15TH, MOVING NW TO SE. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO BE FROM THE NW WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW-HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE, AND THIS MAY END AS A SHORT PERIOD OF A LITTLE SNOW LATE
WED NIGHT OR EARLY-MORNING THU, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN THU MORNING, PREVAILING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15-25 MPH ARE LIKELY
MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THU, FRI, AND AGAIN SAT, WITH LLWS
POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. -GIH
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LUCHETTI/10
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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